Closing Time: Clay Buchholz bounces back; another Huston Street advisory

11 Aug
2012
by in General

I didn't have any problem burying Clay Buchholz in April. He turned in five horrendous starts (8.69 ERA, 15 walks against 16 strikeouts) and the AL East is full of land mines to begin with. He's also the slowest worker in the game today, so I had no problem keeping this young righty off my television for a few months.

Alas, I've missed a nice comeback story. Buchholz has turned into the only reliable big name in Boston's rotation this summer.

Buchholz was on top of his game in Friday's win at Cleveland, going the route in a tidy 104-pitch performance (2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K). He's fashioned a 1.15 ERA over his last five turns, despite a tricky stretch of opponents (White Sox, Tigers, Rangers in Arlington). The rally has been sparked by a resurgent change-up and a hybrid splitter that's working. The change is especially important for Buchholz, as left-handed batters were hammering him back in the spring; you need a path to get outs when you don't hold the platoon advantage. 

If you back up Buchholz's results to the middle of May, he's posted a 2.80 ERA over his last 13 turns. The rough-and-tumble division doesn't offer any soft landing spots, but at least he misses the next series against the Yanks. I'll be open minded for next week's start at Baltimore, and I'll watch with interest when Mike Trout and Co. head into Fenway the following week.

To be clear, Buchholz isn't going in the Circle of Trust yet. That's life in this division, life in a mixed-league world. But I'm willing to consider him a preferred streamer until further notice, and I'll use him on a few of my own teams until it burns me. Buchholz is unclaimed freight in about 40 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• When you watch Huston Street, you figure everything should come easy. Smooth delivery, dominant ratios, clean saves, everyone's happy in the end. But Street's proven to be one of those high-maintenance pitchers, someone with an unfortunate knack of falling into consistent injuries, often of the fluke variety.

The latest hit came Friday in Pittsburgh, at the very end of Street's 21st handshake. Street strained his calf while covering first base for the final out, and it sounds like a DL stint is imminent.

"We got some ice on it," manager Bud Black told The Chicken the club's official site after the victory. "We don't know the significance of it. As always, we'll see how it sets up overnight. But my early premonition is that it's going to put him out for a while. Hopefully I'm wrong."

These bumps in the road are common with Shakedown Street. Look at his innings pitched, dating back from 2008: 70, 61.2, 47.1, 58.1, 36 this year. We live with the medical history because he's still a sound pitcher, especially this season (perfect on saves, 0.75 ERA, 0.53 WHIP). But when we draft Street in March, we know reinforcements will be needed somewhere down the line.

If talent were the sole factor in picking a ninth-inning substitute, Luke Gregerson becomes the obvious Padre of interest. He's rolling through another sound year (2.56 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 15 walks, 55 strikeouts) and he's the primary set-up man here. A natural ascent to the ninth would probably be painless.

But there's always a chance Black will decide to keep Gregerson in that eighth-inning role; sometimes managers like to do that sort of thing. Journeyman Dale Thayer was a temporary closer earlier in the year (five saves), though his ratios (3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHP, about three strikeouts per every walk) aren't as good as Gregerson's. Thayer has settled into the seventh-inning role of late.

Both arms are widely available (free in 95 percent of Yahoo! leagues), so head to the wire and take your pick. If I had just one grab at this saves situation, I'd go with Gregerson. We'll see what the skipper has in mind, if and when a replacement is needed.

• The Brewers closing situation became more clear during Friday's giveaway in Houston. John Axford blew a ninth-inning save in ugly fashion, recording just one out and missing the zone on 12 of 22 pitches. Flavour of the Month Jim Henderson watched the damage from the bullpen — he was warming up during the inning as well — but after Axford's latest misstep, the Brewers will probably hand the reigns to the 29-year-old journeyman, see if he can handle it. If you haven't already sworn off this bullpen wildfire, you'll find Henderson ready to go in 90 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• Eventually Manny Machado is going to be challenged at the big league level, but it hasn't happened in the first two days of his career. He collected two hits against Will Smith on Thursday, then blasted a pair of homers off meatball artist Luke Hochevar on Friday. Someone tell the kid that AL East pitchers are, by and large, a lot better than this.

Every logical part of my roto sense encourages me to stay grounded on Machado, who just turned 20 and was solid-not-great in Double-A this year. And everyone knows an eight at-bat sample isn't indicative of anything. But maybe this will be a rare instance where a precocious prospect, with a star pedigree, hits the ground running in the majors. You can still take a spin on Machado in 75 percent of Yahoo! pools.

There's one other market element to consider with Machado: a sell-high ticket. If you took a what-the-heck flier on him a few days ago but don't need him as an immediate starter, maybe it's a good idea to shop him today. Yes, I said those same words back when he was recalled, but it doesn't make the angle any less worthwhile. Baseball is hard. Everyone hits a rough patch eventually. Discuss your Machado plans and expectations in the comments, por favor.

• I've tried to be patient with James McDonald, but eventually you have to cut the cord when the results get messy. There's a lot of fish in the mixed-league sea. McDonald couldn't hold a 7-1 lead against the Padres on Friday, ultimately adding seven more runs to his ledger. He's been a hot mess in the second half (8.71 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 21 walks against 26 strikeouts), and that's despite a reasonable schedule (the Astros also beat him).

Another home start comes next week (against LA), and then it's a road start against the Padres. A strong outing against the Dodgers might push McDonald back into the streaming pool the following week, in theory. But you can't help but wonder if he's simply wearing down in the dog days of August. I've cut all of my McDonald shares; he'll have to force his way back into the circle.

• The other unhappy cut of the day lands on Will Middlebrooks. The Boston rookie suffered a broken wrist at Cleveland and I'll be shocked if he plays again this year.

If you need to pick up a new corner, here are some names to consider: Garrett Jones (25 percent), Yonder Alonso (18 percent), Brandon Belt (16 percent), Todd Frazier (get real, 14 percent), Tyler Colvin (13 percent) and Eric Chavez (10 percent, fun until he breaks). The first five players on this list offer dual-position eligibility, too.

For those digging super-deep on this one, Jeff Keppinger (four percent), Jordan Pacheco (three percent) and Steve Lombardozzi (three percent) have their positive points. And who knows, maybe Danny Valencia (three percent) will do something as the Middlebrooks stand-in.

Tags: , era, , , Gregerson, Huston Street, Luke Gregerson, , , Shakedown Street, ,
No Comments Share Read More

Closing Time: Mike Fiers shocks the world; Jeremy Affeldt grabs the baton

08 Aug
2012
by in General

Some Closing Time editions have a dominant theme, and some CT versions are more about quick hitters and shorter stories. The fresh edition follows the latter theme, so get the bulletry ready and let's jump all around the league.

• Here's what I'd like to know about Milwaukee right-hander Mike Fiers: how did he have a 4.42 ERA through 10 Triple-A starts? He's amped up his game in the majors (1.80 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), pushing up his strikeout rate and trimming his walk rate. He was especially on the mark during Tuesday's victory over Cincinnati (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K, perfect game into the seventh), out-dueling Cy Young frontrunner Johnny Cueto. Here's some scouting video to start off your morning; add some milk and fruit as you see fit.

Some of the usual luck signs are flashing with Fiers: he's stranding runners 83.6 percent of the time and his HR/FB clip is a tiny 3.3 percent. The FIP estimation checks in at 1.80, while xFIP pushes up to 3.37 and SIERA is at 3.23. And it's not like batters never square this guy up: Fiers is allowing line drives 27.3 percent of the time, a lofty clip.

A simple regression call is never a full answer; if I had to pick an over/under ERA for Fiers from this point, I'd go with something in the mid-3s. His next turn is a dangerous one, a thin-air assignment in Colorado. Philadelphia (home) and Pittsburgh (road) follow after that. What's your call on this one, Fiers Nation? Are you selling or holding?

• Ryan Dempster's debut with the Rangers was a hot mess, but he made amends with Tuesday's win at Boston (6.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K). If not for an Ian Kinsler miscue in the seventh inning, Dempster would have posted seven clean bagels. Two-thirds of his pitches were strikes, and he helped his own cause with a Carl Crawford pick-off. Nice comeback, big guy.

The assignments won't get easier, as the AL East Tour continues. Dempster is at New York next Monday (no way I use him there) and then he heads to Toronto for the weekend (let's see how healthy the Blue Jays are by that day). Minnesota and Tampa Bay close out his month, with both of those turns coming in Arlington. In most mixed leagues, I'm fine to let Dempster be someone else's problem. His skill set doesn't translate favorably to Rangers Ballpark (right-handed arm with a fly-ball bias).

Texas rookie Mike Olt had another uneventful day: 0-for-2, one walk, two strikeouts. He's yet to collect an extra base hit through four games, though he's seeing plenty of pitches (three walks, four strikeouts). Two-thirds of his plate appearances have come against left-handed pitching, and he's yet to bat higher than eighth in any game. Bottom line, he's just a part-time member of this lineup right now, and I don't see any reason he has to be owned in standard mixed leagues.

• Giants manager Bruce Bochy has been uttering the C-word this week, and struggling reliever Santiago Casilla apparently is the man left behind. Bochy didn't drop Casilla's name when the particulars were being disclosed before Tuesday's game, and then the skipper used Sergio Romo (set-up) and Jeremy Affeldt (final four outs) to put away the Cardinals.

Affeldt didn't have to navigate the meat of the St. Louis order — he faced Jon Jay, Rafael Furcal, Matt Carpenter and Daniel Descalso — but a handshake is a handshake. He'd be my clear roto choice in this bullpen if I had pick of the litter today, no questions asked. It seems like the Giants are finally ready to wash their hands of Casilla (he's been terrible for two months), and Affeldt offers the perfect mix of effectiveness (2.56/1.14) and durability. Romo and lefty Javier Lopez also figure to see chances, here and there.

• Is the pixie dust starting to wear off for Indians closer Chris Perez? He was just about untouchable over four dazzling months, but he's suffered two horrific blown saves over the last three games (1.1 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K). The horse has already left the barn on Cleveland's season, at 50-60, so there's no immediate pressing need to change the ninth-inning routine. But if and when Manny Acta wants to consider a switch, eighth-inning man Vinnie Pestano (1.29 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 57 Ks in 49 innings) would be an outstanding choice.

• The Rockies scored another surprising victory at Los Angeles; where did this pitching come from? The Dodgers have just one run through the first 18 innings of the series. Josh Rutledge (four hits, three RBIs; you know all about him) and Eric Young (3-for-4, two runs) did the damage at the top of the Colorado order.

Young would be an intriguing roto commodity if we knew he'd play all the time: he has a .295/.364/.380 slash over 129 at-bats (that plays at the leadoff spot), and he's stolen 12 bases and scored 28 runs in his limited action. But you know how it goes with skipper Jim Tracy — Young is probably one collar away from returning to the bench. If Young gets a firm endorsement at any point this month, be aggressive on your waiver wire. He's currently unowned in 99 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• Wei-Yin Chen (46 percent) looks like the best streaming option for the Thursday slate. He's been untouchable for a month (1.95 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) and he's at home against the Royals. Joe Saunders (14 percent) might sneak up on some people, working at lefty-favoring PNC Park. I'm not interested in Clay Buchholz at Cleveland (been burned too many times before) or Mike Leake at Chicago (three missteps in his last four turns).

Speed Round: Chris Johnson does not have a power-hitter's profile (.433 slugging percentage over 312 pro games), so his mad run with Arizona (10-for-29, five homers) makes little sense. Obviously you'll roll with it while it lasts, but keep him on a short leash. … I'm surprised Steve Cishek is still unowned in 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. His elite ERA (1.74) and strikeout rate (one per inning) will help anyone, and his 1.22 WHIP is fine as well. He's converted six straight save chances since the middle of July, and he hasn't allowed a run since late June. How much evidence do you need to see? This is legit. … Greg Holland had an easy handshake against the White Sox, getting three fly outs (one to the track) in a 5-2 victory. So long as he keeps throwing strikes, he should be fine. … With John Axford needing a day off (he recorded five outs on Monday), the Brewers led Calgary native Jim Henderson close out the Fiers win. Henderson was originally property of the Expos, drafted in 2003. He's been effective in his first taste of MLB life, working six sharp innings (6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K). If The Axman loses his way again, perhaps Henderson will get the call before Francisco Rodriguez or Kameron Loe. Clip and save, eh? … Brandon Belt had two singles, two steals and a run scored at St. Louis, which will probably earn him the bench in the World of Bochy. The Giants reportedly are kicking the tires on Lyle Overbay, recently designated for assignment by Arizona. … Although the Red Sox haven't made a commitment to Franklin Morales yet, he's been "penciled in" as Saturday's starter at Cleveland. Morales has a 3.06 ERA in six starts this year, with 11 walks against 35 strikeouts over 32.1 innings. What's the hold up, Bobby V? You're not exactly coaching the 1971 Orioles; you could use some help in the rotation.

Fantasy advice from the Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Minute:

Tags: , , , , , Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Fiers, , , Santiago Casilla, ,
No Comments Share Read More

Closing Time: Where does Yu Darvish go from here?

07 Aug
2012
by in General

We're going to play it straight with today's Yu Darvish lead. No puns, no buzz, no outlandish statements. Right now, he's just another name pitcher struggling to put things together, and the fantasy community is struggling to figure it out as well.

The Red Sox were the latest team to knock Darvish around, collecting 11 hits and six runs against him over 6.2 innings Monday at Fenway. Darvish walked four, struck out nine. He's had four crooked-number starts in his last five appearances, pushing his ERA up to 4.57 and his WHIP up to 1.46.

Some misconceptions have crept into the Darvish discussion of late, things we need to clear up as we go under the hood. Let's get our facts straight on a few things:

-- The home ballpark isn't causing Darvish's poor year. His ratios are 4.55 and 1.32 at home, 4.59 and 1.59 on the road. The strikeout rate is almost the same in both locations. He's allowed more homers at home, he's walked a lot more men on the road. Mash it all together and it's basically a wash. It's not Arlington's fault.

-- Darvish's struggles aren't a recent thing. After a surprising 2.18 ERA (despite a 1.42 WHIP) in April, here's what we've seen in every month since: 4.50/1.50, 4.15/1.24, 5.74/1.43, 10.03/2.12 (that's over just two turns). Sure, he's collapsed since the break, but none of these ratios are acceptable.

-- Bad luck isn't driving the story. Okay, to be fair, the ERA estimators all spit out better numbers than the current 4.57 ERA he's carrying around. Darvish currently has a 3.80 estimate from FIP, a 3.90 xFIP, a 3.90 SIERA and a 4.45 tERA. None of those resting points would make him a mixed-league star, even with all of his strikeouts, but better is better.

Let's look at some of the luck stats individually. Darvish has a .312 BABIP, 21 points above the AL average. That's unfortunate, but it doesn't make him the black cat of the decade. His strand rate (70 percent) is an eyelash under the league mark of 72.6 percent. His HR/FB clip (10.4 percent) is 1.1 percent under the mean. None of these meters are significantly out of whack, and the last number is actually a shade lucky.

The most puzzling part of Darvish's disappointing year has been his bloated walk rate; his control was impeccable during his five Japanese seasons. While his K/9 has actually gone up in America (from 9.5 to 10.3), the free-passes have spiked to a level no one expected (1.9 to 4.97). Here's where we have plenty of theories and no obvious answers. Is Darvish not getting consistent calls on borderline pitches? Is he giving MLB hitters too much credit? Are batters doing a better job of solving Darvish after they see him a few times? The O-swing percentage against Darvish (hacks out of the strike zone) is right around the league average, a notable disappointment when you consider how much his pitches move.

The schedule isn't letting up for Darvish - his next three turns are versus Detroit, at Toronto and against Baltimore. At least he draws Rick Porcello in the Tigers turn, not Justin Verlander. For all of Darvish's ups and downs, he's managed to pull 11 wins out of his 21 starts. He's enjoyed 5.24 runs per start, the 11th-best support in the majors. And he's snagged wins on three occasions where he didn't complete the sixth inning.

You're on your own with Darvish for the rest of the year. He's not on any of my teams and I doubt that changes down the stretch. If you need the strikeout upside, at least he provides that. The supporting cast is strong around him, not that it solves everything (looking at you, Roy Oswalt; worried for you, Ryan Dempster).

But let's not forget the righty is still two weeks from his 26th birthday. He's going to make adjustments and should get appreciably better someday, even if it's not in 2012. Keep in mind he's still getting used to the five-man rotation in America; he worked every sixth day in Japan. You might get a nice value on Darvish next spring, when you no longer have to pay a buzz upgrade. Discuss your expectations, today and tomorrow, in the comments.

• If you want a location-driven roto pitcher for your roster, look at Erik Bedard in Pittsburgh. He posted nothing but bagels against the Diamondbacks on Monday, pushing his home ratios down nicely (2.38 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). He's allowed just one homer at mistake-hiding PNC Park. The numbers get ugly when Bedard works out of a suitcase: he's a 6.75 ERA and 1.76 WHIP man for road starts, where he's served up 10 homers over 54.2 innings.

The Pirates just kicked off a lengthy homestand, so Bedard is trustable for the next couple of weeks. He'll draw the Padres (yes, please) on Saturday, and the Dodgers visit PNC Park after that. The erratic lefty is ready for pickup in 73 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• Every club in the majors is going to give us some mixed-league players to consider, even the dreadful teams. That's why we discussed Houston's Brett Wallace last week, and that's why we'll talk about Justin Maxwell now. The Astros are letting the 28-year-old outfielder settle into a regular job, and he's posted some respectable numbers (12 homers over 190 at-bats, 32 runs, 19 walks, .511 slugging).

There's a significant platoon split that mucks up the story somewhat: Maxwell is a .294/.402/.574 slasher against lefties, but just a .230/.282/.475 bat against the righties. Obviously we live in a right-handed world. But Houston seems committed to playing him most of the time anyway, and he's not a bad category juice play (note two steals in the last three games, and a 15-for-19 rate for his brief career) if you're in a deeper pool. Maxwell's Silver Hammer is an unowned commodity in 98 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• The Rockies enjoyed a rare night of strong pitching, parlaying that into a 2-0 win at Chavez Ravine. Meanwhile, Jim Tracy earned our wrath by sitting Josh Rutledge, Wilin Rosario and Tyler Colvin (okay, it was against a lefty starter, Chris Capuano). Colvin should be in line for regular at-bats now that Michael Cuddyer and Todd Helton are hurt (Helton's out for the year), but I'm not making any hard assumptions where Tracy is involved. Here's hoping the team cleans house, top to bottom at the end of the year.

Speed Round: Bruce Bochy is prepared to go full-committee with his bullpen, which is good news for lefty Jeremy Affeldt and bad news for struggling righty Santiago Casilla. Right-handed Sergio Romo should also see some chances here and there. … Mike Moustakas was given the night off Monday, partly due to his sore knee and partly due to the presence of Chicago lefty Chris Sale. … Andrew Bailey (thumb) is amping up his rehab, set to pitch back-to-back games later this week at Triple-A Pawtucket. He might be with the Red Sox next week. … Brett Jackson's second MLB game wasn't much fun: four strikeouts. He had 158 whiffs at Triple-A Iowa, the biggest fly in the ointment. … Ben Sheets went the pitch-to-contact route at Philly: 7.1 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 0 K. With a K/BB ratio over three, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt going forward, and certainly at New York this weekend. … After a brief lull on the bases, Mike Trout got back to work: three swipes at Oakland. … Joey Votto (knee) is running at close to full speed, which means he's probably close to a rehab assignment. … As feared, Matt Garza (elbow) is out indefinitely. Given where the Cubs season is headed, I'm not confident he pitches again in 2012. … John Axford retired five of six Cincinnati batters en route to the rarest of all things: an undramatic save. Busy Clippers, you win again.

Fantasy advice from the Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Minute:

Other popular content on the Yahoo! network:
• Browns name rookie Brandon Weeden the starting quarterback
• N.C. State football enters 2012 with great expectations
• Charles Robinson: Americans finish 2-4 in women's 100-meter hurdles
• Y! News: Thousands of fish die as Midwest streams heat up

Tags: Darvish, Erik Bedard, , , , Justin Maxwell, luck, , , the Red Sox, , ,
No Comments Share Read More

The user’s guide to two-start pitchers, Week 18

05 Aug
2012
by in General

I know what you're thinking, gamer. Was Andy Behrens shut down early? Is he already at his word count for the 2012 MLB season? As it turns out, Behrens just needs to skip a start. He's expected to get some Ryan Zimmerman cortisone over the next day or so, and no visit with Jimmy Andrews will be required. Doc Behrens will be back in the rotation shortly.

Let's get you set up with the double-dips for Week 18.

National League

Hero Sandwich
 Johnny Cueto — at MIL, at CHC
Matt Cain — at STL, vs. COL
Yovani Gallardo — vs. CIN, at HOU

Normally I wouldn't put Gallardo anywhere near these other two guys, but that "at Houston" turn shines like a neon light.

Peanut Butter and Jelly
 Wade Miley — at PIT, vs. WAS
Chris Capuano — vs. COL, at MIA
Ben Sheets — at PHI, at NYM
Jonathon Niese — vs. MIA, vs. ATL
Lance Lynn — vs. SF, at PHI
Erik Bedard — vs. ARI, vs. SD
Edwin Jackson — at HOU, at ARI

It's been a funky year for Niese in the monthly splits. His 1.89 ERA in June belied a 1.20 WHIP, but last month he had a 4.63 ERA despite a 1.00 WHIP, 22 strikeouts and just three walks. He's ranked aggressively this week because that Miami offense is simply dreadful. Also, they say any pitcher with a new nose tends to turn things on about two-thirds of the way into their first season.

Shark Sandwich
 Vance Worley — vs. ATL, vs. STL
Ross Detwiler — at HOU, at ARI
*Matt Garza — at SD, vs. CIN
Bronson Arroyo — at MIL, at CHC
Travis Wood — at SD, vs. CIN
Jeff Karstens — vs. ARI, vs. SD
Patrick Corbin — at PIT, vs. WAS

Until I actually see Garza on a mound, I'm refusing to make any hard assumptions. Derek Smalls is nodding in agreement. Karstens has an interesting case; his BB/K ratio is around 3/1 everywhere, but he's got messy ratios in seven road turns, as opposed to three superb starts at home. Maybe PNC Park turns him into a sleeper this week.

Knuckle Sandwich
 Jake Westbrook — vs. SF, at PHI
Wade LeBlanc — at NYM, vs. LAD
Jordan Lyles — vs. WAS, vs. MIL
Eric Stults — vs. CHC, at PIT
Dallas Keuchel — vs. WAS, vs. MIL
Barry Zito — at STL, vs. COL
Drew Pomeranz — at LAD, at SF

I've fallen into a couple of Zito starts on the telly lately, and it blows me away that he gets anyone out. The Cardinals have the deepest lineup in the NL, so this figures to get ugly. Pomeranz rarely goes deep in any game and his mates don't hit on the road at all, so those two tasty ballparks still don't push him into relevance.

American League

Ice Cream
 Jered Weaver — at OAK, vs. SEA
C.J. Wilson — at OAK, vs. SEA
Justin Verlander — vs. NYY, at TEX

Verlander gets two tricky assignments, but obviously you're dialing him up anywhere in weekly formats. Weaver and Wilson get a nice reprieve after last week's trip to pitcher hell (Weaver, to his credit, posted a sharp line anyway).

Frozen Yogurt
James Shields — vs. TOR, at MIN
Jarrod Parker — vs. LAA, at CHW

Parker's Circle of Trust privileges could be revoked if he continues to struggle.

Bananas Foster
 Phil Hughes — at DET, at TOR
Yu Darvish — at BOS, vs. DET
Jon Lester — vs. TEX, at CLE

Three big names, a bunch of tricky assignments. I'm glad I don't own any of these pitchers. You're on your own.

Hasty Pudding
 Zach McAllister — vs. MIN, vs. BOS
Scott Diamond — at CLE, vs. TB
Jason Vargas — at BAL, at LAA
Ivan Nova — at DET, at TOR

While Vargas isn't going to the worst hitting parks this week, we can't ignore his road ratios (4.67 ERA, 1.31 WHIP). He's still managed to win eight of his 13 suitcase starts, but I'm not chasing that fluke. I probably trust Nova more than most in a general sense, but that nine-run turn against Baltimore left a mark and he's staring at two terrible matchups here.

Mud Pie
 Zach Britton — vs. SEA, vs. KC
Chris Tillman — vs. SEA, vs. KC
Aaron Cook — vs. TEX, at CLE
Bruce Chen — at CHW, at BAL
J.A. Happ — at TB, vs. NYY
Luis Mendoza — at CHW, at BAL
Corey Kluber — vs. MIN, vs. BOS
Rick Porcello — vs. NYY, at TEX

Carlos Villanueva has been pushed back a day in the Toronto rotation (thanks to Rolling Meadows, IL for the tippage), which means we see a double-dose of Happ this week. Have fun with that, Rays and Yanks. The Porcello start in Texas has big-number potential as well.

Tags: Andy Behrens, ARI, CHC, CHW, CLE, Doc Behrens, , , road, , , Yovani Gallardo
No Comments Share Read More

Closing Time: Zack Greinke heads to Disneyland

28 Jul
2012
by in General

No matter what happens over the final four days, it's been one of the buzziest trade deadlines in several years. And on Friday night, the other cleat dropped on Zack Greinke. Brewers GM Doug Melvin kept his trade promise, shipping Greinke to Anaheim for three well-regarded Angels prospects.

It looks like a good move for Greinke on the surface, even with the AL environment coming into play. The Angels ballpark has been far more forgiving than Miller Park over the last 3.5 years, and the AL West is a reasonable division otherwise (Seattle and Oakland have unthreatening parks, while Arlington is an offensive party — more on that in a second). Throw in the supporting cast the Angels have (strong defense, excellent bullpen, superhero Mike Trout, etc.) and Greinke should be a star in his new city. Of course, you already knew that.

That said, Greinke always strikes me as a difficult commodity to understand at times. The playability of Miller Park never bothered him over the last year and change; he was 11-0 at home last year with a 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, compared to a 5-6 mark with 4.70 and 1.29 ratios on the road. This year, more of the same: 4-0 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in front of Bernie Brewer, and 5-3, 4.09 and 1.39 numbers when out of a suitcase. The full stat story is more complicated that that, obviously, but the ratio split is a befuddling one.

Greinke has also been a bit of a peripheral tease for the last three seasons. His final Kansas City ERA was 4.17, well under the 3.34 FIP and 3.60 xFIP suggested. Last year was a crazy haul for Greinke, as his 3.83 out-the-door number lagged behind the 2.98 and 2.56 estimates. This year, he's carrying a 3.44 ERA compared to a 2.51 FIP and 2.79 xFIP, despite a strong push down in his HR/FB rate and a kick forward in his ground-ball rate. The overall stat package still plays for anyone in any format, you just get the sense he could be even better.

The welcoming schedule slots nicely for Greinke. He'll make his Angels debut Sunday at home against the Rays, then he works at Chicago and Oakland. The Angels have a series in Arlington that he'll miss completely. If Greinke is going to visit the Rangers down the stretch, it won't come until the final weekend of the year. There's a good chance Greinke will also pitch in Fenway Park in August, but otherwise the remaining slate looks unthreatening.

In AL-only pools, you know what to do: fire up the FAAB machine and throw everything at this guy. This is the best single option you're likely to see. As for mixed-league owners, I think your ace might be a little better down the stretch, though you never know how variance and luck will play out over the final two months. The setup is good, the environment is good.

Greinke is a free agent after the year, of course, so this could be an expensive rental for the Halos. But I don't think they would have made this move if they didn't feel they at least had a chance of retaining Greinke. It's impossible to project all that contract stuff until we see how team and player fit for the next two months. Settle in, the AL West is going to be a blast down the stretch.

• Although Carl Crawford ripped his first homer of the year in Friday's loss at New York, it hasn't been a strong return for him. He's off to a .222/.263/.306 start (one walk, 10 strikeouts), and team trainers have told Bobby Valentine that Crawford can't play four days in a row. That's life with a Tommy John-waiting elbow, I suppose. Crawford isn't in Saturday's lineup, a logical move up against lefty CC Sabathia.

Mind you, Crawford did play six straight days when he initially came back, Valentine showing veto power over his training staff. And I still feel like you can get a decent return for Crawford's name-brand value in some leagues; he still has some apologists in a few formats. He's not welcome on any of my teams, even if I see him on the wire. The speed is nice, but he's never collected 20 homers in a year; he can't hit lefties to save his life; he rarely walks; and he's playing through an injury. The Boston undertow can only do so much for you.

The Red Sox would love to find a taker for Crawford, but that massive contract is an albatross. And a new club would have to consider Crawford's list of issues: he doesn't want to leave left field or bat in the leadoff position. What do you want for a lousy $142 million, a can-do attitude?

• Poor Brad Mills did all he could do trying to pilot his club to a victory Friday, but the Astros still wound up with their 11th straight loss. Mills used five different relievers over the last three innings — and he was spared the services of dinged-up Francisco Cordero (toe) — but the Pirates still rallied for two runs in the ninth and flipped the game. So it goes. Please excuse the appearance at Minute Maid Park, the club is remodeling for the future.

Nonetheless, you have to wonder why Wilton Lopez played such a small part in Houston's game plan Friday. Lopez entered the game in the middle of the eighth inning, allowed a double to Andrew McCutchen, then departed. Lefty reliever Wesley Wright actually worked before and after Lopez — he temporarily slotted in right field when Lopez entered. Perhaps Mills thought he was clever doing a lefty-righty sashay in the eighth inning, but then he had to watch overmatched Rhiner Cruz and make a mess of the ninth (Xavier Cedeno picked up the blown save, inheriting a based-loaded mess; it's unfair to pin this on him. He retired both men he faced.)

On one hand it was wise for the Astros to summon presumably their best reliever — Lopez — into the game against the dangerous McCutchen. That's smart managing, no matter that McCutchen stroked a hit. And given how Alex Presley and Garrett Jones struggle against lefties, I can understand wanting to have Wright work against them. Still, the Astros are left looking at a one-run loss where the game turned in the ninth inning, and at the end of it all their bullpen ace (on paper, anyway) threw just three pitches. If it were my team, I'd want Lopez used in a bigger role.

We don't have any closer definition here, that's for sure. The caveats with Cordero aren't going away, he looks done. Lopez is just a few weeks removed from a DL stint, so maybe the club wants to baby him and his elbow. Cedeno has thrown 12.1 innings in the majors, it's too early to say what he is. Lefty Fernando Abad has a pretty K/BB rate, but righties are hitting .340 against him (and he was sent to Triple-A on Saturday). Cruz has a 7.41 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over 33 appearances, which demands the question: what the heck was he doing getting a save chance in a one-run game?

Joe Sambito, are you out there? Dave Smith, can you still bring the heat? Jim Bouton, how quickly can you get warm? Even rebuilding teams like to win now and again. (That said, maybe the fans are too cool to care.)

• The minor trade news from Friday involved Marco Scutaro shipping to San Francisco for unexciting 2B prospect Charlie Culberson (basically, a salary dump). Scutaro can cover three infield positons for the Giants and he'll be needed at third base initially; Pablo Sandoval is headed for the DL. But Scutaro hasn't hit outside of Coors Field this year — he has a .793 OPS in the thin air, and a .570 OPS everywhere else.

I'd love to tell you the Rockies have a splashy new second baseman to hit the scene, but I don't see that player on the roster. Maybe Culberson will get a look, or DJ LeMahieu (.229/.275/.292 ). Eric Young Jr. hasn't played second base all year. Perhaps Chris Nelson will get a look later in the year, if he comes back healthy. Down the road this should be Josh Rutledge's position, whenever Troy Tulowitzki is ready to return.

Tags: , Carl Crawford, , , , Francisco Cordero, Greinke, , , , , xFIP,
No Comments Share Read More

Opening Time: The case for Carlos Gomez

25 Jul
2012
by in General

It's been a long time since anyone took Carlos Gomez seriously in our pretend baseball world. He's a free-swinging hacker who won't take a walk, right? His batting average stinks, right? He's not even a full-time player, right?

Alas, the game is all about the numbers and not the names, and over the past 25 days Gomez has been doing some nifty roto work. It's okay if you don't want to pick him up after I'm done with this propaganda piece. Just consider the argument first.

You can say almost anything you want with arbitrary endpoints, but that's how we'll start things off. Gomez has four homers and nine steals (on 10 attempts) in his last 18 games (12 starts). He's scored 12 runs, driven in nine. If you rank all the fantasy outfielders over that span, Gomez checks in as the No. 7 guy — and that's despite playing about 60 percent of the time. Perhaps this is a story worth chasing. I've added Go-Go on a couple of my deep-league rosters.

I can't tell you his underlying skills have improved significantly, but Gomez's walk rate and strikeout rate have improved slightly this year, and he's pushed up his isolated power by 21 points. And at least he's making more hard contact: his line-drive rate was a paltry 11.9 percent last year, but it's 17.8 percent in 2012. Take those numbers for whatever they're worth to you.

Gomez has a mere .250 average and .316 OBP during his four-week binge, so I'm not going to tell you this is a magnificent real-life player. But given the new baseline in MLB's world (scoring, power and speed are all down from last year), I'll take category juice just about anywhere I can get it. Gomez will probably get a chance to take a job and run with it, and he's free to grab in 98 percent of Yahoo! leagues. He's still just 26.

Maybe this story will fade away quickly, or maybe this is one of those out-of-nowhere finds that will spark our late-season rallies. You decide what it means to you.

• Meet the new Coco, same as the old Coco. The first Francisco Cordero save chance in Houston was a failure: three hits and three runs, two walks, one homer allowed. The ninth-inning rally sparked Mike Leake to a victory (nice stream, kid) and took a win away from Lucas Harrell. Tough times in H-Town.

The Astros have a logical reason to try Cordero in the closer's chair — if they could flip Brett Myers and Brandon Lyon, they can flip almost anyone — but I wonder if Cordero might force a quick change in the closer position, given how poorly he's thrown this year. He had a 5.77 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in Toronto and the AL batted .340 against him. He's already allowed eight homers in 36 innings this year. Why would you want this man handling any high-leverage situation?

Unheralded Houston righty Wilton Lopez is one of my favorite stash-and-hold relievers of the moment. He's posted an ERA under 3.00 in each full season, and his 2012 profile grabs your attention: 2.61 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 30 strikeouts, just five walks. Lefties hit him fairly well in 2010 and 2011, but they're slashing a mere .234/.269/.234 against Lopez this year. If and when the Cordero cord is cut, Lopez should be next in line.

• Whoever closes for the Astros the rest of the way won't have Wandy Rodriguez to set the table. The Houston lefty was dispatched to the Pirates on Tuesday, essentially a salary-relief move (the Astros did receive three unexciting prospects). It's a kick forward for Rodriguez's fantasy value, as PNC Park is a pitcher's haven (look at what it's done for A.J. Burnett) and the Bucs are no doubt a contending ballclub with a strong bullpen.

Rodriguez can now re-apply for Circle of Trust membership; I'll get back to him by the end of the week. He's carrying a 3.79 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at the moment, but I expect both of those ratios to drop over the final two months.

• What are we to make of the R.A. Dickey slump in July? He's allowed 39 hits and 21 runs (19 earned) over 26.1 innings, good for a 6.49 ERA. That .404 BABIP is crazy-unlucky, sure, but he's also allowing line drives 24 percent of the time. The K/BB ratio is in place, with 23 whiffs against just five walks. He's allowed three homers.

I know Dickey throws the knuckleballer harder than anyone else has and his first-half run was ridiculous, but I can't help but think of mad knuckler runs from the past and how they ended. Tim Wakefield had a 1.65 ERA through 17 starts in 1995, but he crashed over his final 10 appearances (5.60 ERA).

Is Dickey still a Top 20 arm to you? A Top 30 arm? What's the best pitcher you'd give up to acquire him right now? What's the weakest arm you'd accept in a trade? Let's try to get through this together. I don't have Dickey on any teams, something I've regretted most of the year. But I don't envy his owners right this second.

• The Yankees might have unceremoniously stolen Ichiro Suzuki while in Seattle, but the Emerald City doesn't have to sit through any more Alex Rodriguez at-bats this week. A-Rod took a Felix Hernandez pitch off the left hand Tuesday night, resulting in a fracture. He'll be down 6-8 weeks, and perhaps it will push New York into the trade market for a third baseman. San Diego's Chase Headley looks like an interesting possibility; he's rocking a .279/.378/.488 slash on the road this year, and that doesn't include the homer he crushed off Tim Lincecum on Wednesday afternoon.

Fantasy owners need to scout a replacement as well, so let's get some options cooking. In the shallow formats, consider Pedro Alvarez (53 percent, still love the pop), Daniel Murphy (59 percent, on fire this month), Chipper Jones (39 percent, Funston approved) and Headley. If you need to look deeper, Todd Frazier (10 percent), Jordan Pacheco (three percent) or Wilson Betemit (five percent) might be worth a click.

• I'm surprised Lorenzo Cain is only owned in 24 percent of Yahoo! pools; he's long gone in every competitive mixer I've sampled. The Rampaging Royal cranked another homer Tuesday and he also stole a base. He's hitting .321 on the year (slugging .536) and Ned Yost slots him in the middle of the lineup. Cain was a sleeper-pick staple back in March, and he's finally healthy again. What's not to like?

Tags: , , Carlos Gomez, Cordero, era, , Francisco Cordero, Gomez, , , ,
No Comments Share Read More

Late Night Fantasy Chat: 10 pm ET

22 Jul
2012
by in General

Winning the British Open is Easy. Fantasy baseball is hard.

My goal tonight is to help you secure a fictional title, the coveted computer-generated hardware. Baseball questions, I'm your huckleberry. Let's crank some homers, swipe some bags, lower that infinite WHIP. The fun and games will start at 10 pm ET.

There will be interludes of silliness, of course. We'll talk music and movies, sip from the jug. Let's have some fun. Let's share some knowledge.

See you in a little over eight hours, Internet friend.

Tags: Baseball questions, Chat, , Fantasy Baseball, hardware, Late Night Fantasy Chat, , , swipe, the British Open,
No Comments Share Read More

NBA jerseys will have sponsors soon, and we’re here to help

20 Jul
2012
by in Fantasy Basketball, General

Way back in March, BDL's Kelly Dwyer wrote a post detailing the NBA's interest in putting advertisements on their teams' jerseys. He spoke for all of us here in noting that the idea is crass and distasteful to anyone more focused on the sport of basketball itself than on the bottom lines of multinational conglomerates and their partners within the league. Sadly, jersey sponsorships are very much a step in the continued businessification of the sports world, and the time to make a meaningful stand against the movement was probably 20 years ago when every arena in the world traded its municipal name for that of a corporation. Some battles are lost well before they begin.

It is now time to get even more used to the idea of ads on jerseys, because it could be only a season or two away. At a meeting of the NBA's Board of Governors on Thursday, the owners discussed how best to implement these sponsorships. After the meeting, deputy commissioner Adam Silver gave a sense of their plans at a press conference. From Ken Berger of CBSSports.com:

NBA jerseys almost certainly will feature small sponsorship patches on the shoulder area in two years, a move that league officials estimate could generate $100 million in revenues per season. [...]

"I think it's fair to say that our teams were excited about the opportunity and think there is potentially a big opportunity in the marketplace to put a two by two patch on the shoulder of our jerseys," Silver said.

Silver later corrected himself, saying the patches would be 2.5 inches-by-2.5 inches. They would feature the names of companies -- think McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Kia, Apple -- and would put the NBA in lock step with international sports leagues whose player uniforms routinely are adorned with ads. WNBA teams already have sponsorship logos on their jerseys, but the NBA would be the first of the four major American pro sports leagues to take the plunge.

"My sense is that every team is in favor of doing this in some form," Silver said.

[Adrian Wojnarowski: Andrew Bynum could derail Dwight Howard trade]

It is no great surprise that the same group of 30 men who started the lockout last summer — during which these potential jersey profits may or may not have figured into financial discussions — would be in favor of making at least eight figures from a small patch on jerseys. Their assumption, I'm sure, is that fans will eventually get used to it, just as they got used to stadium name changes and sponsored timeout entertainment and $14 beers. This particular march of progress started long ago, and it's not going to abate unless every fan reads Marx and decides a bloody uprising is the best case scenario. (I call a spot in the vanguard!)

However, until the proles rise, we should probably at least hope for advertising that makes sense. With that in mind, I have suggested the best possible jersey sponsorship partners for each NBA franchise. Read on and witness the wonders of corporate synergy.

Boston Celtics: Geritol. I don't entirely know what Geritol is, or what it does. But I do know that only old people use it, and the Celtics are likely to appeal to the more mature set this season. What better way to reach out to older fans than to sell them something only they understand. It's like a secret club!

New York Knicks: Jaguar. A luxury item that falls apart and needs parts replaced regularly.

Philadelphia 76ers: Geno's Steaks and Pat's King of Steaks. It might seem odd to have two famous rival cheesesteak shops share space on the Sixers' uniform, but it's really not so different from putting two centers into the starting lineup. Plus, both make your body (or team) sluggish.

Toronto Raptors: Molson. It might seem unlikely for the NBA to allow beer logos on its jerseys. However, it is a little-known fact that Canadians are only allowed to drink beer and eat poutine, as decreed by their moose prime minister. Therefore, Molson was the only logical choice for this spot.

Brooklyn Nets: The New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority. There is much excitement about the Nets playing games in Brooklyn, as well as jokes about their players hobnobbing with buzzbands and dressing like designer hobos. The truth, however, is that everyone associated with the franchise will live in Manhattan and spend very little time living like a character from "Girls." They will all need unlimited-ride subway tickets, and the MTA is here to exploit that.

[Video: Derrick Rose makes first public statement since knee surgery]

Chicago Bulls: Jenga. Without Derrick Rose at full strength, the Bulls could have a hard time staying among the league's elite. In Jenga, removing just one piece can make the whole structure fall apart. Also, it is very cheap, just like Chicago's free-agent pickups this offseason.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Quicken Loans. Around the time of the housing crisis, Dan Gilbert's Quicken Loans came under fire for its predatory loaning practices. Nevertheless, Gilbert took the moral high ground during LeBron James' poorly conceived departure from Cleveland. Is there any reason he'd stop now and avoid giving one of his businesses more attention, especially with the Cavs looking much improved?

Detroit Pistons: Ford Taurus. A solid, affordable car from Detroit that neither inspires nor offends. A vessel that gets you from place to place, and little more. Who needs personality?

Milwaukee Bucks: Target crewneck undershirts. Head coach Scott Skiles is a man of simple tastes. He will not allow his team members to advertise anything that calls attention to itself.

Indiana Pacers: Miracle Whip. A few years ago, the Pacers were like mayonnaise — boring, plain, and a potential health risk. Now, they're good, and hip, and basically like Miracle Whip, which promotes itself as anything but ordinary. I've never had it, but I can only assume they lace their product with LSD.

Miami Heat: Polo Ralph Lauren. A high-class aesthetic for all. Elitist style manufactured for a class slightly below, though affordable enough to seem attainable.

Atlanta Hawks: The Nelly album "Suit/Sweat." The Hawks are trying to remake their image into that of a professional, Spurs-like organization after years of being poorly run. They want to be businessmen. Unfortunately for new GM Danny Ferry and the others who run the organization, they can't say goodbye to their partying ways just yet. They must balance their personalities, just like on this classic album by the master of American hip-hop.

Orlando Magic: Excedrin. Because this Dwight Howard headache isn't going to end anytime soon.

Washington Wizards: Pull-Ups Training Pants. The Wizards have hopes of making the playoffs this season and have constructed their roster accordingly. The problem here is that teams usually don't suddenly become postseason contenders, especially when their most important player (John Wall, in this case) is still learning how to be a top dog. Pull-Ups are a useful between-stages item and will help fans understand exactly what they are watching in DC.

Charlotte Bobcats: Bobcat Goldthwait. It might seem natural for owner Michael Jordan to use his eponymous Nike brand on his team's jerseys, but he would never align himself with such a terrible team. However, because the Bobcats are so bad, they cannot attract any companies and must settle for a funny-voiced yet interesting comedian/actor/writer/director.

Oklahoma City Thunder: "The Avengers" on Blu-Ray/DVD. Mark Ruffalo, who plays the Hulk in the Marvel blockbuster, is a big enemy of hydrofracking, an energy-company practice advocated by OKC co-owner Aubrey McClendon. In order to prevent future complaints, McClendon will allow Ruffalo to advertise his movies on Thunder uniforms.

Denver Nuggets: Skittles Riddles. The Nuggets' strength is in their depth, but that means they often don't know which player will be their best scoring option on any particular night. Skittles Riddles are just as delicious as regular Skittles, except the buyer doesn't know which flavor is which. What a delightful surprise!

Utah Jazz: The Natural Resources Defense Council. EnergySolutions, the company after which the Jazz arena is named, is the largest nuclear waste company in the country. With the NRDC on hand, the Jazz will show the world that they are not ecological terrorists, and that Enes Kanter will not randomly sprout a third arm during a February game against the Houston Rockets.

(Note: The original entry for the Jazz was a hack-ish, outdated joke about the Jazz franchise being really white. Thanks to the Jazz fans on Twitter who set me straight.)

Portland Trail Blazers: Windows 7. This operating system replaced Vista, a high-profile flop for Microsoft. Windows 7 is a marked improvement, but still not considered cool by anyone who lives in Portland. By connecting it to the beloved Blazers, Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen will increase that market share if it kills him.

[Related: Kevin Love pleased 'bad blood' is gone from T'wolves locker room]

Minnesota Timberwolves: Gillette. The shave company's new ad campaign features hip young endorsers like Andre 3000 and Gael Garcia Bernal discussing how best to sculpt their facial hair. Wolves stars Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio so far only have pretty standard beards, but their hair is still ripe for advertorial exploitation.

Los Angeles Lakers: Steve's $4,000 Sweatpants Emporium. No clothing store in Los Angeles makes as much money as Steve's, your one-stop shop for ridiculously expensive casual wear that makes you look like a schlubb in style. It's the essential element of any Angeleno's uniform.

Los Angeles Clippers: The American Civil Liberties Union. As stipulated in one of his housing discrimination settlements, owner Donald Sterling must use the ACLU logo for jersey sponsorships.

Phoenix Suns: Gucci. During lockout negotiations, owner Robert Sarver said that his wife told him to bring the mid-level exception back to her in a designer handbag. Now all Suns fans can luxuriate in the joy of owning a high-priced bag, or at least enjoy thinking about their owner's wonderful marriage every time they watch their favorite team.

Golden State Warriors: Globoozle.com. Joe Lacob comes from the world of venture capital, where even the stupidest ideas for companies earn millions of dollars in funds. Globoozle.com is the world's first website that combines social media, traveling, and home ownership so that vacationers can spend their entire trips tweeting about what it'd be like to live in that particular city based on very basic appraisals of properties in the area. Nobody in Silicon Valley knows how this service is valuable, but they're excited about it anyway.

Sacramento Kings: Taco Bell. An absolutely horrible meal that still tastes quite delicious, in its way. That makes it a perfect pairing for a bad team with DeMarcus Cousins and Thomas Robinson in the frontcourt. Plus, game times will perfectly coincide with Fourth Meal for fans watching on the East Coast.

Memphis Grizzlies: Curves. While most fitness chains try to beat their clients into shape, Curves preaches becoming comfortable with your body. As most people know, Grizz star Zach Randolph is a little pudgy. Sometimes, that extra heft helps him play his best.

[Related: Rockets GM Daryl Morey goes off on Houston reporter]

Houston Rockets: The Columbia House Music Club. As many music choices as you want, as long as you play by strict rules, with the potential to pay lots of money for very little in return. There are options, but only so many.

Dallas Mavericks: AXS TV. Mark Cuban is the founder of AXS, originally known as HDNet, the first network to air all its programs in high-definition. Despite the name change, they still show the same four concerts and reruns of "JAG" they always did. The Mavs have a new look, but chances are they're not going to do much better than they did in 2011-12. On the other hand, that one lady on "JAG" sure is pretty.

New Orleans Hornets: Tweezers. Look, I know a unibrow is distinct, but at some point a man gets too old for that look.

San Antonio Spurs: Milk. Wholesome, delicious, and good for you. What's not to like?

Elite Athlete Workouts

Other popular content on the Yahoo! network:
• Jason Cole: Mario Williams, Peyton Manning not only stars on rebound
• British Open: Anirban Lahiri makes hole-in-one
• Refugee without a country to compete under Olympic flag in London
• Y! Finance: America's weirdest restaurants

Tags: Andrew Bynum, , Derrick Rose, , Mark Ruffalo, Miracle, , Polo Ralph Lauren, Quicken, strength, ,
No Comments Share Read More

Closing Time: Jon Lester, big name gone bad

18 Jul
2012
by in General

Generally I'm a fan of the Lesters of the world. Lester Burnham, antihero. Lester Bangs, rock journalist and raconteur. Lester Schonbrun, Scrabble mensch. Lester Grimm, an interesting character in a forgotten Baumbach movie.

Jon Lester? Sorry, lefty, you're no friend of mine. It's all about the numbers, not the names.

Lester's latest mediocre start hit on Tuesday at Fenway Park, a stinker against the White Sox. Lester lasted just four innings, allowing seven hits, six runs. He's now carrying a 4.80 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, along with a crummy 5-7 record. Lester's O-Rank before the year was a lofty 60; his actual rank right now in the Yahoo! game is 766. What a mess.

Lester's a good example of how a name player in a high-profile city can often be overrated. His career ERA is 3.67 and his career WHIP is 1.30; you're never getting into the Cy Young conversation with those ratios. And heck, his best seasonal ERA is a mere 3.21, and his best seasonal WHIP is an ordinary 1.20. Those aren't trophy-worthy numbers, either.

Lester apologists can point to his strikeout numbers if they want, though the 7.58/9 clip is his lowest in four years. And while the ERA estimators do suggest some bad luck is at play with Lester (especially with a low strand rate), the alphabet soup doesn't promise a superstar ERA. The FIP calculation lands at 3.68, xFIP says 3.63, and SIERA has Lester at 3.73. Those aren't numbers that move the needle.

Pitching in Fenway Park is no picnic, of course — Lester is a 3.68/1.35 commodity at home for his career. And you don't get many easy assignments in the AL East, especially if the Yankees (fourth in runs) or Blue Jays (third) are on the docket.

So what can Lester owners do with their struggling pesudo-ace? Pursue a trade. You don't need your entire league to believe in Lester, you just need to find one person who will take the case. And in a lot of pools, that one guy does exist. (And before you get on me for hurting your cause, understand there are other fantasy analysts who still like Lester. I saw one pundit calling Lester a Top 30 arm this week. Public confidence hasn't completely crashed yet.)

Maybe you can simply ship Lester out of town for the best bat available. I saw an Anthony Rizzo-Lester deal happen this week, and a Paul Konerko-Lester swap also went down. And while the package-offer game might not work in sharp leagues (where most people realize the best player in a deal usually slants the deal), you might be able to find a depth-shattered owner who will take a chance.

Someone recently shipped Lester and Adrian Gonzalez for Clayton Kershaw, a move I'd sign off on immediately. Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury for Robinson Cano? I like selling Ellsbury with an expectant price attached. And you can play it from the depth-grab position, too. Lester for Will Middlebrooks and Tyler Clippard? A risky deal on both sides, but I'd be willing to take the kid corner and the could-be closer over the disappointing big-name ace.

I don't know your league context as well as you do. I don't know the other owners in your league. Maybe you'll have to wait until Lester actually pitches well again before you entertain trading him — often it's a timing thing for best results. But are you confident that Lester can stop the Blue Jays at Fenway this weekend, or the Yankees in The Bronx next week? I'm not.

If you're not trying to sell this overpriced big name, you're not trying. That's my story, and I'll be sticking to it.

• Maybe we're going to be an injury blog before long. Tuesday was another Red Cross day, with Ryan Braun (groin) suffering a groin injury. He's not in Wednesday's lineup, surely to the delight of the Adam Wainwright apologists (I'm raising my hand). Matt Holliday (thigh) is also sitting that one out. As for Jed Lowrie, the Astros are hoping to get him back in 4-6 weeks — but remember the team is nowhere near contention, so there's no incentive to rush him back. If you can liquidate Lowrie for anything usable now (even if it's a tiny piece), I suggest you do it.

• Carl Crawford's return has been a smash through two games: four hits, four runs, three steals, even a walk (oh, that patient man). It's been fortunate Crawford hasn't faced a lefty starter yet, though he did knock a single against a left-handed reliever. The Red Sox face three southpaws in the next three games, albeit they're non-threatening southpaws: Pedro Hernandez, Jose Quintana, Aaron Laffey. The best time to sell Crawford might be five minutes after you read this. (The Red Sox apparently agree — some crazy Crawford trade rumors are on the web today. Alas, the Red Sox have to maneuver around Crawford's albatross contract, which runs through 2017.)

• The closer is dead in Milwaukee; long live the new closer. Francisco Rodriguez was appointed the new man in Suds City before Tuesday's game, and he came through with a wobbly-but-effective conversion against the Cardinals. David Freese opened with a double and Yadier Molina singled to center, but then K-Rod locked it down: infield out, strikeout (oh, that pesky Skip Schumaker), pop out. Free fries at Arnold's.

How long this arrangement lasts (Rodriguez in, John Axford out) depends on how effective K-Rod happens to be. As discussed in the previous Closing Time, I don't have a ton of faith in either stopper. And I also expect K-Rod to be in trade talks for most of the summer (even if it's during the waiver period). Place your bets, save chasers.

Speed Round: The Dodgers appear to be one of the frontrunners, and perhaps the lead dog, in the Ryan Dempster chase. Dempster's fantasy value stays tidy in the NL, but I'd hate to see him toiling for an AL East club . . . The Phillies limited Roy Halladay to five innings (two runs) in his first start back. He threw 80 pitches at Chavez Ravine, 55 for strikes. Next up: a home turn against Milwaukee . . . A Petco Park start turned Ross Ohlendorf into a useful pitcher (6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K). Okay, the Astros played into it as well. No mixed-league juice here, but NL-only owners can certainly consider him on the weekend, at home, against Colorado . . . A trip to Oakland cured some Roy Oswalt ills (6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K). Josh Reddick spoiled the party with a solo homer in the seventh, but otherwise it was clear sailing. Oswalt can't be trusted next week, when he's at home against Boston . . . Justin Smoak is doing all he can to stave off a demotion to Triple-A: he's hit two homers and also walked twice thus far in the Kansas City series. He's also back over the Mendoza Line, currently standing at .201. Too soon to trust him in a mixer, even with 13 homers over 319 at-bats . . . Mike Trout and his merry henchmen threw a 13-spot at the Tigers. That guy is unfair . . . Hector Sanchez (knee) went on the 15-day DL, which means Mr. Brightside Eli Whiteside rejoins the club as the caddy for Buster Posey . . . The buy-low window on Cameron Maybin might be closing fast. Maybin collected three hits and a couple of RBIs in Tuesday's win. He's pushed his batting average up 19 points this month . . . No reason to hold on Trevor Bauer, obviously (3 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4 K, 2 WP). He's got tons of stuff, but still has no idea where it's going.

Tags: , , , , Lester, Lester Bangs, Lester Burnham, Lester Grimm, Lester Schonbrun, , , ,
No Comments Share Read More

Closing Time: John Axford, on the brink

17 Jul
2012
by in General

It's pretty clear to everyone that the 2012 Brewers are not going anywhere. Milwaukee sits at 42-47, seven games back in the NL Wild Card race (and behind seven clubs). Barring some sort of miracle, Bernie Brewer will be crying in his suds all winter.

With all that in mind, should the Brewers make a change with their struggling closer? What's the best objective for this organization: going all-out to win today, or trying to get set up for the future?

Brewers closer John Axford was a treat in 2010 and 2011 (70 saves in 75 chances, tidy ratios), but he's fallen on hard times this year. The Axman handed away his sixth game of the year on Monday night, pushing his ERA up to 5.35 and his WHIP to 1.57. Good lord, those are Derrick Turnbow numbers.

A couple of the St. Louis hits were of the cheap variety, but Axford also got away with two deep fly outs — and he made his own problems by walking two batters. Walking the leadoff man with a two-run lead is inexcusable. Walking Skip Schumaker at any time is inexcusable, too.

The tease of Axford is the zesty strikeout rate: he's piled up 51 punchouts in 37 innings. When he gets ahead in the count, he's still capable of getting batters to chase breaking stuff out of the zone. But a combination of too many walks (5.1/9) and a very hittable fastball (26 percent line drives, six homers allowed) have led to a bunch of messy appearances.

Time for some intel from beat reporter Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel:

After past failures by Axford, manager Ron Roenicke said he planned to stick with his embattled closer. There was no vote of faith after this one, however.

Asked if it was time to consider other options — former closer Francisco Rodriguez has been the setup man — Roenicke said, "We talk about it all the time. We talked about it just now and we will again [Tuesday]."

"I couldn't find anything — fastball, breaking ball," Axford explained. "When I finally threw a breaking ball for strikes, it was too late. When I threw one for a strike, I shouldn't have. It ended up being a base hit. I couldn't find the fastball in or out, up or down. I've been feeling good lately but today I just felt awful."

Axford was asked if he thought he'd keep the closer's job. "I'm not the manager; that's up to the manager," he said. "Am I confident that I'll be able to go out there and get the job done? Yes. Hopefully, I will get that opportunity again."

You get the feeling at this point that he won't.

To be clear, Francisco Rodriguez hasn't been lights out this year, either. He's carrying a 3.67 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, and he's allowed five homers. In a sense he's a similar pitcher to Axford; a good (not elite in this case) strikeout rate, a few too many walks, and too many balls over the fence. If you're in a saves-for-blood league, K-Rod should be owned on speculation alone — but I don't see him being good enough to magically fix this losing ballclub. (Rodriguez has also been mentioned in some trade rumors; the Brewers would love to dump his salary, and maybe some contending club would be silly enough to take on the financial burden. Looking at you, New York Mets.)

There's not much else in the bullpen. Rollie Fingers isn't walking through that door, Dan Plesac isn't walking through that door, and Mike Fetters isn't walking through that door. Kameron Lowe (4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) has a middling strikeout rate and shares the team's gopher-ball problem. Manny Parra (4.20, 1.43) always seems to have a pretty K/BB rate but we live in a world where runs allowed matter. If you want to talk yourself into Jose Veras (4.50, 1.74), be my guest.

There's a chance Axford is down to his last strike, and there's a chance Roenicke has already decided to make a change. Again, it's a little like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. This team has to take a long-term view to the second half. My gut feel is that Axford will still get the most saves in Milwaukee in the second half, even if it's just a fact-finding mission from the Brew Crew. But I don't blame fantasy owners if they're sick of this mess and want to go in a different direction.

• One of the rallying cries of Closing Time is that we're "not an injury blog," but sometimes it's impossible to avoid the sign of the red cross. Monday, alas, was one of those days.

Joey Votto was the biggest casualty. He has a torn meniscus in his left knee and needs arthroscopic surgery. He'll be down for 3-4 weeks. Votto initially tried to play through the discomfort but it was too great; now the idea is that he'll get fixed now, and be ready to rock for the final two months of the year. Todd Frazier will likely assume the first-base chores in the meantime, which also (unfortunately) forces Scott Rolen into the lineup.

The Blue Jays lost their signature bat as well, with Jose Bautista suffering a wrist injury while hitting a foul ball. Bautista doesn't have a fracture in the wrist but he was immediately put on the disabled list. It will be interesting to hear what the MRI reveals.

Highly-regarded speed merchant Anthony Gose takes Bautista's spot on the roster; Baseball America rated him the No. 39 prospect in baseball before the season. The 21-year-old outfielder posted a .292/.375/.432 line in 92 games at Triple-A Las Vegas, with 18 doubles, 10 triples and five homers. He's 29-for-39 on steals this tear, and he swiped 70 bags at Double-A New Hampshire last season (must be those Johnnycakes). You have to assume the Blue Jays wouldn't have recalled the kid unless they intend to play him, so take note if you're in the need for speed. Gose should also get a boost from the surrounding parts of the Toronto lineup; even without Bautista, this is a dangerous, prolific group.

When discussing Carlos Quentin, injury news comes with the territory. He's dealing with a sore knee and didn't play Monday. And I don't suppose Brett Gardner's setback comes as any great surprise. It's possible he might not play again in 2012. Be careful with what you assume with your injured players, amigos.

Cleaning up the big names and walking wounded, we should also mention that David Ortiz is day-to-day with an Achilles injury (MRI results are on the way), and Zack Greinke (fatigue) will skip his Wednesday turn.

• All Salvador Perez has done in his brief major-league career is hit. Through 56 games, the backstop has a superb .343/.369/.533 slash line, with eight homers. He's already whacked five round-trippers in just 62 at-bats this year. The Royals knew what they were doing when they extended the emerging star back in February, locking him into a five-year contract.

Alas, Royals manager Ned Yost is the last man to read the memo. He's batted Perez in the bottom third of the order since the catcher returned to action this summer, and Perez actually batted ninth in Monday's loss to Seattle. Does Yost know something about Jeff Francoeur and Yuniesky Betancourt that no one else does? Perez did his part in Monday's ballgame, homering and walking over four at-bats.

While there's been a sneaky depth at the catcher position this year, Perez still looks like a Top 10 backstop for the rest of the year. Sooner or later Yost has to wake up and smell the cat food. And as we discussed a week ago (here and on Twitter), I'd absolutely drop a Carlos Santana type for Perez in a non-keeper league, no questions asked. The names really don't matter. It's all about the numbers. Perez is still surprisingly available in 65 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• Clayton Richard stands at the top of the Wednesday streamer list, working at home against the suddenly-punchless Astros. The former Michigan Wolverines clipboard holder is just 24 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues. Other names to consider for a one-day rental: Francisco Liriano (whee whee whee, 47 percent) at home against Baltimore; and Justin Masterson (still just 58 percent) under the catwalk. And if you're willing to forgive Derek Holland (55 percent) for past transgressions, he goes to work at Oakland.

I'm not touching Felix Doubront (38 percent) at Fenway against the White Sox, or Jeff Samardzija (36 percent) against Miami. Doug Fister and Ricky Romero? Nowhere near the Circle of Trust.

If you're looking ahead to Thursday, perhaps you can get something out of surging Mike Leake, at home against Arizona. He's given us five excellent turns in a row, allowing two runs or less in all of them. I'll also give my support to Mark Buehrle (at Wrigley Field) and Edinson Volquez (the Petco thing against the Astros). Fenway pushes me away from Jose Quintana and Franklin Morales.

Speed Round: I've never been a big Stephen Drew fan and Ryan Roberts is just a versatile journeyman, but if the Tigers can land one of them (or both) to patch up their middle-infield mess, I'm on board. The Tigers and Diamondbacks are discussing those players, according to Jon Morosi. … A handful of clubs are kicking the tires on San Diego cornerman Chase Headley. I'd love to see what Headley could do if Petco Park were taken away from him; he's rocking a .279/.378/.497 slash on the road this year, with eight homers in 45 games. And heck, he's still just 28. … The Miami closing wheel is alive in well, with Michael Dunn converting Monday. Steve Cishek picked up the weekend handshake. Anything that keeps Heath Bell off the radar is fine with me. … It was a night of returns and reunions at Fenway Park, as Carl Crawford scored two runs (single, walk) and Kevin Youkilis collected three hits. Youkilis received a thunderous standing ovation from the Fenway crowd prior to his first at-bat, and it was an extended love-in over the balance of the night. Crawford was greeted with a polite but modest set of cheers; the crowd is clearly in prove-it-to-me mode with him. I'd be stunned if Crawford performed anywhere near a star level for the balance of 2012, considering how long his rehab took and what he's said recently about his health. If he has a strong series against the White Sox, consider a sell-high play. … The Cubs are aggressively trying to move Ryan Dempster now, with something possible by the end of the week. Dempster hasn't allowed a run over his last five turns, shaping up this way: 33 IP, 20 H, 6 BB, 21 K. For roto purposes, it would be nice to see him stick in the NL.

Tags: Axford, Bautista, , , , John Axford, , , , Ron Roenicke, ,
No Comments Share Read More
1 2 Next »

Recent Posts

  • Lillibridge goes 3-for-4, HR to top Red Sox – Brent Lillibridge | CLE
    Lillibridge goes 3-for-4, HR to top Red ...
    August 11, 2012No Comments
  • Santana hit hard, chased early in return from DL (Yahoo! Sports)
    Santana hit hard, chased early in return...
    August 11, 2012No Comments
  • Tiger Woods unravels, while Rory McIlroy remains calm and surges to top at PGA Championship (Yahoo! Sports)
    Tiger Woods unravels, while Rory McIlroy...
    August 11, 2012No Comments
  • Storm halts McIlroy’s PGA progress and Tiger’s slide (Reuters)
    Storm halts McIlroy’s PGA progress...
    August 11, 2012No Comments
  • Posey leads Giants past Rockies, 9-3 (Yahoo! Sports)
    Posey leads Giants past Rockies, 9-3 (Ya...
    August 11, 2012No Comments

Recent Comments