The first race of the Chase is over, and that means it's time for Power Rankings! But we're doing things a little differently now that we're in the postseason. It's all-Chasers, all the time. Good job, good effort for those of you that didn't make it, but we've got bigger fish to focus on. We'll be judging who's running well, considering not just finishing position but quality of run, expected potential, and general gut feelings. As always, we hate your guy and are biased against him. Now, enjoy.

1. Brad Keselowski: We kept looking to Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards as the logical rivals to Jimmie Johnson, but is it possible we were looking at the wrong teams? Keselowski has now outthought and outdriven some of the biggest names in the sport, and he's got a series-leading (tied with Hamlin) four wins. That's about as definitive a statement on his arrival as you can make. Who else is thinking he's going to be around until Homestead?

2. Jimmie Johnson: Be afraid, everyone. Be very, very afraid. Sure, the 48 lost the race, but that's only because of one key decision. Other than that, Johnson et al. ran a flawless Chicago. And there's no evidence that they'll be any weaker at any other track. The run at six is very much alive.

3. Kasey Kahne: Well hey there, Kasey! Glad you got all those early season wiggles behind you once and for all. Kahne did exactly what we expected he would in Chicago, stay close to the leaders and not do anything stupid to jeopardize his Chase hopes.

4. Tony Stewart: Yes, we all know about the Windy City Grope, but Stewart still had to drive the doggone car after that. And he did so quite well, posting a sixth-place finish. You know what that means: watch your back(side), Delana.

5. Denny Hamlin: Sure, he ran out of gas and plummeted down the standings on the final lap. But with any luck (for his sake), that boneheaded miscalculation will spur the team on to get everything exactly right from here on out. Hamlin isn't out of the Chase, not by a long shot, but he can't afford any more of those miscues.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: See, this is why Junior is going to have to find an extra gear come Chase time. He ran exactly the kind of race he has all year, finishing eighth to his average finish of 9.9, and yet he's already a third of a race behind the leaders. Not going to get it done that way, 88.

7. Clint Bowyer: Decent enough day for Bowyer; a top 10 finish is nothing to sneeze at. (Why any finish, good or bad, would make you sneeze is beyond me and probably requires a medical professional's care.) Still, like Earnhardt he'll need to run stronger to keep pace.

8. Matt Kenseth: Shock the Matty! A lost shock pretty much killed an otherwise solid day by Kenseth, who was on the way to one of his characteristic strong finishes. Remember, crews: when installing parts, check twice, screw once. Just like ... nah, I better leave that one alone.

9. Jeff Gordon: Yeah, he got an up-close introduction to the wall, but before that, he was putting together a solid afternoon. He may well have killed his Chase hopes early on for the second year in a row, but he's been in the "desperate must-win" situation before, and look how that turned out.

10. Greg Biffle: A disappointing afternoon for Biffle; he could and should have run better. Again, it's early yet, but you don't want too many finishes in the teens on your resume.

11. Martin Truex Jr.: This was exactly what Truex didn't need. With no bonus-point cushion, Truex and Harvick have to be running better than their season average, race after race.

12. Kevin Harvick: Admit it. You'd love to see what Harvick would do if Kyle Busch or Joey Logano tried the grab-trick.

Non-Chaser of the week: Kyle Busch, of course. He's only 1,200 points behind Keselowski. With a good run of races, he should make that up by 2015 or so.

Program note: If you love (or loathe) these Power Rankings, be sure to check out my new all-sports column Case of the Mondays. Just like this, but with more Tebow.

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2012 Chase Prospects: Can Kasey Kahne complete an astonishing turnaround?

15 Sep
2012

Sometimes we brush off somebody's chances at a championship too soon. Heck, people were wondering if Jimmie Johnson was in trouble after his wreck in the opening laps at Daytona. (Um...no.) But with Kasey Kahne mired in the 30s deep into the season, you could forgive everyone outside of Kahne himself wondering if Cougar Bait's first year at Hendrick Motorsports was a splashy bust.

Shame on us all, then, for selling Kasey short. He put on an exceptional run of racing, including two wins, that vaulted him from forgotten to Chase lock, and almost into the top 10. In short, he's spent the last few months looking like a legitimate championship contender, something that we can't say of many of the other drivers ahead of him in the mix.

Kahne has that combination of reliability and "win ability" (whatever you call it when he can get a win at most tracks) that you need to survive in the Chase. He starts at the back of the pack points-wise, but odds are he'll be able to make up ground in short order.

His best Chase track: Charlotte, where he's got an average finish of 12.7. That'll be useful come October, but Kahne doesn't really have an exceptional record at any one Chase track.

His worst Chase track: Hmm. He's got a 20th or worse average finish at five Chase tracks: Phoenix, Talladega, Chicago, Martinsville and Dover. That doesn't bode so well for our boy. He'll need to better his average at four of five of those, minimum, to have any short of shot.

JB's take: This could be a very good Chase indeed for Kahne. The problem is, he still has a tendency, whether mechanical or operational, to post some finishes in the 30s. One of those, you might be able to survive and run at a Cup. Two or more, it's time to start looking to 2013. Our pick? He'll be a factor, but not a major one.

Tags: bait, , Chase Prospects, hendrick motorsports, Jimmie Johnson, Kahne, , kasey kahne, , , , wreck
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Power Rankings: The Hamster Dance continues

10 Sep
2012

The race is done, and that means it's time for Power Rankings. Each week throughout the season, we'll size up who's rising and who's falling, based on current standings, behind-the-scenes changes, expected staying power, recent history and general gut feelings. It is not scientific, nor is it meant to be. And remember, whoever your favorite driver is, we're biased against him and like someone else better. We continue with a guy who's on a roll leading into the Chase:

1.  Denny Hamlin: Is Denny the championship favorite heading into the Chase? Nope, but then, anybody who says they can pick the champion at this point, especially after last year, is either lying or they're in on the fabled NASCAR conspiracy. (Speaking of which: go to Vegas and throw a few bucks on Truex. Trust me.) Last week: 1.

2. Jeff Gordon: Problem with being a critic in NASCAR is that there comes a time when you'll have to eat your words. All season long, people have been dogging Gordon's chances, and here he is finishing the regular season 3-2-2. Crow is delicious with a few drops of Tabasco sauce. Last week: 3.

3. Jimmie Johnson: As journalists, or whatever passes for one, we're expected to root for the story, not the individual. And of the 12 drivers racing in the Chase, about 11 of them would be a better story than Jimmie Johnson winning. That said, we're also expected not to be complete idiots. (Granted, we often fall short.) And for that reason, it's tough to pick against the 48. Sorry. Last week: 4.

4. Brad Keselowski: Where do you see Keselowski falling in this year's Chase? He's the kind of guy who could throw together a couple wins and really scare some people. Plus, I really want to see him trash-talking during those infamous Homestead joint press conferences. Last week: 2.

5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: It never fails to buoy my spirit when Dale Earnhardt Jr. takes the lead and his fans go absolutely batcrap insane in the stands. I mean, these people love Dale Junior more than you love anything in your life. It's nice to see people happy. If he does win the championship, however, I'm sure I'll regret saying all this.  Last week: 7.

6. Greg Biffle: Has there ever been a regular-season leader so overlooked in the playoffs? I am hereby starting a campaign for the next 10 weeks of the Chase: WHY NOT BIFFLE? Let's see if we can use a little social media joy to get him to respond. Post it on Facebook, use #whynotbiffle on Twitter. Time to mobilize, Biffle Nation! Last week: 6.

7. Clint Bowyer: Ol' Rawhide had that nine-spot locked down in these rankings for so long we started mistaking him for Marcos Ambrose! Ha ha! Anyway, you've got to love Bowyer making such a turnaround (literally) at Richmond, and the fact that Juan Pablo Montoya knocked him out of the Chase last year has to make this even sweeter. Last week: 9.

8. Martin Truex Jr.: Truex isn't quite in the happy-to-be-here class, but I would be a lot higher on him if he'd won a race along the way. Something about the Chase clocks the top guys into a higher gear. You don't want them to get too far ahead of you, or your Chase will be over before you leave Chicago. Last week: 5.

9. Tony Stewart: I really would love to accompany Tony Stewart to someplace out of his comfort zone, like a kid's birthday party. He'd either charm the heck out of everyone there, or he'd be throwing cake and inspiring the kids to riot within minutes. Probably both. Point being ... ? Oh, right. You never know quite what you're getting with Stewart, so it's best to just hope he doesn't destroy everything around you as he rolls through your life.  Last week: 11.

10. Matt Kenseth: I don't have much to write about Matt Kenseth this week. I really don't. I wish I did, but he wasn't particularly outstanding at any facet of the NASCAR game this week. That's OK, it happens. We all have weeks where we just sort of let it roll and don't really make much of an impact ... oh, hey, we've got enough here. Last week: 10.

11. Kasey Kahne: Whatcha thinking about Kasey's chances? He's one of the few guys I think could sneak up on the field, running well and then winning a key race or two to stay in the conversation through into November. He'd be fun to see as a champion, if only because watching crazy cougars chase him is more fun than watching JK Simmons in those Farmers ads.  Last week: 8.

12. Kevin Harvick: All right, FINE, I guess we have to put Harvick in here because he made the Chase. We don't really use Nationwide races in our factoring here (or maybe we do; rules tend to change when we feel like it). But Harvick has been a Nationwide beast of late. Plus, he said that fatherhood hadn't softened him; he still wants to punch Kyle Busch in the face. Good quote, that. Last week: NR.

Dropping out of the rankings: Kyle Busch, of course. 

The Mark Martin Lucky Dog: We were going to give this to Mark Martin yet again, but he's run well enough to earn its entire title. So we give it to Jeff Burton, who deserves it for his strong Richmond performance. Don't go measuring yourself for the 31 just yet, Austin Dillon.

The Carl Edwards DNF: Kyle Busch. Seriously, this had to be one of the most disappointing races of his life. The wild card, and an entry into the Chase, was there for the taking and things fell apart.

All right, your turn. Fire away, friends.

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What do Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon have to do? Here’s the Wild Card math

05 Sep
2012

We know that two of NASCAR's biggest names won't be part of the 12 man Chase for the Sprint Cup Series field, and we'll find out which two Saturday night at Richmond.

Eight drivers are mathematically alive for the two Wild Card spots, but the most realistic opportunities belong to Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne. How realistic? Well, here are the clinching scenarios for each driver. (Note: Tony Stewart in 10th is guaranteed a place in the Chase, either via the top 10 or a Wild Card berth. His performance on Saturday could impact the Wild Card race significantly.

Kasey Kahne (11th, -18 points behind 10th, 2 wins): As the only driver outside the top 10 with two wins, Kahne's got the easiest path to the Chase. No matter what, if another of the seven drivers eligible for the Wild Card doesn't win, he's in the Chase. If he gains 19 points on Stewart, he's in the top 10 and in the Chase. If Busch gets into the top 10 (knocking Stewart into a Wild Card spot) and Gordon wins -- the ultimate worst case scenario for Kahne -- he needs to finish 13th with no laps led to stay ahead of Gordon.

Kyle Busch (12th, -23 points, 1 win): Win and Busch is in. If he doesn't, he's got a 12 point cushion on Gordon and a 40 point cushion on Ambrose. If neither of those two (and the other five drivers) win and Busch maintains those leads, he's in. And he's also in if he gets past both Kahne and Stewart into the top 10. As Jay pointed out on Sunday night, Busch's Richmond stats are damn good.

Jeff Gordon (13th, -35 points, 1 win): Win and Gordon is in. But here's where things start to get tricky if none of the one-win drivers win.. Assuming Busch doesn't get in the top 10, Gordon needs to make up those 12 points on Busch while keeping his 28 point margin on Ambrose and his 37 point lead on Newman. If Busch does get into the top 10, part of that worst case scenario for Kahne above, Gordon has to win and overcome his 17 point deficit to Kahne.

Carl Edwards (14th, -49 points, o wins): Carl's chances of sneaking into the top 10 went up in smoke with his engine on Sunday night, and it's a dastardly situation for Edwards. If he wins, Busch can finish no better than 24th with no laps led while Gordon finishes no better than 12th with no laps led. Yikes.

Paul Menard (15th, -59 points, 0 wins): This may sting for all the Menard-dogs out there, but the only reason he's in this column is because he's technically still mathematically alive for a Chase spot. And while we can never say never, that math is kind of like Calculus II. If Menard wins, Busch has to finish 34th or worse with no laps led while Gordon finishes 22nd or worse with no laps led. If Menard pulls this off, it'll replace the Channel 2 incident as his most memorable Richmond moment.

Marcos Ambrose (16th, -63 points, 1 win): If Ambrose doesn't win and automatically clinch, the probabilities aren't in his favor, as he's got to beat Busch by 41 points and 29 ahead of Gordon. So that's a second place finish for Ambrose, a last place finish for Busch and a 31st place finish for Gordon. If Menard's was Calc II, this is Quantum Physics.

Ryan Newman (17th, -72 points, 1 win) and Joey Logano (18th, -105 points, 1 win): This math is simple; Newman and Logano are in with a win. Otherwise, they're out.

So, who you got? Will we see a scenario like Jeremy Mayfield in 2004? Or will the standings look like they do right now?

Tags: Busch, finish, Jeff Gordon, , kasey kahne, , Marcos Ambrose, math, , spot, Tony Stewart,
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The Wild Card race: An unexpected driver could take a spot

25 Aug
2012

With two races to go before the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins, the most important figure in the fight for the Chase's two Wild Card spots could be Tony Stewart, the defending series champion. Yes, that's the same Tony Stewart who has been a virtual lock for the Chase since he left Daytona with his third win of the season and in sixth place in the points standings.

While Stewart is still in the top 10, he's 10th, 16 points ahead of Kasey Kahne in 11th thanks to finishes of 18th, 32nd and 27th over his last three races. Late in the running of Saturday night's race at Bristol — after Stewart had been taken out of contention thanks to his run-in with Matt Kenseth — the driver that stood the most to gain was winless Carl Edwards, who could have closed to within 15 points of Stewart for the final automatic Chase berth.

However, Edwards, who was trying to stretch his fuel to the end, ran out of gas with five laps to go and finished 22nd.

10. Tony Stewart, +16 from 11th (3 wins): Stewart is still in the Chase, either via the top 10 or thanks to those three wins even if he hasn't officially clinched yet. However, if Stewart gets in via the Wild Card, he starts the Chase tied for last without the virtue of his bonus points for those three wins. If he stays in the top 10, he could start first.

[Related: Tony Stewart flings helmet at Matt Kenseth]

11. Kasey Kahne, -16 from 10th (2 wins): All Kahne has to do right now is hold serve. If he can get around Stewart and into the top 10, he could start the Chase three points off the lead. The disastrous scenario for him is if Edwards sneaks into the top 10 while Stewart falls out and a driver with one win wins the next two races. Not likely.

12. Carl Edwards, -34 (0 wins): You have to admire the gumption of Edwards in going for the win while trying to stretch it on fuel mileage as it looked like Edwards' best shot to get into Chase contention. His bed already made, pitting from the race lead with less than 60 laps to go to ensure that the car would make it to the end wasn't the right move at the time, but it may have saved 10 points — hindsight being 20/20 and all that. Wins at Atlanta and Richmond likely get Edwards in. Can he do it?

13. Kyle Busch, -39 (1 win): Busch is still in the Chase right now, but he's living on a dangerous edge. Simply outpointing Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Marcos Ambrose and Joey Logano seems simple enough, but if one of those four drivers wins and Busch doesn't, he's toast. Busch's stats at Richmond are insane, however. In 15 career races he's got four wins and 12 top fives. He still may be the best bet of the one win drivers to make it in.

14. Jeff Gordon, -55 (1 win): Gordon's third place finish Saturday night pushed him ahead of Ryan Newman and within striking distance of Busch. Plus, Gordon won last year's race at Atlanta. Repeating Sunday night puts the pressure squarely on Busch at Richmond.

15. Ryan Newman, -58 (1 win): Newman's chances took a huge hit when he made contact with nemesis Juan Pablo Montoya and slammed into the inside wall. His record at Atlanta and and Richmond is lesser than that of Busch and Gordon, and instead of being ahead of both of them with two races to go, he's now behind them.

[Related: Denny Hamlin wins at Bristol, his third victory this season]

16. Marcos Ambrose, -67 (1 win): If there were a few more races before the Chase, Ambrose could surpass all three of the one-win drivers ahead of him as he's recorded back-to-back fifth place finishes since winning at Watkins Glen. He showed some speed earlier in the season at Texas, the most similar track to Atlanta. If you believe in momentum, Ambrose is your guy. But it may be too little, too late.

18. Joey Logano, -108 (1 win): It's strictly win or go home time for Logano who bounced back with an eighth-place finish at Bristol after three finishes outside the top 30 in the past four races. In 12 combined Richmond and Atlanta starts, he's got just one top 10. But hey, his only top 10 at Pocono was his win there earlier this season. Never say never, but Logano's on a one-way street right now.

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Tags: carl edwards, , helmet, Jeff Gordon, , kasey kahne, , , Related, the Chase, Tony Stewart,
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Mark Martin’s crash was bad, but could have been so much worse

19 Aug
2012

These are the kinds of wrecks that make you gasp at what could have happened, because you don't have time to gasp when it's happening.

Mark Martin was dominant early in the Pure Michigan 400, leading virtually every lap until his speed got him into trouble. Bobby Labonte and Juan Pablo Montoya tangled, slowing up and forcing Martin into a spin straight down pit road.

Martin hit hard on the inside of the garage-entry wall, but fortunately for everyone involved, his car stuck there as if impaled. Had he hit just a few feet more forward, his car could have slewed straight into Kasey Kahne's pit box, or could have injured Martin himself. (Martin was treated and released from the infield care center, tough as shoe leather. As always.)

Greg Biffle would go on to win the race in an interesting but overall unremarkable race day. Fortunately.

Tags: Bobby Labonte, , juan pablo montoya, , kasey kahne, Labonte, Mark Martin, , Pure Michigan 400, , road, , wrecks
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Power Rankings: We’re getting set in our ways here

06 Aug
2012

The race is done, and that means it's time for Power Rankings. Each week throughout the season, we'll size up who's rising and who's falling, based on current standings, behind-the-scenes changes, expected staying power, recent history and general gut feelings. It is not scientific, nor is it meant to be. And remember, whoever your favorite driver is, we're biased against him and like someone else better. We continue with ... well, you know who:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Yeah, Vader is running better than anyone right now, and you and I both know that if he hadn't gotten loose at the last second, he'd have been halfway to Watkins Glen before the rest of the field crossed the finish line. But hey, that's why they play the games ... or run the races, right? Last week: 1.

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Joonyer's streak of 21 straight lead-lap finishes came to an end in Pocono, but no harm done; thanks to the late-race wreck, Earnhardt held onto the points lead another week. And, for the record, I hope I'm never too old to laugh at sentences like "Junior is having problems with his tranny." Last week: 2.

3. Jeff Gordon: Hey, remember when we all said Gordon was totally washed up and he should retire? Remember when we laughed that he was coming in behind the shuttle bus at Daytona? Remember when we said the only way he was going to get a wild card is if he sent all the other cars to the wrong track, and even then his car would probably finish one lap down? Yeah, uh ... please don't remember any of that. Last week: 8.

4. Denny Hamlin: So Denny's gonna be a daddy, huh? Good for him. Looks like Denny Time has come to an end. But sweet heaven, it's going to start looking like a kindergarten playground there among the drivers' haulers. Shoot, I miss the days when drivers would finish a race, get out of their cars and bum cigarettes off their third-grade kids. Last week: 4.

5. Matt Kenseth: Whatcha think of Kenseth? He's hit that midseason swoon, the time when his early-season dominance is a memory and he's getting ready for the Chase. You think he can make a run at the Cup? I do. And yes, all this blather is just dodging the fact that WHO ARE YOU DRIVING FOR NEXT YEAR, MATT?  Last week: 3.

6. Brad Keselowski: You know what's creepy about Keselowski? The way he's always...right...there at the end of every race now. It's strange. Like, you half expect to see the Blue Deuce running behind JFK's motorcade or parked in a back alley of Westeros. Keselowski is everywhere, man. Last week: 5.

7. Kasey Kahne: 'Sup, Kasey. This is a testament to how stacked and similar the talent is across the top of NASCAR right now; Kahne pulls off a second-place finish and doesn't even move in the rankings. Of course, these are highly scientific, but the cardboard-addled gerbil who makes these rankings told me it was strange. Last week: 7.

8. Greg Biffle: You been watching the Olympics? I've been covering the women's gymnastics (don't judge!) the last few days, and sweet heaven, it's insane the tiny margin for error there. I mean, I'm watching this little girl do an astonishing flip-and-twirl on uneven bars, the kind of thing that would snap me in half, and the judges are tut-tutting like she just ran over a family of ducklings. But you know what's a great score in gymnastics? 16, which just happens to be the number of Mr. Biffle. Boom. (And that's what the gym types would call a stuck landing.) Last week: 6.

9. Tony Stewart: I'm not alone in wanting a Tony Stewart reality show, am I? Seriously, that would be the greatest show ever. Shoot, his in-car audio is enough to keep us all laughing for a week. And there could be a weekly "who's got Tony pissed?" segment ... you know what? That should be the name of the show right there. Last week: 9.

10. Martin Truex Jr.: Truex doesn't get any respect from the media! Come on, dude's in fifth place! Sure, he hasn't won, and he's not quite as well-known as that other Junior, but around here, we've ... we've what? We didn't rank him the last few weeks? Not at all? Oh. Whoops. Last week: NR.

11. Ryan Newman: You think Newman's going to be back at Stewart-Haas next year? I sure hope he gets some sponsorship lined up, for his sake. He ought to be going door-to-door if he has to. How long would it take to line up sponsorship for a full season at a dollar a house? Only, like, 40 years, right? Last week: 11.

12. Clint Bowyer: Look, I'm not going to lie to you. I'm fried. I've got nothing witty to say about Clint Bowyer this week. I've run through my Five-Hour Energy jokes, my Rawhide jokes, my Waltrip jokes. I got nothing. Sorry, Clint. But I vamped long enough that we got through this entry. Last week: 12.

Dropping out of the rankings: Kyle Busch.

Lucky Dog: Regan Smith, who brought home his first top 10, and not coincidentally, his best finish of the season at Pocono.

The Carl Edwards DNF: Kyle Busch, who went from Chase certainty to wild card write-in to "wow, he could really miss this thing."

All right, your turn. Fire away, friends.

Tags: , clint bowyer, , , , heaven, , kasey kahne, , , , Tony Stewart,
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Mini-racing: Get the entire Loudon I experience in ten minutes

16 Jul
2012

You know, it really does seem like NASCAR fans aren't happy unless they're griping about something. And unfortunately for NASCAR, Sunday's Lenox Industrial Tools 301 gave us plenty to gripe about, from spread-out flat-track racing to endless commercial breaks. Still, Kasey Kahne is very happy with how everything worked out, and Denny Hamlin won't ever be unclear on the radio ever again. Enjoy this quick recap as we head into the off week.

Tags: , Enjoy, , , kasey kahne, Lenox Industrial Tools 301, Loudon, Mini-racing, ,
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Kasey Kahne completes major turnaround with win at Loudon

15 Jul
2012

Six races into the 2012 season, Kasey Kahne was ranked 31st in the Sprint Cup standings, and his much-anticipated Hendrick Motorsports debut appeared to be on the verge of a Year One bust.

Funny what two wins and a bit of talent will do for a guy.

Three months after that Martinsville race that left Kahne's 2012 chances almost for dead, he's now in 12th place, holding the first wild card and an extremely good chance to make the Chase.

Sunday afternoon at Loudon in the Lenox Industrial Tools 301, Kahne won a largely uneventful race to cement his status as one of NASCAR's elite drivers, even if his early-season stats didn't show that.

Now, it must be noted that Kahne's victory was, at least in part, due to a pit road miscommunication between Denny Hamlin and his crew chief. Hamlin's car dominated the day, but a late call to take four tires when everyone else took two buried him deep in the field.

[Video: Kyle Busch suffers double whammy on pit road]

"We sure had some [races] we had stolen from us, so it feels good to steal one from somebody else," laughed Kenny Francis, Kahne's crew chief. "Hopefully in the end it evens out."

Still, take nothing away from Kahne, who was able to hold off Clint Bowyer, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and a charging Hamlin in the race's closing laps. Could Kahne have won a late restart against Hamlin? Doubtful, but since no caution flew, it's a moot point.

"When we got two tires there at the end, put us first, I was feeling really good about where we were at," Kahne said. "I slid around for the first 10 laps, then I knew I needed to get as big of a lead as I could because I knew Denny would be coming at some point.  I tried to get away.  We ended up winning. It was great. I was really happy.  This is a tough track." (Kahne's press conferences tend to read like Hemingway novels.)

There's much yet to play out, of course; if Kahne falters in any of these last seven races and one of the one-win drivers behind him catches fire, this could all be a pleasant memory come Chase time. But Kahne has put himself in position to challenge for the Cup, and that's a place almost no one believed he'd be earlier this year.

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Tags: , , , Hendrick, hendrick motorsports, , kasey kahne, major turnaround, , , road, ,
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Assessing drivers’ wild card chances with seven races before the Chase

15 Jul
2012

If you thought the wild card field was muddled with four drivers between 11th and 20th sitting on a win apiece, what do you think about it now?

With seven races to go before the Chase field is set, Kasey Kahne now has two wins. That leaves Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman and Joey Logano (for now) in line for the final wild card spot, just 12 points apart.

Because of the gap between 10th place Brad Keselowski and 11th place Carl Edwards (46 points), the wild-card drivers are likely to come from the drivers currently 11th-20th in the points standings. (In other words, it's unlikely anyone currently inside the top 10 will fall out.) Will it be two of the four drivers with at least a win? Or will it include someone else like Edwards or Jeff Gordon?

Kasey Kahne (2 wins, 12th place, -66 points from 10th): If you take away Kahne's crashes at Michigan and Pocono, his lowest finish since blowing an engine at Martinsville 13 races ago is 14th. And that 14th-place finish is his only finish outside the top 10 during that span when he's been running at the end. Kahne's only real weakness on the tracks remaining before the Chase begins is at Watkins Glen, where he doesn't have any top 10s. However, with the way he's rolling, another win or two isn't farfetched. Chase chances: 75%

[Related: Kasey Kahne completes remarkable turnaround in win at Loudon]

Kyle Busch (1 win, 13th place, -68): We all know he's capable of reeling off consecutive victories at any track over the next seven races. But here's the thing: With the way that his season's gone, he's also proved that it's prone to have engine failure in three consecutive races. Pit-road troubles befell Busch at Loudon when a bad pit stop coupled with a speeding penalty on the first round of pit stops ruined his day. But he started on the pole and had one of the fastest cars on the track. Based on his record at Bristol (5 wins) and Richmond (4 wins), he's still strongly in the mix. But over the last seven races, he hasn't finished higher than 10th. Chase chances: 40%

Ryan Newman (1 win, 14th place, -77): Does anyone really know what to make of Newman? He's stayed around the top 10 by consistently finishing in the top half of the field, but hasn't really challenged for a win. And let's be honest, his win at Martinsville was just a tad fluky. Without it, Newman is likely an afterthought in the Chase discussion. He does have wins at Michigan and Richmond, but they were in 2004 and 2003. His best bet may be to outpoint Busch and hope he doesn't win again. Chase chances: 20%

Joey Logano (1 win, 16th place, -80): Newman's arch-enemy is legitimately in the Chase discussion for the first time in his career. But like Newman, where would you say that Logano has a very good chance of winning before the Chase? He's led 51 laps all year: 2 in the Daytona 500 and 49 in his win at Pocono. But there is still a race remaining at Pocono. If he doesn't repeat there, he's probably going to have to go on the Newman plan. Hope they'll be OK with each other on the same strategy. Chase chances: 20%

Carl Edwards (0 wins, 11th place, -46): If it hasn't been said enough, we'll say it one more time: The time is now for Carl Edwards. He's been on the precipice of being able to sneak into the top 10 without the virtue of a win, but with the way he's been running and the gap between he and Keselowski, his Chase chances rest on his ability to get to victory lane. Given his domination until a restart penalty at Richmond earlier in the year, Edwards going for a win and a Chase berth with a great car could give us some high drama there in September. Chase chances: 10%

[Related: Tire snafu dooms Denny Hamlin at the Lenox Industrial Tools 301]

Jeff Gordon (0 wins, 17th place, -89): Much like Edwards, the time has been now for Gordon for a while now. Is he capable of two wins in seven races? Yes. Will it happen? Probably not. But we've seen what Kahne's done shaking off the bad luck bug and Gordon's due for some good karma. That, coupled with fast race cars? Well, his chances aren't dead... yet. Chase chances: 10%

Paul Menard (0 wins, 15th place, -79): Menard is the highest ranking driver outside the top 10 without a top five. That speaks to his ability to avoid devastating finishes but not to his ability to win a race or two to get a wild-card berth. But hey, we're heading to Indy, where he won last year on fuel mileage. Never say never, but we're not optimistic. Chase chances: 4%

Marcos Ambrose, Jeff Burton, Jamie McMurray, Juan Pablo Montoya and Aric Almirola (0 wins, 18th-22nd): If all the drivers ahead were sitting on one win, Watkins Glen could play a pivotal role for Ambrose and Montoya. However, given their points position, a win doesn't do them much good. Burton's two top fives have come at restrictor plate tracks. McMurray and Almirola don't have any top fives. Collective Chase chances: 1%

Who you got? Let us know below.

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