Closing Time: John Axford gets another chance

22 Aug
2012
by in General

We've wasted a lot of ink, blood and bandwidth on the Milwaukee bullpen this year, and the ending isn't anywhere in sight.

Meet the new Brewers closer, same as the old Brewers closer. John Axford apparently has his job back, endorsed by skipper Ron Roenicke.

Axford hasn't been anything special since he lost full control of the gig: in his last 15 appearances, he's posted a 4.73 ERA. But it's not like the other relievers in-house have been running away from him. The club accepts that Axford back in the big chair is the ideal resolution, should he be capable of settling back into the job.

Everything flowed Axford's way in Tuesday's 5-2 victory over the Cubs. The Brewers had a five-run lead entering the ninth, but Manny Parra created a mess (two hits, one walk) and Jim Henderson only retired one of the two men he faced. Enter Axman for the cheesy one-out handshake: Welington Castillo's ground out ended the game.

After the game, Roenicke tweaked the closing grid yet again.

"This is a guy we would obviously like to be in that closer role," Roenicke said of Axford. "And the reason we took him out of it is to try and do what's best for him to get back into that role. I think when he was out of it, I think he pitched well enough to allow us the confidence that we think we can put him back in there now.

"I'm not saying I'm going to [use Axford] every time," Roenicke continued. "But I think when everything matches up well, I think he'll be in there. I'm sure Henderson will have his chances, and hopefully we have a lot of chances here as the season goes on."

So there you go. The Axman's hair hasn't grown back yet, but he's returned to familiar ground. I'm hoping he takes this opportunity and runs with it, if only so we can stop chasing our tail with this story. Enough is enough. Fall River scribes didn't write this much about Lizzie Borden.

Discuss your Milwaukee closing vibes in the comments. I'll be back shortly with more notes; after working on hockey projections all night, I feel like I went 15 rounds with Dave Schultz.

• San Francisco specialist Javier Lopez has showcased a handy skill over the last 48 hours: he's pretty good at retiring Dodger lefty Andre Ethier. Lopez recorded a one-out save Monday and a two-out save Tuesday, both times rooted through Ethier (ground out; GIDP). He's up to three saves on the year.

The committee approach appears alive and well in the Bullpen of Bochy. Santiago Casilla has thrown the ball better in August, though it's all batted-ball fortune (no strikeouts). Sergio Romo preceded Lopez in each of the last two wins, but he wasn't able to slam the door (or perhaps he wasn't going to be allowed that privilege). Jeremy Affeldt has fallen into obscurity, pitching just twice over the last 14 days. He allowed two runs in a brief stint at San Diego on Saturday.

See any lead that makes sense here? I don't. Lopez is a one-trick pony all the way: lefties hit .191 against him, righties smack .436 against him. Check, please. Romo is dominant against righties and good against lefties, but durability is a constant concern there. Affeldt has a solid set of credentials but he can't top Lopez for lefties or Romo for righties, so it can be tricky to slot him into the ninth sometimes. And then there's his recent disappearing act, which is puzzling. Several dominoes would have to fall before Casilla shifted back into the ninth; at least, that's my gut feeling. Bruce Bochy isn't telling me any military secrets.

• I've always had a soft spot in my heart for San Diego's Will Venable. Maybe it's the fact that he went to Princeton, or maybe it's the category juice (eight homers, 18 steals in 24 attempts). He's on a nifty 9-for-13 run the last three days, along with two doubles, a homer and a steal.

Venable isn't much against lefties, but a .264/.332/.447 slash against righties is playable, especially with the power and speed mixed in. He's also posting an .836 OPS on the road; these Padres love to let their hair down when they're away from Petco Park. If you're in a deeper league and need an outfield option, Venable is good to go in 97 percent of Yahoo! leagues. San Diego is at Arizona on the weekend, though unfortunately they face a couple of southpaws (Corbin, Saunders).

• Thanks for the memories, Bartolo Colon. The veteran righty was slapped with a 50-game suspension on Wednesday, the result of a failed PED test. Colon apparently tested positive for synthetic testosterone. He was surprisingly useful this year, collecting 10 wins along with a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.

The Colon news pushes Daniel Straily back into our fantasy lives, but it won't happen immediately. Straily has to spend 10 days in the minors before the A's can recall him; he could come back sooner in an injury-replacement situation, but the Colon news doesn't qualify.

Oakland has another intriguing fantasy option on the scene, lefty Brett Anderson. His return to the majors Tuesday was a smash, seven dominant innings against the Twins (4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K). Remember all the sonnets we sang about his potential two years ago? Anderson is worth looking into next week at Cleveland; after that, he's in line for a home start against Boston. Strikeout potential and a big park, that works for me.

Tags: Axford, Axman, Bartolo Colon, , , , ground, Javier Lopez, , John Axford, , Ron Roenicke,
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First Down: MJD open to trade, Jennings commands attention

21 Aug
2012
by in General

Over the past several weeks the fantasy community has waited on pins and needles for the return of its rush king.

Sadly, it doesn't appear he will emerge from his self-imposed exile anytime soon.

In a stunning turn of events, Maurice Jones-Drew, who's prolonged holdout was thought to be ending soon, openly expressed his displeasure regarding comments Shad Kahn made recently about his All-Pro's monetary demands. In a bold move, plucked from the pages of the Prima Dona Handbook, the rusher voiced his desire to get out of Jacksonville...immediately. From the AP:

Jones-Drew's agent, Adisa Bakari, told The Associated Press on Tuesday that the Jacksonville Jaguars running back is upset with owner Shad Khan's recent public comments about his client's 27-day holdout.

''Maurice wants to play for an organization that wants him and for an owner who respects him and values what he brings to a team - on the field, in the locker room and in the community,'' Bakari said.

[…]

''Train's leaving the station. Run, get on it,'' Khan said.

Bakari made it clear that those statements don't sit well with Jacksonville's biggest star.

''Obviously, he's not happy that what started as a very cordial and private conversation is now public and contentious,'' Bakari said.

In Fantasyland, the ripple effects of his comments are far-reaching.

[Related: Jaguars, agent trade barbs in Maurice Jones-Drew holdout]

Over the next two weeks, the heart of the draft season, owners will be faced with several excruciating decisions. Running back, a position muddied by uneven rehabs, knee procedures and an untimely broken clavicle, is a quagmire of question marks. Because there is no guarantee Kahn will find a trade suitor in short order or submit Jones-Drew's original request, the RB's value is in limbo, a state that will surely drive his price down. Even if he slips into Round 3 of 12-team draft he remains an enhanced risk. Outside of the holdout, his high odometer reading and presumed reduced role in an offense that desperately wants jump-start Blaine Gabbert are equally detrimental.

So is Rashad Jennings.

The third-year rusher, fawned over by yours truly since he was stolen in Round 7 of the 2009 draft, possesses star qualities. Standing at 6-foot-1, 228-pounds, he's the antithesis of MJD in size-terms. However, his powerful interior running style, plus burst and versatility are reminiscent of his pint-sized teammate. Over 123 career attempts he's averaged a stout 5.4 yards per carry. And back in 2010 — he missed the entire 2011 season with a nonsurgical knee injury — he was the third-best RB in yards after contact per attempt. In brief, he's a break-tackle machine, a human version of Christian Okoye from Tecmo Super Bowl.

If pressed into a featured role, Jennings has strong odds of finishing inside the RB top-15. Roughly 1,300 total yards and 8-10 touchdowns are most certainly attainable. Expect his 101.2 ADP (RB42) to rise sharply over the coming days, possibly into Round 4 or 5 of 12-team drafts if MJD's wish is granted, a deserving spot.

As for MoJo, given the rash of backfield uncertainties throughout the league, he would surely draw plenty of interest on the open market. Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Arizona, New York (Jets), Detroit and, most intriguingly, New England, could make a play. But keep in mind it's entirely possible he'll do his best Emmitt Smith impersonation by continuing to hold out, jeopardizing his availability for regular season games.

Until the Jag emerges from his cave, don't throw him a steak.

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

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Tags: Bakari, , holdout, , , , MJD, , rusher, ,
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All-Avoid Team 2012: Don’t overpay for Peyton

21 Aug
2012
by in General

The plague, lima beans, law enforcement, dustups with Chuck Norris … everyday we all purposely try to dodge the perils of life.

Fantasyland's good citizens are no different.

In a violent sport where injury and ineptitude lurk around every corner, gamers constantly strive to reduce risk in the hope it will propel them to the winner's circle.

Entrust Peyton Manning as your QB1, and your odds of racing past a checkered flag could be minimized.

Once the king of consistency, Manning, for the first time ever in his Hall of Fame career, is smothered in doubt. Multiple neck surgeries, unfamiliar surroundings, throwing limitations and a different system have many people, including the Noise, second guessing whether or not No. 18 can regain his pre-injury form.

To be fair, preseason reviews on elder Manning have been largely positive. In the short-field, he's delivered passes with vintage crispness and precision. Outside three interceptions, the four-time MVP has shown glimpses of his old self. Through two games, he's 20-for-30 for 221 yards averaging a solid 7.4 yards per attempt.


However, his deep touch remains suspect. Earlier this month, observers noted his throws beyond 20 yards floated and fluttered, often wildly missing intended targets. His shortcomings weren't on display versus Chicago in Denver's first preseason game. Peyton played it close to the vest, working the field within a 10-15 yard box. But in his latest exhibition effort, Saturday against Seattle, he was a bit more liberal, taking shots downfield for the first time in game action.

The results were not pretty.

Again, Manning was quite effective on high-percentage attempts, but he repeatedly airmailed receivers beyond the sticks. On a 40-yard streak to tight end Joel Dreessen, he overthrew the 6-foot-4 sequoia by a good 3-4 yards, dropping the ball onto strong safety Jeron Johnson's lap (Watch the play here). Uncharacteristic.

Fluttering deep balls aren't Peyton's only ills. Though he popped back up after getting knocked down against the 'Hawks, durability is still a concern. His response could be much different when he takes a blindside hit.

More worrisome is his track-record in outdoor games. His rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt and touchdowns per game are all lower compared to his performance in a climate controlled venue. With a Week 2 matchup in the Georgia Dome his only indoor clash, it's certainly possible the elements could hinder his overall production.

At this point in his career, he could transform into a Kurt Warner-type, a signal caller who nickel and dimes opponents. Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Jacob Tamme and, once healthy, Ronnie Hillman, makeup a respectable arsenal. Still going just outside the top-50 in Yahoo! leagues (50.5 ADP, QB8), he's not worth the fifth-round pick in 12-team drafts. Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and his Indy replacement, Andrew Luck are better values in terms of draft position.

This season, Peyton's comeback trail will be littered with potholes.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 252.3 yards per game, 28 passing touchdowns, 19 interceptions, 45 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, QB11

Here are seven additional headaches to circumvent in drafts this season. In other words, your cheat-sheet:

Philip Rivers, SD, QB
ADP:  69.5, QB10
The pro-Bolt crowd feels Rivers is destined for a rebound. After a tumultuous season in which the Chargers again failed to deliver on their playoff promise and the QB recorded a career-worst 25 turnovers, those outside of San Diego are more pessimistic. With Ryan Mathews potentially sidelined for the first couple weeks of the regular season, the former Pro Bowler could rage early. But Norv Turner is expected to lean heavily on the run once Mathews is healthy, possibly leaving Rivers' gun-in-holster. Additionally, there are many question marks in the receiving corps outside Antonio Gates. Robert Meachem, though a decent downfield weapon, isn't as talented as the departed Vincent Jackson. And the loss of emerging stud Vincent Brown to a broken foot is bigger blow than most think. To be fair, he finished 2011 No. 8 in per game average mong passers despite his woes. Sadly, though, his stock could dip further this time around.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 263.8 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 38 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jax, RB
ADP:  9.1, RB5
The holdout, despite whispers he could cave soon, may not cross Shad Kahn's deep line-in-the-sand anytime soon. His trade demand, reported by Adam Schefter late Tuesday night, is a strong indication that won't happen, possibly ever. It may seem crazy not to grant MJD's wishes with the back coming off the franchise's first rushing title, but the superb play of contingency plan Rashad Jennings this preseason has made the decision easy. The backup has netted 5.1 yards per carry in exhibition action, close to his 5.4 career regular season mark. Even if MJD returns to the field tomorrow, Jennings will see substantial touches once meaningful games get underway. Add that with the wear and tear MoJo has experienced over the past three years and the Jaguars desire to throw more, and he's a very dicey selection in the back half of Round 2. Learn from Chris Johnson's debacle from a season ago. Back away from the fire.

Fearless Forecast (14 games): 229 carries, 1,010 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 274 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns

DeMarco Murray, Dal, RB
ADP:  27.1, RB12
A fixture on several pundit "breakout" lists, Murray is a dud in disguise. Yes, he is the unrivaled starter in Dallas, but the Cowboys' injury misfortunes (Jason Witten (Spleen), Miles Austin (Hamstring), Dez Bryant (patella tendonitis)) and penetrable offensive line raise red flags. Murray's unfavorable upright running style and general fragility, evident in the numerous lower-body injuries he suffered at Oklahoma and broken foot that cut his rookie season short last year, are major knocks. Also, even though most of the fantasy community has great disdain for Felix Jones, the No. 2 will carve out a larger role than most think. And let's not forget Jason Garrett's sketchy play-calling inside the 10. This star shouldn't shine for you.

Fearless Forecast (12 games): 199 carries, 872 rushing yards, 28 receptions, 193 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns

Michael Turner, Atl, RB
ADP: 39.7, RB15
Andy Behrens wrote a compelling argument denouncing the anti-Burner revolution. Unfortunately, he couldn't be more wrong. The fast-paced Falcons offense simply isn't suited for the clunky back's game. His high odometer reading, advanced age and straight line style aren't a good fit. He's also shown signs of a Shaun Alexander-like regression. Last year, omitting his 172-yard effort against the league's worst run D, Tampa, he tallied a lowly 3.5 yards per carry from Week 12 on. Looking extremely sluggish in preseason action, he's done little to dispel a significant decline isn't in his near future. Falcons head coach Mike Smith's repeated declarations No. 2 Jacquizz Rodgers is a "three-down back" is definitive proof of the organization's decreasing confidence in Turner. At pick No. 40, let someone else swallow cyanide.

Fearless Forecast (14 games): 207 attempts, 746 rushing yards, 16 receptions, 88 receiving yards, 5 rushing touchdowns

Andre Johnson, Hou, WR
ADP:  23.8, WR5
When operating at full-speed, Johnson is one of the league's premier receivers. He's big, ox-strong, speedy and athletic. However, he can't seem to avoid banana peels, felled by various ailments in recent seasons. Only twice since 2007 has No. 80 suited up all 16 games. Without him on the field for chunks of the past two years, Houston has evolved into a run-first juggernaut, spearheaded by Arian Foster and, to a lesser extent, Ben Tate. Even when Matt Schaub was in uniform last year, a stretch of 10 games, Gary Kubiak called "pass" just 42-percent of the time. Given the risks involved, he is an overpriced commodity at his current ADP. Pass on the headache.

Fearless Forecast (13 games): 73 receptions, 1,043 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

Wes Welker, NE, WR
ADP: 29.0, WR8
With PPR leagues the exception, Tom Brady's most trusted underneath ally is terribly overrated. Coming off a career-best 1,569 yards and nine touchdowns, investors are dropping heavy coin on the sticky-fingered wideout. Though another 100 receptions are again achievable, his yardage output and TD total will most certainly drop. With Gronk, Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd clamoring for catches, Brady simply has too many mouths to feed. Expect numbers closer to his TD-starved 2009 and 2010 campaigns. In fantasy, the adage "Never pay for a career year" often applies. This year, Welker is a prime example.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 101 receptions, 1,168 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

Mike Wallace, Pit, WR
ADP: 32.0, WR10
After weeks of trying to pry extra cash out of a franchise that typically doesn't bend to player demands, it appears "60 Minutes'" time is up. On Tuesday, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported the Steelers' leading receiver from a season ago plans to sign his tender and return to camp this weekend. The move is a monumental step in rectifying his tarnished fantasy image, but his prospects of meeting or exceeding what he accomplished in 2011 remains questionable. While away from the Steelers, offensive coordinator Todd Haley installed a new system. That matched with Antonio Brown's emergence has Wallace climbing uphill. If he wants to make an early season impact, his playbook crash course will have to go smoothly. Be smart. If you plan to invest in a Pittsburgh WR this year, dole out the extra dollar for the better-rounded Brown.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 61 receptions, 1,121 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
ADP: 16.7, TE2
Brutishly strong. Handsome. Filthy rich. A connoisseur of adult film stars. We all would love to be Gronk. After a record-shattering season in which he snagged 17 touchdowns, many are shelling out big bucks for his services. Commonly, he's gone in the top-half of Round 2 in 12-team drafts, but, on occasion, has absurdly climbed into the the first-round. Considering the incredible depth at the tight end position and his likely TD downturn — Lloyd will wrest away several downfield targets — he isn't worth snapping tendons for at his current ADP. Hernandez, going some 40 picks later, is actually the better Patriots TE value. Over the last five weeks of '11, Brady actually lined up Hernandez in the cross-hairs more often. Expect that trend to continue.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 78 receptions, 1,058 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns

Others Dudes to Dodge: Adrian Peterson, Min, RB, Frank Gore, SF, RB, Miles Austin, Dal, WR

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

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Tags: back, , , , , , MJD, , Philip Rivers, , , touchdowns, winner's circle
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Former Top-5 Fantasy RB Portis set to retire – Clinton Portis | WAS

21 Aug
2012
by in Fantasy Football, General
Ex-Redskins RB Clinton Portis will announce his retirement at a press conference on Thursday.
Tags: Clinton Portis, , , , , press conference, , , ,
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Juggernaut Index No. 13: The Pittsburgh Steelers

21 Aug
2012
by in General

It's easy to get excited about the season ahead for the Steelers, particularly if you don't dwell on details like these...

• The Steelers' franchise quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, has "a little torn rotator cuff," but claims it's no big deal. "It's OK, just sore." Roethlisberger has taken a beating like few other QBs, enduring 40 or more sacks in five of the past six years;

• Pittsburgh's No. 1 running back, Rashard Mendenhall, is recovering from ACL surgery not likely to be a factor in the opening month of the season. Meanwhile, understudy Isaac Redman is dealing with groin and hip injuries;

• The team's most dangerous receiver, Mike Wallace, is seeking a new deal, hasn't yet reported to camp, and can't be too pleased about the contract recently inked by No. 2 wideout Antonio Brown (six years, $43 million);

• Five-time Pro Bowl linebacker James Harrison had his knee scoped last week, leaving him questionable for Week 1. Another five-time Pro Bowler, nose tackle Casey Hampton, is coming back from an ACL tear suffered in January.

But c'mon, if you can just forget about those things, and perhaps a few others, then you really have to be stoked about this team's outlook for 2012.

GET THE TOWELS IN THE AIR, people! WOOOO!

WOOOOOOOO!

No, seriously, they're dealing with some issues in Pittsburgh. It's not exactly going to be a year-long coronation for the Steelers in the AFC North. But despite the obstacles ahead for this team, there are still plenty of useful pieces for fantasy owners to pick through, even if some of them are slightly dinged.

Roethlisberger is the 14th quarterback off the board in an average draft (ADP 102.6), and he clearly has the potential to deliver a profit at that price. Yes, he's been mauled over the years — he's actually been sacked 83 more times than Peyton Manning, despite playing five fewer seasons — so there's a mileage issue here that dynasty owners will have to consider. But in a redraft, Ben is simply a nice one-year value play, an excellent quarterback at the controls of coordinator Todd Haley's offense.

And what will that offense look like in 2012? Here's a quick preview, from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Alan Robinson:

Todd Haley's offense has something for everyone. For Ben Roethlisberger, there's the promise of virtually free rein to run the no-huddle. ... The offense seems designed — paraphrasing Haley — to run when it has to run and pass when it has to pass. Roethlisberger, the NFL's most-sacked quarterback, should benefit from a system that's designed to keep him upright, in rhythm and on target all while getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible. Kurt Warner loved the Todd Haley offense and Haley seems confident Roethlisberger will, too.

Any comparison to the Warner-era Cards works for me. You might recall that before Haley was the guy who gave Thomas Jones too many carries in KC, he was dialing up a million passes for Arizona, where he served as OC. With weapons like Wallace, Brown and Emmanuel Sanders on the field, Roethlisberger has a shot at a big year.

Of course Wallace isn't yet on the field for Pittsburgh, and that's a problem. Brown is a very nice player — an acceptable No. 2 fantasy receiver — but he's not quite in his teammate's tier. Wallace is a guy who demands extra attention from defenses, a player capable of scoring this way, this way and this way. He's ridiculous. Wallace and Brown are only separated by 3.4 picks in recent drafts (ADP 49.7 vs. 53.1), but the talent gap is wider. It would be a shock if Wallace didn't report in time for the regular season — there are reports out there suggesting we'll see him this weekend. Fantasy owners should happily take any holdout-related discount they can get.

When Wallace arrives, Brown should have more space to operate, so don't assume he'll get an immediate fantasy downgrade. Sanders, a reasonable final-round flier in his own right, knows what's up:

"We all know Mike takes the top off the defense. He stretches the field with his speed. He allows me and Antonio to get (open) underneath. We're excited about having him back. He's a great asset to our receiver corps, and he's a great asset to this team."

Jerricho Cotchery still lurks on the depth chart at receiver, but his contributions should be modest and unownable. Tight end Heath Miller has his loyalists in the fantasy community, though I'm not among them. Let's just acknowledge that he's still around, ready for his usual 40-something catches.

The Steelers' ground game may ultimately deliver respectable team totals, but it seems doubtful that any single player will hog the stats. Redman figures to be the Week 1 starter, assuming he's ambulatory in September, and we'll see doses of both Jonathan Dwyer and Chris Rainey as well. In Pittsburgh's final two games last season, playoff loss included, Redman filled in admirably for Mendenhall. He rushed for 213 yards on 36 carries (5.9 YPC), crossing the goal line once (almost twice) and catching five passes for 39 yards. Dwyer is a 230-pound bruising back who lacks elusiveness; Rainey is a 180-pound elusive back who won't bruise anyone (although he can still generate highlight-quality plays like this one).

[Fantasy: Bold predictions for the 2012 season]

Redman's fantasy stock has taken a nosedive in recent days, triggered by Mendenhall's activation from the physically-unable-to-perform list. He's being taken beyond the top six rounds in fantasy drafts, the 29th running back off the board. That price tag doesn't seem too scary, considering the fact that Redman should receive plenty of work in the opening weeks, then likely enter a job-share with Mendenhall. Based on general manager Kevin Colbert's recent comments regarding Rashard's ETA...

"If you (enter the regular season) on PUP, you're out for six weeks, minimum," Colbert explained. "You can still only continue that same work. So, he felt he was beyond that, the trainers felt he was beyond that, so it was time to take that next step."Now whether he plays in those first six weeks we don't know, but, obviously, we feel there's a chance that could happen. Be it Week 5 or Week 6, that could be a difference."

...you cannot expect a fully operational Mendenhall anytime soon. Remember, this is a player who suffered his knee injury on January 1. It's impressive enough that he'll avoid the PUP list to open the season. Let's not expect 20 carries and triple-digit yardage shortly after his return. In recent drafts, Mendenhall has been selected in the Blount-Leshoure-Jacquizz range (ADP 109.2), which feels just about right. He's a long-term investment, so you'll probably be tempted to launch him when other injuries begin to pile up. But that's a decision for another day.

[More NFL: Titans name Jake Locker starting quarterback over Matt Hasselbeck]

Pittsburgh's defense is ... well, it's old. That's the first thing you notice when you scan the team's depth chart. By my count, seven starters are north of 30, and many of them have injury histories. Of course we've still ranked the Steelers' D as a top-five unit because they have difference-makers at every level. This group held opponents to just 14.2 points and 271.8 total yards per game last season, leading the NFL in both categories. Fantasy scoring is tilted toward takeaways and defensive TDs, however, so Pittsburgh finished as merely a middle-of-the-pack commodity in our game (No. 14). They ranked second in 2010, so it's not as if this defense can't help. The IDPs to target are linebackers LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons and Harrison, plus oft-concussed safety Troy Polamalu.

And so ends our fantasy review of the Steelers. You may now praise or condemn their Juggernaut rank in comments — or you can further the conversation about this team's fantasy potential, which is what we'd all prefer. Please note that the ranks are a gimmick; the team discussion is what matters around here.

2011 team stats: 20.3 PPG (NFL rank 22), 118.9 rush YPG (14), 270.8 pass YPG (9), 35.58 yards/drive (5), 0.170 turnovers/drive (29)

Previous Juggernaut posts: 32. Miami, 31. St. Louis, 30. Indianapolis, 29. Jacksonville, 28. Cleveland, 27. Arizona, 26. Seattle, 25. Minnesota, 24. Tampa Bay, 23. Buffalo, 22. New York Jets, 21. Washington, 20. Oakland, 19. San Francisco, 18. Kansas City, 17. Cincinnati, 16. Denver, 15. Tennessee, 14. San Diego

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Tags: asset, , , , , , , Roethlisberger, ,
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Closing Time: Digging deep with Darin Mastroianni and Dewayne Wise

21 Aug
2012
by in General

There's no one-size-fits-all when it comes to a fantasy column. If we discuss a bunch of targets for shallow leaguers, the deep players roll their eyes. If we get out the magnifying glass for the unowned gems, the standard-league players wonder why they'd ever bother with those scrubs. It's a sliding scale. We try to provide something for everyone and balance the focus, knowing that it's impossible to constantly please everyone.

The opening theme today is going to be looking deep, as we talk about two outfielders who are currently available in 99 percent of Yahoo! pools. Season to taste, adjust to your world and your parameters.

• The Twins season effectively ended a while ago, which means we have to be careful with our Denard Span expectations. Span has a bad shoulder and he's been out of the lineup since Aug. 12. Although an MRI on his collarbone Monday came back clean, he's going to go into the tube again Tuesday (this time for the shoulder). Why should the club take any chances with Span?

Unheralded outfielder Darin Mastroianni is taking advantage of Span's absence, and he might make a helpful fantasy addition. Mastroianni posted a nifty 3-2-2-2 line in Monday's victory at Oakland, with a stolen base. You have to admire his jets: he's swiped 15 bags in 17 attempts, and that's against a modest 126 at-bats. He's also hitting a respectable .286 (with three homers), and his OBP is a playable .345. No one's calling him a star, but if Span's timetable gets pushed back, Mastroianni becomes a player of interest.

• Dewayne Wise is near the end of his career at age 34, and he's already had his signature moment: a dynamite catch that preserved Mark Buehrle's perfect game back in 2009. The Yankees made the move for Ichiro Suzuki because they had no faith in Wise as a regular.

The contending White Sox have Wise back in the fold now, and he'll need to play a fair amount with Alejandro De Aza headed to the disabled list. Wise haunted the Yanks during Monday's victory, collecting two hits (including a homer) and a stolen base. He also struck out three times, but we'll take the category juice at the end of the day. If you can get past Wise's 20 strikeouts against just two walks for the season, maybe there's an interesting player here; he does have six homers and nine steals over a mere 92 at-bats. He's only rostered in one percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• I can't seem to quit Tyler Colvin; just when it seems like I'm out, I get dragged back in. Colvin has been a handy producer this month (.368/.419/.579 slash, eight extra-base hits, two steals), and Michael Cuddyer's oblique injury opens up a natural lineup spot. There's talk that Cuddyer won't play again in 2012, and obviously the Rockies have no reason to rush him back.

Colvin was all over Monday's victory at New York, with a homer, single and walk. He also turned in a nifty play at first base. The sweet-swinging lefty is unowned in 86 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

• Islands in the Stream, that is what we are. Green-light specials for Wednesday include Kris Medlen at Washington (he's a grab and hold for many leagues, but still out there in 52 percent of Yahoo! nation); Hisashi Iwakuma versus Cleveland (look at those super starting numbers); and Matt Harvey versus Colorado (the Rockies are punchless at sea level).

Hotshot rookie Tyler Skaggs (four percent) is a yellow-light play at home against Miami; good luck with Giancarlo Stanton, kid. Ross Detwiler (33 percent) and Bronson Arroyo (14 percent) also wear the yellow jersey.

The red light flashes for Jacob Turner (one percent) and Wade LeBlanc (three percent) at Arizona, that's obvious. And with some sadness, we have to pan slumping Tommy Milone (38 percent) against Minnesota and Anibal Sanchez (67 percent, just silly) against Toronto.

Speed Round: Javier Lopez picked up a one-out matchup save in LA, after Sergio Romo allowed a solo homer to Hanley Ramirez. That's committee life for you. The Jeremy Affeldt-invested owners (like yours truly) were not amused. Madison Bumgarner (8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K) was a shade better than Clayton Kershaw (8 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 10 K) in a gorgeous pitcher's duel. … Ryan Dempster worked eight crisp innings at Texas (4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K), dispatching the Orioles and lowering his AL ERA to 6.04. He's at home against Minnesota this weekend. … Carl Crawford is finally headed to Tommy John surgery, so get your farewells in order. Here's hoping he's on an innings count next year. (I know, he's not a pitcher. It's my last chance to swipe at this $142 million fraud). If you need an outfielder replacement, go back to the first three bullets at the top. … Stephen Drew was dealt to Oakland, a clear sign that Peter Brand is no longer running the club. Drew will need to force his way onto my roster, I won't chase him optimistically. … The Eric Young story was a blast for a few weeks, but he suffered a rib injury Sunday and might need to go on the disabled list. Josh Rutledge (quad) is also nicked up. … Andy Dirks has been a frozen-rope machine in his return to the Tigers lineup, posting a zesty .340/.404/.500 slash over 15 games. There's not a lot of category juice to his game, but he's an interesting add if you need to push forward in batting average. He's free to acquire in 92 percent of Yahoo! leagues. … Manny Machado had a field day against the Royals pitching staff during his debut weekend (thanks for the meatballs, Fraggle Rock), but he's in a 4-for-24 funk since. The rookie also has eight strikeouts overall, one walk. Baseball is hard. Keep your expectations reasonable here.

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Rotoworld Roundup: The Shy-Away Top 40

21 Aug
2012
by in Fantasy Football, General
Evan Silva identifies 40 players to avoid in 2012 fantasy football drafts.
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OK, Seattle, let’s see what Russell Wilson can do against a varsity defense

20 Aug
2012
by in General

Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson has appeared in both of Seattle's preseason games, but he hasn't yet thrown a first-half pass. Thus, we can't say what he might do against a first-string NFL defense, even in an exhibition environment.

Here's what we do know: Wilson has shredded the junior varsity Ds from Tennessee and Denver.

He went 12-for-16 for 124 yards against the Titans in his team's preseason opener, throwing for one TD and rushing for another. On Saturday, he went 10-for-17 for 155 yards and two more scores against the Broncos. Here's the tape of Wilson's touchdown run, a designed keeper, and here's a clip of a perfect throw over the middle, away from coverage. Not too shabby -- almost starting-quality, in fact.


If they're having a legit position battle at QB in Seattle, then Wilson needs to get snaps with the starters on Friday at Kansas City. Matt Flynn still hasn't led a touchdown drive during the preseason (although, to be fair, Terrell Owens dropped a beautifully thrown 46-yarder. Hit him in the hands, in stride). Wilson has shown an ability to make plays from the pocket and on the move, at least against second- and third-string competition. This kid was a terror at Wisconsin last season, passing for 33 scores, running for six, completing 72.8 percent of his throws, and tossing just four interceptions. Along the way, Wilson set the single-season FBS record for passing efficiency (191.8).

[Related: Pressing Questions: Is Cam Newton the biggest scam in fantasy?]

The primary knock on Wilson is that he's undersized, just 5-foot-11. That's a detail that A) he can't really fix, except with horrible surgery, and B) likely prevented him from being an early first-round pick back in April. There's really no doubting his talent, however. The numbers here are ridiculous.

So will he get a look  with the starters anytime soon?

"We'll see," said Pete Carroll on Saturday. "We have to evaluate all that."

OK, then. Keep evaluating, coach. I'll keep grabbing Wilson in dynasty drafts. I'm in no hurry. Flynn still looks like the favorite to open the season as Seattle's starter, but Wilson has a shot to finish with the gig. Tarvaris Jackson, thanks for playing.

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Of all the ‘overrated’ players, Michael Turner might be the most underrated

20 Aug
2012
by in General

If there's one thing you really need to know about fantasy experts, it's that we're herd animals. We drift toward the same players, we veer away from others, we stumble off the same cliffs. Not everyone, all the time. But most of us, a lot of the time (myself included. I claim no special status).

Right now, you cannot find anyone who's willing to say good things about Michael Turner, the man pictured above. The way we're avoiding him, you'd think he was some sort of Lawrence Phillips-Curtis Enis hybrid. The case against Turner is usually built on these facts:

• He's entering his age-30 season, and he's accumulated quite a bit of mileage during his four years in Atlanta;

• Turner has never been much of a factor in the passing game, and the Falcons are expected to deploy an up-tempo, pass-heavy offense in 2012. After two exhibition games, the team's preseason run-to-pass ratio is 39-to-100;

[Related: Over/Under: Will Michael Vick pound the pylons in 2012?]

• Atlanta's coaching staff, from the top down, has repeatedly indicated that the Burner's workload will be reduced in the year ahead;

• He's carried the ball eight times for just 14 yards during the preseason;

• Last year, in Weeks 12-16, Turner averaged 3.3 yards per carry and found the end zone only once.

Is that pretty much everything? I think so. It's a bunch of worrisome facts, and I can't dispute any of them. But as is often the case, things get a bit more complicated when we move beyond the bullet points.

For starters, let's consider Turner's end-of-season collapse in 2011. When experts discuss those final weeks, we typically don't mention the groin injury that kept Turner out of practices in December. And we generally tell you to ignore his 172-yard effort in Week 17 against the Bucs, because they were the Bucs. And obviously we don't want you distracted by all those other weeks, from September to November, when he gained the majority of his NFC-leading 1340 rushing yards. And please, don't get tripped up by his 11 touchdowns, his 4.5 YPC average, or the four runs that went for 50-plus yards. Or the 11 that went for 20-plus.

DON'T FILL YOUR PRETTY LITTLE HEAD WITH SO MANY DETAILS, gamers! We're the experts! You should trust us to tell you which Turner stats matter (this preseason, for sure. No question) and which stats do not (most of last season, except the bad weeks. That was the real thing).

Turner has actually given us back-to-back 1300-yard campaigns and four straight years with double-digit touchdowns. He's been a top-10 fantasy back in standard scoring leagues in three of the past four seasons, and he was more effective on a per-carry basis in 2011 than he was in 2010. When the man gets the ball near the goal line -- which happens fairly often -- you get results like this and this and this and this. (That last TD is probably the best, if you only watch one). There's no reason to think he won't see carries inside-the-5 this season, too. Plus he's tied to an offense that everyone loves. He's never been a PPR monster, of course, and that won't change. But in standard leagues he's been reliably great.

[Related: Pressing Questions: Is Cam Newton the biggest scam in fantasy?]

Honestly, if I weren't supposed to hate Turner so much, I'd really find it easy to build a case for him.

No reasonable person expects the Falcons to be as pass-reliant in 2012 as they've been during the preseason, and let's hope you've all learned not to obsesses over exhibition stats for established players. If you're panicking about this backfield, however, here's offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter's attempt to talk you off the ledge, via the Atlanta Journal Constitution:

"I never worry about the running game in preseason," Koetter said after the Saturday walk-through practice. "I just don't see why you want to plow it up in there and get your backs beat up. We know that Michael Turner can run the football."

[...]

"We are trying to get guys evaluated," Koetter said. "I don't think we forgot how to run the ball overnight."

But still, the herd isn't grazing anywhere near Turner right now. He's fallen about as far as a 1300-yard back possibly can, drafted 18th at his position at Fantasy Football Calculator, and trending down.

[Related: Fantasy: Juggernaut Index No. 14: The San Diego Chargers]

To me, this makes him one of the more underrated names in our game, at least among the pool of supposedly overrated players.

Even if Turner were to lose, say, 70 carries in the year ahead, dropping from 301 to 231, I'd still forecast something close to 1000 yards with 9-12 TDs. That would give you a BenJaruvs-in-2010-style season, which wouldn't exactly kneecap your draft. We have to assume that Atlanta will play situational football in 2012, running the ball when they build a lead -- and they'll build plenty of leads. They're not going to pass 750 times this year. Let's recall that Koetter's last NFL stop was in Jacksonville (2007-11), where they rode the primary back mercilessly.

Bottom line: Sometimes, you need to zig when the experts collectively zag. This is perhaps one of those times. Unless you're cherry-picking data with Turner, it's awfully tough to prove decline. There are no guarantees with any player, but Turner has been a serious asset over multiple seasons, and he'll have more than a cameo role in a terrific offense. Take the discount, endure the abuse in the draft room.

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First Down: Colts’ Brown can do plenty for you

20 Aug
2012
by in General

By nature fanatics are a stubborn species. Creatures of habit, they typically form hasty opinions about players, especially those that burn them, refusing to budge off their original conclusions. No matter how good someone looks, bitter comments, usually qualified with explicit language, are muttered to describe said commodity.

"(Expletive) that dude, I sunk an early round pick in him and he completely screwed me. Never again …"

It's a classic case of once bitten, twice shy.

The Noise is guilty as charged.

When the Colts selected Donald Brown in the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft he was immediately fawned over by several industry prognosticators, me included. Indy GM Bill Polian compared him to a young Thurman Thomas. Though not extraordinary in any single category, his well-rounded talents and friendly fantasy environment were quite alluring. Peyton Manning oversaw one of the league's best-oiled offensive machines, routinely stretching defenses with Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. And, most importantly for Brown, Joseph Addai was on the downside of his career. All in all, it was a prime opportunity for the then rookie to step in and strike instant fantasy riches.

Then he stepped on the field.

At times during his first season, Brown exhibited the skills that persuaded Colts management to heavily invest in his services. But those were rare occurrences. His vulnerability to constant nicks and scrapes and unassertive style soured his value. That year 29.8 percent of his carries went for zero or negative yards. His 5.7 per game mark in standard leagues finished No. 51 among rushers, tied with future Hall of Famer Ryan Moats. Awesome. Knowshon Moreno looked like Adrian Peterson comparatively.

But like a smooth scotch, he just needed time to mature.

Often overlooked because of the Colts' abysmal standing, Brown was quietly productive last season, particularly down the homestretch. Overall, he compiled a career-high 4.8 yards per carry, up from 3.9 in 2010. Most impressive, from weeks 12-15 he averaged 84.5 total yards per game and three touchdowns, including a 22.3 fantasy point thrashing of Tennessee in the second week of the virtual playoffs.

This preseason, it appears momentum has carried over.

Brown has transformed. No longer the tap-dancing deer-in-headlights seen in '09, he is now a confident, decisive slasher. If his first play from scrimmage, a 63-yard score on an inside screen versus St. Louis, is any indication of what's to come, stock up. At his current 60.8 ADP (RB26), his profit potential is rather significant.

Here are four reasons why I'm again bullish on Brown:

Mean Streak. What the rusher exhibited against the Steelers, annually one of the league's elite run defenses, was attention-grabbing. He attacked the line, broke tackles and displayed previously unforeseen power. With Delone Carter nursing sore ribs, he also answered the bell in short-yardage situations, plunging in on a 1-yard score against Pittsburgh first-stringers. Keep that up and he could lead the league in yards after contact per attempt, a category he tied for fifth with pile-drivers Peterson and Michael Turner. Recall, his best clocked 40-yard time is 4.38. Bounce off a would-be tackler or two, and it's adios amigo. He is truly one of the game's most underrated home run hitters.

Versatility. He isn't Matt Forte or Darren Sproles, but Brown is a better-than-advertised check-down receiver. A dark-horse for 30-plus receptions, he should easily eclipse his career benchmark (20) in catches, especially with a young quarterback under center. In PPR leagues, he could develop into one of the finer Garbage Time All-Stars.

Minimal Competition. Chuck Pagano professed his man-love for Brown last week, officially anointing him the starter. Carter will wrest away some short-yardage categories and Vick Ballard may also see a few totes, but Indy is far from a full-blown RBBC. It's likely he'll net roughly 15-18 touches per game.

Andrew Luck. The No. 1 overall pick is the real deal Holyfield. He's polished, poised and fully prepared to leave an indelible mark in his inaugural campaign. The potential loss of Austin Collie, who suffered yet another concussion Sunday, is a significant blow, but Wayne is far from dead and buried and the TE tandem of Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener could be downright nasty. That's enough of an arsenal to prevent overloaded boxes and keep the Colts at-least semi-competitive in games, though Indy's horrid defense remains a concern.

Bottom Line, I've come full-circle on Brown. Once lauded then loathed, he may finally live up to the RB2 hype from three years ago. Bank on him outpacing the likes of Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Willis McGahee, Beanie Wells and Shonn Greene.

This year, draft Brown and he won't make you frown.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 212 carries, 954 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 201 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

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