NFL Skinny: Week 7 preview

16 Oct
2012
by in General

By now, you've probably already bumped up against some of the lineup problems associated with the only six-team bye week of 2012. I'm not sure why two of this week's teams on hiatus couldn't have taken a break with Pittsburgh and Indy back in Week 4, but such is the hand we've been dealt. So deal with it, we shall. Let's dive into the skinniest Skinny of the season:

Total Week 7 green-light plays by position: 7 QB; 11 RB; 14 WR; 8 TE; 5 DST

Note: Numbers in parentheses next to a player's name indicate where he ranks at his position in per game fantasy scoring

QUARTERBACKS


Most FPPG allowed (QB): BUF; CLE; NE; WAS; NO

Least FPPG allowed (QB): DAL; SEA; CHI; ARI; SF

• Andrew Luck, who ranks 2nd in the NFL in pass attempts per game, is coming off a rough outing against the Jets, but the Browns are a cure for what ails a QB. Cleveland has allowed four QBs to throw for at least 300 yards, and the two QBs that didn't reach that mark against the Browns (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning) each threw for 3 TDs.

• Of course, the Colts defense has plenty of issues, as well. Although it sits middle of the pack in FAN PPG allowed to the QB position, Indy has yielded the 4th-highest QB Rating (104.0). Game flow and the fact that the Colts run defense is so bad (see Shonn Greene, Week 6) means that teams haven't really loaded up on them in the passing game. But Brandon Weeden is averaging the 8th-most pass attempts per game, and RB Trent Richardson is iffy with sore ribs. So this feels like another game where Weeden could chuck it 40-50 times. He's a nice looking bye-week play.

• Tony Romo only ranks No. 15 at QB in fantasy, but in terms of FAN PPG allowed to opposing QBs, no signal caller has faced a tougher slate of defenses, thus far. Against what has been a middle-of-the-pack Carolina pass defense, Romo makes an easy case for top 10 consideration at the QB position.

• Ben Roethlisberger's recent history against Cincy leaves a lot to be desired — 203 passing ypg and a combined 4:3 TD-to-INT ratio in his past 5 meetings. But the set-up seems ripe for Big Ben stop the recent downward slide against his AFC North foe. The Bengals allow the 7th-highest yards per pass attempt (ypa) mark (7.9) and QB Rating (99.6), and that's despite facing Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden (twice). For his part, Roethlisberger ranks 4th in QB Rating (99.9) and, because the team has struggled to run the ball and the defense isn't a "steely" as usual, Roethlisberger is throwing a healthy amount (37-plus attempts in 4 of 5 games). I'd ignore the history card for Big Ben this week.

• One history card I'm leery of is that of Jay Cutler, who has averaged 202 passing yards and has just 2 TD passes in his past three meetings with the Lions. Frankly, I'm probably just looking for an excuse to sit Cutler after two good games in Weeks 4-5. You have to go back to his first month in Chicago in '09 to find the last time Cutler produced 3 consecutive above average fantasy lines. Mr. Consistency, he is not.

• According to ProFootballFocus.com's metrics, Pittsburgh ranks as the 2nd-worst pass rush in the league behind New Orleans. Of course, not having Troy Polamalu in the lineup doesn't help. That said, the point remains that this isn't a defense that needs to be feared as it has been in recent seasons, especially if you are the owner of Andy Dalton, the No. 6 fantasy QB, thus far, on a per game basis.

RUNNING BACKS


Most FPPG allowed (RB): NO; JAX; IND; CAR; BUF

Least FPPG allowed (RB): CHI; SF; SEA; MIN; DET

• Matt Forte faces a tough Lions defense on Monday night. Detroit allows just 3.7 ypc and the 5th-fewest FAN PPG to RBs. But Forte has owned the Lions in his career (121.9 yfs per game and a total of 7 TDs in 8 meetings). Coming off a bye week that allowed him to further heal the ankle he sprained in Week 2, I expect Forte's versatility to be used to the fullest against Detroit, and I have him down as a RB1 lock.

• Forgive Stevan Ridley the mere 34 rushing yards against Seattle last week. The Seahawks are a staunch run defense to begin with, and head coach Pete Carroll admitted that stopping the run was their first priority against the Pats. The positive takeaway if you are a Ridley owner is that he handled 16 carries, which was 6 more than Brandon Bolden and Danny Woodhead combined. Bolden tweaked his knee during the game, which means that Ridley is likely to push 20 carries for the fourth time this season on Sunday against the Jets, a team allowing 4.7 ypc.

• Alright, Chris Johnson, after rushing for 91 yards on 19 carries last Thursday against Pittsburgh (and 141 vs. Houston in Week 4), I'm giving you top 10 status this week against what is an awful Buffalo run defense — league-worst 5.8 ypc allowed. Blow it against the Bills and you can forget about rejoining the circle of trust this season. And with 4 meetings remaining with Indianapolis and Jacksonville, it would be nice to feel good about you now at least being able to take advantage of a soft matchup.

• Doug Martin is averaging just 3.8 ypc and LeGarrette Blount, who is seeing increased snaps with each passing week, is a little bit of a concern. But you have to feel real good about Martin this week against a New Orleans defense allowing 5.0 ypc. The Saints also allow 56.2 receiving ypg to RBs, the 5th-most in the league. Given Martin's versatile skill set and the real possibility that this turns into a shootout, Martin has a very good chance to tally even more yards from scrimmage than the 131 he hung on KC last week.

• I'd be inclined to give Vick Ballard another chance this week after his disappointing 8/25 rushing line filling in for Donald Brown against the Jets last week. To be fair to Ballard, the Jets were up 24-3 at halftime and Ballard saw one carry in the final 25 minutes of the game as the team went to a heavy no-huddle approach. This week's opponent, Cleveland, is one of only 3 teams that have allowed 1,000 yfs to opposing RBs. As the clear-cut Brown replacement, Ballard should see double the amount of touches he got last week.

• After posting 166 rushing yards and 3 TDs against Indy, I can certainly see where Shonn Greene could have a huge return to earth performance against the brawny interior defensive line of the Pats (read: Vince Wilfork). New England is allowing just 3.4 ypc and is coming off a shutdown performance against Seattle's Marshawn Lynch (15/41/0). But Greene did average a respectable 83.5 yfs and scored a TD in his 2 meetings with the Pats last season. And, frankly, he's the last man standing in the Jets backfield right now with Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight expected to miss the game with injuries. If the Jets can somehow keep this game somewhat close, Greene should see a heavy workload. He's worth a RB2 dice roll, all things considered.

• Given the questionable status of Trent Richardson's ribs, Montario Hardesty should be a sought after commodity on the waiver wire this week. The matchup for the Browns is fantastic, as Indy allows 5.0 ypc and the 3rd-most FAN PPG to RBs. And, in relief of T-Rich last week, he had a nice 15/56/1 line against Cincy. The 3.7 ypc may not look like much, but the visual evidence was impressive. Hardesty looked healthy and ran decisively. If Richardson can't go, bump Hardesty into Felix Jones, Fred Jackson, Greene territory.

WIDE RECEIVERS


Most FPPG allowed (WR): WAS; CLE; NO; BUF; SD

Least FPPG allowed (WR): STL; SF; DAL; NYJ; MIN

• In this week's Scouting Notebook, Michael Salfino called Joe Haden overrated after returning from a four-week layoff to allow A.J. Green to go for 7/135/2 in Week 6. Pretty harsh, and rash, indictment of someone that allowed only one opposing "No. 1" receiver to top 100 yard against him last season — surprise, it was A.J. Green again. Haden has always passed the eye test with me, and according to ProFootballFocus.com's metrics, he was a top 5 rated corner in pass coverage last season and No. 3 in his rookie season of '10. This season, he sits at No. 13 after his two games of work. I'm guessing the QB Rating allowed metric that Salfino sources as his reason for him being overrated probably isn't the best stat by which to judge a corner (and, it's worth mentioning, Haden was 4th-best in QB Rating allowed as a rookie). The point here is that I think Haden is a damn good corner, one of the best, in fact. I'll cut him some slack for allowing a big day to A.J. Green. And I'll suggest to Reggie Wayne owners that they should feel damn lucky if Wayne reaches my No. 11 ranking for him this week given the matchup.

• No doubt about it, Dez Bryant is a frustrating player to own, and an extremely annoying player to watch. Last week, Bryant let a 2-point conversion pass attempt slip right through his hands. Had he caught it, Dallas would have at least pushed Baltimore to overtime. Bryant cried that he was interfered with, but the replay showed that if there was any contact, it wasn't enough to excuse him of the drop. And while drops have come with the territory in recent weeks, you can't fault his 2 TDs and 100 receiving ypg over his past two games. This week, he faces a Carolina defense that has been better than average against the pass. But I see two monster games from "big" targets Roddy White (8/169/2) and Ramses Barden (9/138), and it makes me feel better about Bryant's prospects this week. But, if you're a Bryant owner, you should probably just do yourself a favor and not watch how Bryant derives his totals.

• Percy Harvin not only leads WRs in receptions (49), but he also has 15 carries, which is 10 more than any other receiver save Nate Burleson, who has 8. And Harvin has returned 12 kickoffs, 1 that went for a TD. With his breakaway ability and super-sized workload, I see a tough matchup like Arizona and I could care less. If he's (mostly) healthy, Harvin will most likely be in my top 5 at WR.

• Over the past 5 weeks, Denarius Moore ranks No. 23 among WRs in FAN PPG, better than Dez Bryant. Among those with at least 10 receptions, he ranks 10th with a yards per reception rate of 16.9. Moore has a great chance to build upon his early success this week against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed an average of more than 205 passing yards to opposing WRs over their past 3 games.

• I moved Randall Cobb all the way up to No. 24 at WR before kickoff of last Sunday's games. With Greg Jennings and Cedric Benson out, I figured Cobb might see more time as a receiver and maybe get a little more work in backfield sets. Cobb didn't end up seeing a carry against Houston, but he rewarded my faith with a top 25 finish, thanks to his 7/102 receiving line. After averaging 22 snaps in his first three games of the season, Cobb is clearly getting a boost from Jennings' groin problem, as he's averaged 41 snaps the past three games. This week's opponent, St. Louis, allows the fewest FAN PPG to WRs, but I'm sticking by Cobb as a WR2 again with it looking likely that Jennings will again sit. Green Bay's offense is finally hitting on all cylinders and, when that happens, I'll bet on the Packers being able to impose their offensive will on anyone.

• Brandon Gibson is getting a lot of attention this week as a waiver wire pickup after a healthy 7/91 line last week against Miami. I'm on board with the Gibson recommendation, as the Rams will likely have to throw often against the Packers, and the Green Bay secondary has allowed the 12th-most FAN PPG to WRs. But don't sleep on Gibson's running mate, Chris Givens. The rookie is averaging a ridiculous 28.1 yards on his 7 catches, and he's caught a pass of 50-plus yards in three straight games.

• Be careful not to overrate Josh Gordon this week. Of his 36 fantasy points scored over the past 2 weeks, 70 percent of it came on 2 catches, both TD grabs of 62-plus yards. It's not easy to survive on a big-play diet, and he faces an Indy team that has allowed just 2 pass plays of 40-plus yards (Alshon Jeffery and Cecil Shorts). I see Gordon and Givens as fairly similar.

TIGHT ENDS


Most FPPG allowed (TE): TEN; WAS; DEN; NE; DET

Least FPPG allowed (TE): IND; NO; NYG; JAX; ARI

• Only Tony Gonzalez and Fred Davis have more receiving yards than Jermaine Gresham at the tight end position over the past month. Gresham is the No. 6 fantasy TE overall in that span. Gresham's on a roll, and a Troy Polamalu-less Steelers defense has been nothing to fear this season. Go Gresham this week, if you got him.

• Kyle Rudolph is looking rather Gronkowski-ish this season. His TD in Week 6 looked like it was a back-of-the-end-zone throw away toss by QB Christian Ponder, but Rudolph went up and plucked it out of the air, no problem. Rudolph ranks 2nd behind Heath Miller in TE red zone targets. But he ranks just 17th in receiving yards at the position, relying on his TDs to land him among the top 10 at the position in FAN PPG. Against a fast, physical defense like Arizona, which ranks as the 5th-best in fantasy at limiting TEs in fantasy, I have a little hesitation when it comes to Rudolph this week.

• Martellus Bennett is worth following closely this week to see how healthy he looks in practice. His production has suffered in recent weeks as he's dealt with a sore knee. But he's facing a Washington defense that has allowed the 2nd-most FAN PPG to TEs, allowing season-high yardage totals to Tony Gonzalez and Jimmy Graham, while Jermaine Gresham and Kyle Rudolph finished just shy of their season highs against the 'Skins.

• The Giants allow the 3rd-fewest FAN PPG to TEs, and are one of just 5 teams that has yet to allow a TE TD (Miami, Baltimore, Jacksonville and New Orleans are the others). Fred Davis is the only TE with at least 300 receiving yards without a TD, and Brandon Myers is the only other TE with at least 200 receiving yards sans a score. Davis' red zone concerns (ranked just 32nd among TE in RZ targets) are enough to bump him to the TE1/TE2 bubble this week.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS


Most FPPG allowed (DST): DET; KC; CIN; DAL; PHI

Least FPPG allowed (DST): NYG; NE; WAS; BAL; HOU

WEEK 7 GAME PREDICTIONS

San Francisco 19, Seattle 17
Green Bay 27, St. Louis 16
New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 27
Dallas 28, Carolina 20
Minnesota 23, Arizona 17
Buffalo 30, Tennessee 27
NY Giants 31, Washington 24
Indianapolis 27, Cleveland 22
Houston 29, Baltimore 24
Oakland 28, Jacksonville 18
New England 34, NY Jets 17
Cincinnati 26, Pittsburgh 24
Chicago 23, Detroit 20
Tags: , , Corner, , FAN PPG, , Hardesty, , Shonn Greene, , ,
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Target Practice, Week 6: Antonio Gates shows up, finally

16 Oct
2012
by in General

If there was anything for Chargers fans to feel good about following Monday night's collapse (obviously there wasn't, not really, but let's just fake it), then the reemergence of Antonio Gates was that thing. Gates hauled in six balls on 10 targets, visiting the end zone twice and finishing with 81 receiving yards. And he nearly decapitated Denver's Mike Adams. He totaled 20.1 standard fantasy points in Week 6, which represents 58.4 percent of his year-to-date scoring. Better late than never, I suppose.

Gates has seen seven or more targets in every game he's played this season but one (Week 4, at KC), so we can't really blame his slow start on a lack of opportunities. He hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row of opposing defenses, either (Oak, Atl, KC, NO, Den). But we're talking about a player with a tremendous history, great rapport with his (very sketchy) quarterback, and the man is healthier than he's been in years (we think. It's the NFL, so you never know). Clearly his big game against the Broncos was a nice sign.

It would be nice if San Diego could put another competent receiver on the field other than Gates and Malcom Floyd, but Vincent Brown (ankle) isn't quite yet ready to practice, and he's not eligible to appear in a game until November 1. (You might wanna add Brown now, by the way. His services are needed, urgently). Gates will get a string of unintimidating defenses after the bye — Cle, KC, TB, Den, Bal, Cin — so his schedule shouldn't scare you off. If he continues to see 7-10 targets per week, the end-of-year numbers will look just fine.

Below, you'll find the full Week 6 target leader board, ready for immediate use...

• Rams receiver Brandon Gibson had a mostly excellent day in Week 6, making at least one highlight grab (a sideline one-hander). For however long Danny Amendola is sidelined, Gibson gets a value boost. St. Louis will likely need to throw all afternoon against Green Bay this week.

• Brian Hartline had his only targets negated by penalties on Sunday, but he was on the field. He just didn't make his way into the box score. After Miami's bye, he's facing a potential match-up with Antonio Cromartie, so you might want to find an alternative.

• Cedric Peerman drew an unexpectedly significant target total in Sunday's loss, and he'll no doubt see additional work in the weeks ahead, with Bernard Scott (knee) on IR. He's still little more than a desperation heave for deep-leaguers, however.

• Note the target and reception totals for Adrian Peterson in the Week 6 loss to Washington (8, 7). All-Day currently ranks sixth at his position in total targets, having caught 20 balls on 23 chances. He's on pace to set career highs in both looks and catches this season, becoming a greater PPR asset than most of us had expected.

• Donnie Avery isn't actually catching a huge percentage of the balls thrown his way, but he's getting plenty of opportunities (47 targets for the year, 12 on Sunday). With so many useful fantasy receivers on bye this week (Julio, Roddy, Bowe, Maclin, D-Jax, Decker, Demaryius, Floyd, Eddie [expletive] Royal), Avery will probably land higher in my ranks than anyone's comfortable with. Apologies in advance.

Tags: Antonio Cromartie, Antonio Gates, , , KC, , , reemergence, , Vincent Brown, ,
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Mostly NFL Notes: Week 6 Recap

16 Oct
2012
by in General

After a major hiccup in Kansas City, the Ravens' offense got back on track Sunday, but Baltimore has won its last four games by an average of just 3.3 points, so they haven't exactly looked dominant. Should be interesting to see them travel to Houston to face a Texans team coming off an embarrassing loss on national television in Week 7 in a battle between the two teams with the best record in the AFC…This Ravens defense already looked nothing like its usual formidable self even before losing Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb to season-ending injuries. Fantasy owners shouldn't hesitate to start players against Baltimore moving forward…Tony Romo has got 6.7 YPA with a 0:5 TD:turnover ratio on third downs this season, good for a 43.4 QB Rating…Of course Dez Bryant ends his big 13-catch, two touchdown day by dropping a two-point conversion with the Cowboys down two points. Moreover, after that happened, Dallas recovered the ensuing onside kick with just 30 seconds left, then got a huge 20-yard penalty only to see Dan Bailey miss a field goal, which was just such a Cowboys way to lose. You couldn't draw it up any better, right down to Jason Garrett once again botching endgame time management.

After starting his career 15-for-15, my boy Greg The Leg missed three FG attempts Sunday, although in fairness two of them came from 52 and 66 yards out in windy conditions outdoors (he previously was 10-for-10 from 40+ yards)…Steven Jackson continues to look slow and worn down, as he's now getting just 3.6 YPC on the year, and the Rams' coaching staff is wisely catching up, giving Daryl Richardson just one fewer carry Sunday (11 to 12). It's a major concern for Jackson owners moving forward. This tends to happen to running backs with 2,600+ career touches, although to be fair, his schedule has been brutal, as all six of the Rams' opponents this year have been in the top half of the league in YPC against, including four in the top-10…Brian Hartline was held to a goose egg Sunday, not just in catches but also targets (although he did receive two looks that were erased thanks to penalties). Since racking up 253 yards (the 18th most ever in a single game in NFL history), he has totaled four catches for 59 yards over the last two weeks. I wish I were here to tell you I told you so, but I bid aggressively on him afterward, so that's anything but the case. Cortland Finnegan was impressive Sunday, but Hartline has a bye and then a matchup with a Jets squad that may shadow him with Antonio Cromartie, so it's tough sledding in the short-term…Reggie Bush has averaged just 2.8 YPC over the past three games.

This lady wants deer crossing signs moved to avoid accidents.

The Eagles don't have a sack since Week 3, which actually makes their secondary all the more impressive, as they have allowed just 6.2 YPA and a 69.4 QB Rating, although it remains perplexing why they had Nnamdi Asomugha shadow Calvin Johnson for the first three quarters Sunday and then abandoned that strategy in the fourth and overtime. Other than the team's 27-6 Week 3 loss in Arizona, Philly's average margin of victory/defeat this season has been 1.8 points over five games. That's pretty nuts…The Lions have scored a total of 44 points over the first three quarters of their games this season. They have scored 66 points in the fourth quarter (and another three points in overtime)…Sad news about Jahvid Best, who now looks almost assuredly never to step on a football field again…Matthew Stafford is on pace to attempt 698 passes this season, while Michael Vick is on pace to commit 35 turnovers.

This prank phone call is pure genius.

It's pretty crazy how much better Brandon Weeden has looked in the NFL than his former teammate Justin Blackmon has so far…I hope Trent Richardson's injury isn't serious, but Montario Hardesty joins Felix Jones in what looks like an interesting week to be aggressive with your FAAB…With Andy Dalton seemingly taking a legitimate step forward in Year 2 (and a defense taking a step back along with a struggling running game), it's hardly a stretch to call A.J. Green the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver and a top-five fantasy asset. He absolutely dominated Joe Haden on Sunday. Green versus Calvin Johnson ROS is a pretty interesting debate right now.

With Indy coming off such an emotional come-from-behind win against the Packers and the Jets a wounded animal after back-to-back losses playing their third straight home game, it wasn't exactly surprising to see New York easily handle the Colts on Sunday, but I can't say I saw Shonn Greene's outburst coming. In fact, he was on my bench in the high-stakes Stopa Law Firm league in which we start 3WR, 2RB, 2TE and 2FLEX. I actually considered dropping him beforehand more than I did starting him, so yes, he's a "sell" if possible. I'm just not sure how realistic that is. Greene's previous three opponents all ranked as top-11 defenses as far as allowing fantasy points against running backs, but his schedule doesn't exactly ease up moving forward, as three of his next four opponents do (rank inside top-11) as well. In fact, Greene doesn't face a defense that ranks in the bottom half in fantasy points against RBs until Week 14…Vick Ballard didn't exactly impress during his start Sunday, has got just 67 yards on 29 carries so far this year and plays for a poor-run blocking team, but at least his upcoming opponent (Cleveland) has allowed 4.6 YPC this season. He's not the worst desperation play in a week that has a whopping six teams on bye.

This is one strange weather report.

If anyone can make Matt Cassel look good, it's his backup Brady Quinn. I haven't told this Cassel story since joining Yahoo, so here it is one more time: once while visiting some of my friends in USC back in college after a night of drinking, we ended up on some fraternity row, and my friend challenged Cassel (I had no idea who he was at the time. He was backing up Carson Palmer) to a race on the street. They made a bet, and my friend smoked him. Cassel was extremely upset and demanded a rematch (and changed his shoes). This time, my friend actually let him get a head start, and he easily caught up and beat him again. Cassel was irate (his girlfriend had to console him) and never paid up. Tangent over…Josh Freeman has got 7.7 YPA or better in three of his past four games, including a monster effort Sunday that I certainly didn't see coming. He now faces a Saints team at home in a highly favorable matchup in Week 7…Does Philip Rivers actually miss Vincent Jackson more than Jackson misses Rivers?...What was the Bucs punter thinking here? Obviously a safety was preferable to a touchdown...This is pretty crazy, but do you realize the Chiefs (who have won a game) have actually held a lead in a game this season for exactly zero seconds?

This guy asks to borrow a stranger's cell phone. Then promptly walks away.

The Falcons sure made a bunch of Survivor players sweat it out, as they continue to look worse than their undefeated record indicates. Matt Ryan has finished with fewer than 7.0 YPA in four of the past five games. Atlanta has allowed 5.2 YPC (second-highest in the NFL) and 7.6 YPA (11th highest) this year, while rushing for just 3.6 YPC (fifth-lowest). The Falcons have been strong on special teams and have committed few penalties, but something's got to give here…Carson Palmer is on pace to finish with 4,589 passing yards this season, which would be top-25 all time. Of course, his lack of touchdowns limit his fantasy value, but he's just now getting back fully healthy weapons in Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore (who looks like a legit top-25 fantasy WR while healthy)…In any league that's even halfway deep, Mike Goodson must be owned…The Raiders had zero interceptions this season before picking off Matt Ryan three times in the first half Sunday…The Raiders tried to "ice " Matt Bryant, who missed that ensuing attempt before making the following one that counted, but that wasn't even close to the biggest coaching mistake. Oakland (mind-bogglingly) called a timeout with 44 seconds left in the fourth quarter at Atlanta's two-yard line on second down behind seven points (they had two timeouts left). Please think about this. If you're a Falcons fan, you are ecstatic at the time. Predictably, giving the Falcons 40 seconds resulted in them kicking a game-winning field goal on the following drive.

If by "worst" you mean "best" pickup lines then I agree.

Stevan Ridley is coming off a disappointing performance in which he totaled just 35 yards, but it came in Seattle, which is quite possibly the toughest environment in all of football right now, and Brandon Bolden appears to have aggravated his knee injury. Ridley's 25 red-zone carries this year are the second most in the league and five more than the next closest (Marshawn Lynch)…Over his last four games, Wes Welker has 40 catches for 513 receiving yards, which is a season's pace good for 160 receptions and 2,052 receiving yards…With the impressive comeback victory by the Seahawks (so is that why New England typically continues to be aggressive even with big leads?), every team in the AFC East is now 3-3…With six seconds left in the first half, the Pats ran a play from the Seattle three-yard line, which I was on board with, but it was surprising to see Tom Brady then proceed to get an intentional grounding penalty (not unlike in last year's Super Bowl) with one second left, ruining a chance for a field goal as the clock was required to run 10 seconds as a result…I'll be at the Seahawks' Thursday night game in San Francisco, hoping for some regression on both ends (not happy the SF Giants game is scheduled for literally the exact same time).

Huge cannabis plant found in elderly couple's garden.

C.J. Spiller is still tied for the second most broken tackles in the NFL with 20 and leads the league by a wide margin with 5.2 YPC after contact (next best is 3.5). He's getting 7.6 YPC on the year! Next best is Robert Griffin at 6.9. Spiller is also getting 10.8 yards-per-catch. Pro Football Focus has him graded as the second-best running back this year (with a negative blocking rank, which means little to fantasy owners), and the one RB ahead of him (Adrian Peterson) has played 107 more snaps. But Fred Jackson, who shed his knee brace Sunday (and still got more touches despite losing a fumble on the first play of the game), is pretty good himself, so this is without question a full-blown timeshare…Buffalo is the only team in the NFL that hasn't scored in the last two minutes of either half this season…I don't blame Brad Smith (although he should be) for throwing such a horrible interception late in the fourth quarter, because whenever a coach dials up a play for someone not used to the situation, it's apparent a throwaway simply should never be expected based on piles of evidence…William Powell, whom Larry Fitzgerald praised in a big way during the preseason, sure passed the eye test. But Arizona probably has the worst offensive line in football, so I'm not sure how much it matters, especially considering their upcoming schedule (@MIN, SF, @GB)…The Bills elected to punt at the Cardinals' 35-yard line in overtime, which resulted in a touchback. Wow.

I really love when TBS or FOX switches their baseball coverage to the camera angle behind the plate — says no one ever. Seriously, I've killed for less.

Despite reaching the Redskins' 10-yard line three separate times in the first quarter, the Vikings left with just a 9-0 lead, which obviously hurt them later on…I can understand why many are advising trying to buy Adrian Peterson right now, but I also think it's clear he's being hampered by an ankle injury that would probably sideline most mortals…Robert Griffin's 76-yard TD run Sunday (in essentially garbage time for his fantasy owners) was the second longest ever by a quarterback. His 138 rushing yards were the most in a game since Michael Vick in 2006 and puts him on pace to finish with 1,011, falling just short of Vick's NFL record (1,039). RG3 has also got 8.3 YPA while throwing to a weak group of receivers. Highly impressive.

As a 49ers fan, that wasn't exactly the "payback" I was hoping for against the Giants. That game was more competitive than the final score showed, but the Giants were extremely impressive (their receivers simply dominated, and Eli Manning taking zero sacks was a surprise). Alex Smith didn't play well at all, and why I get the argument Colin Kaepernick was used too much Sunday, I don't exactly buy that as an excuse for Smith's interceptions…Carlos Rogers dropped an easy would-be pick, but San Francisco didn't even reach the red zone, so plenty of props should be given to the Giants, who need to be ignored in any statistical model (whether it be Brian Burke's, Massey-Peabody's, Numberfire's, etc.), as they have clearly established themselves as a team whose results mean nothing based on opponent. They could lose at home against the worst team in the league just as easily as they could beat the best team on the road.

This article about baseball and stat geeks is hilarious.

What a performance by the Packers, possibly the best by any team in the NFL so far this season. Hope you weren't facing Aaron Rodgers in your fantasy league…Remarkably, James Jones has caught two touchdowns in each of the past three games, hauling in half of his receptions over that span for scores…Jordy Nelson owners can breathe a big sigh of relief. One of his three touchdowns actually came one play after Houston jumped off sides during a Green Bay punt attempt, giving the Packers a new set of downs…Alex Green looks like the clear beneficiary of Cedric Benson's injury, as Green Bay immediately treated him like a workhorse. The Packers don't run block all that well, but Green suddenly looks like a solid flex option. James Starks remains irrelevant…The two touchdowns saved his fantasy day, but it was surprising to see Arian Foster rush for just 29 yards on 17 carries. Houston's run blocking has taken a major step back this year, as Foster has now got only 3.8 YPC on the season. He remains an obvious elite fantasy option, but one other small area of concern is his lack of usage as a receiver. After racking up 53 catches for 617 receiving yards over 13 games last season, Foster is on pace to finish this year with just 29 and 192.

Longread of the week: An oral history of "The Wire."

Versus the Falcons, Texans, Patriots and Chargers, the Broncos have started collectively down 96-12. Their average margin of defeat during those five games is 2.75. That's pretty crazy…The Broncos overcame the second largest halftime deficit and also tied the biggest comeback by a road team in NFL history during their win Monday night…Nice to see Antonio Gates has a pulse. Hopefully it's a sign of a big second half moving forward…Eric Decker could've had an even bigger night had he not tripped and fell over his own feet while running alone toward a sure would-be long touchdown…The Chargers finish the year facing the Panthers, Jets and Raiders, so it will be fitting when the team ends on a high note, giving Norv Turner yet another reprieve.

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Tags: , , , , Shonn Greene
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Slingbox’s Waiver Wired: No Free Fall for Felix

16 Oct
2012
by in Fantasy Football, General
Chris Wesseling delves into Felix Jones' fantasy potential in this week's Waiver Wired.
Tags: fall, , , Slingbox, ,
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Flames: Palmer, Raiders D/ST your remedies for the bye week blues

16 Oct
2012
by in General

Each week the Noise highlights 12-13 somewhat obscure, unobvious names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post the results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 7 Flames in the comments section below.

Carson Palmer, Oak, QB (12-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Jax
For whatever reason, the fantasy community must feel Palmer carries a contagion. Despite eclipsing 20 fantasy points in three of his past four games, most continue to keep the signal caller at arm's length. However, this week, because of bye week hell, fanatics need to trust his services. Palmer pinned last week's giveaway in Atlanta on himself blaming his poor ball security and mental missteps for the loss. Back in the Black Hole, look for him to kiss and make-up with the Raiders faithful. Defensively, the Jaguars are the new Hello Kitties of the NFL. Pounded via ground and air, they are an overly generous defense. Over the past three weeks, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler each threw for at least 244 yards and two touchdowns against them. On the season, corners Rashean Mathis and Aaron Ross have allowed a QB rating of 106.2. Due to Darren McFadden's ongoing inconsistencies and with Denarius Moore blossoming, Palmer will be leaned on Sunday. Bank on the man in black.

Fearless Forecast: 22-33, 262 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 3 rushing yards, 21.4 fantasy points

Felix Jones, Dal, RB (18-percent started)
Matchup: at Car
It's true Jones would likely shred a ligament reading a book. The delicate back, who the Noise pimped heavily preseason last year, excels at disappointment. But with DeMarco Murray out of action for the foreseeable future due to ligament damage in his foot, the once overhyped commodity has a chance at redemption. Don't expect him to spoil his second chance. Considering its gross inadequacies defending the run, a mortally wounded walrus would likely drag its way to 100-yards and a touchdown against Carolina. This season, the Panthers have routinely received failing grades on gap assignments. On the year, they've surrendered 4.8 yards per carry 123 rushing yards per game and the most receiving yards to RBs. In relief of Murray, Jones looked spectacular last week in Baltimore. He attacked the line, forced missed tackles and was quick around the edge, a far cry from the out of shape rusher who failed a conditioning test in training camp. On 19 touches he totaled 105 yards, 55 of which were after contact. Yes, Phillip Tanner will wrest away roughly 10-12 touches, but if the Dallas offensive line can dominate the line of scrimmage again and Jones can stave off the injury imp, he's in line to post top-12 numbers in Week 7. Start him with confidence.

Fearless Forecast: 16 carries, 77 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 13 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.5 fantasy points

LeGarrette Blount, TB, RB (5-percent started)
Matchup: vs. NO
Though Doug Martin is the clear-cut No. 1 by the Bay, there's a puff or three still left in Blount. No longer in need of car service, the "Lazy" rusher purchased an alarm clock, has shown up to team meetings on time and has put in the work, earning the respect of Greg Schiano and his teammates. As a result his snap count has steadily risen over the past three weeks climbing from 6-to-12-to-18. His seven carries for 58 yards and a score in a blowout win against Kansas City in Week 6 was his finest fantasy performance since Week 14 last year. In the encore, don't be surprised if he totes the rock 10-plus times for the first time in 2012. Unsurprisingly, the Saints are rather 'hole-y' on defense, particularly up the middle. In five games, they've yielded 5.0 yards per carry, 141.2 rushing yards per game and six end-zone plunges to RBs, equal to the most fantasy points allowed. In order to control clock and keep Drew Brees on the sidelines for as long as possible, look for Schiano to feature a power run game with Martin and Blount. If the much improved Tampa defense, especially the secondary, can rise to the challenge and keep the game competitive, the backup is in line for a top-24 day. FLEX him in 12-team and deeper leagues.

Fearless Forecast: 11 carries, 60 rushing yards, 1 reception, 4 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 13.1 fantasy points

Brandon Gibson, StL, WR (9-percent started)
Matchup: vs. GB
Don't call him 'Debbie.' Filling the void for injured starter Danny Amendola, Gibson stepped up last week in Miami catching seven passes (on nine targets) for a career-best 91 yards, including a one-handed Madden-esque grab. At times over his four-year tenure in the league, he's shown flashes of star potential, but misroutes and a lack of chemistry with Sam Bradford made him wildly erratic. But it appears he's learned form the mental mistakes, realizing the personal opportunity currently at stake. Green Bay, uneven defensively over the first few weeks of the season, was dynamite in coverage last week, vexing Matt Schaub on numerous occasions. Still, evident against Indianapolis a couple weeks ago, the Packers secondary can be exploited. Though it's unlikely Bradford will channel the football ghost of Kurt Warner, he will likely be pressed into a high volume situation, enhancing Gibson's scoring potential. In a performance worthy of a Garbage All-Star nom, the wideout could clean-up late. Employ him as a WR3 in 12-team and deeper PPR leagues.

Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 88 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 13.3 fantasy points

Kenny Britt, Ten, WR (19-percent started)
Matchup: at Buf
For the sake of his queasy supporters, Britt better cover his gloves in reversible tape. Though his final stat line was commendable last week versus Pittsburgh (4-62-1), the wideout didn't make it look easy, plagued by a case of the bobbles. Mike Munchak blamed Britt's skittishness on the receiver's missed practice time and learning curve with the club's revised playbook. But the health of his surgically repaired knee is no longer a concern. If he can master the offense quickly, he should produce steady yields moving forward, starting this week versus Buffalo He's simply too talented not to. "Unkind" best describes how opponents have treated the Bills this year. Nine wide receivers have scored at least 10 fantasy points against them. Combined Stephon Gilmore and Aaron Williams have allowed 16.0 yards per catch. Because of Britt's big-play ability, look for Matt Hasselbeck to target him early and often downfield, en route to his finest effort yet this season.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 83 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.1 fantasy points

SHOCKER SPECIAL (Under 10-percent started)

Brandon Weeden, Cle, QB (6-percent started)
Matchup: at Ind
Weeden, who fought alongside Zach Taylor during the Mexican-American War, may be ancient for a rookie, but he's shown plenty of piss and vinegar over the past five weeks. During that stretch he's totaled at least 231 passing yards in each game and tallied a respectable 7:6 TD:INT split. At times he's been overly reckless, but forging a strong relationship with home run hitter Josh Gordon of late, Weeden has connected on a number of explosive pass plays. And according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer's very scientific study of each of his throws against Cincinnati, the passer is coming off his finest performance to date. Teams have battered Indy most often between the tackles, but they've also registered a great deal of vertical success. Four quarterbacks have found the end-zone twice in a game versus the Colts this year. Count on Weeden becoming the fifth. Keep in mind if Trent Richardson sits, Pat Shurmur may install a more air-minded game-plan. Better yet, the Browns' wayward defense could turn this contest into a shootout.

Fearless Forecast: 21-34, 253 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 4 rushing yards, 20.1 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 7 FLAMES

TEAM HUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK

Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Flames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Mondays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader Record: 19-22 (46.3%)

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

Tags: , , Carson Palmer, , , fantasy points, , ,
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Monday Dinner: Brave new world for AFC North, Houston Texans

15 Oct
2012
by in General

The AFC North used to be three yards and a cloud of dust. These days, it's 30 points and the wink of an eye.

Has the fantasy public adjusted? Or are we still clinging to those hard-to-remove name brands?

The Houston Texans entered the year with the consensus No. 1 running back and a well-respected offensive line. These days, Arian Foster has a 3.8 YPC and the Texans line is buried in the Pro Football Focus metrics.

Has the fantasy public adjusted? Why did I see the Texans line ranked No. 1 on a fantasy site last weekend? Are analysts still clinging to those hard-to-remove name brands?

The Texans and Ravens will play an important, and fascinating, temperature game in Week 7. Baltimore's defense was already without Terrell Suggs (the only pass rusher of any consequence), and now Ray Lewis (the run-stuffer and emotional leader) and Lardarius Webb (the best cover corner) are down for the season. Even those slow to accept a changing of the guard will figure out that the Ravens are in a new place now. Baltimore used to beat you up in the sandlot; now, it's all about pinball scoring in the arcade.

[Related: Devastating news for fearsome NFL star Ray Lewis]

Will Houston be able to run over the wounded Ravens? A year or two ago, this would be a slam dunk. But the Texans front line hasn't been reliably opening holes this year. At last check on Pro Football Focus, the Houston offensive line stood 17th in run blocking and 16th in pass blocking.

Foster's fantasy value is still riding high due to the volume, of course. He's scored seven times. He's collected an insane 149 carries, tops in the league — that's 21 totes ahead of second-place Marshawn Lynch, and 31 rushes ahead of third-place Stevan Ridley. I might not have Foster at the top spot in this week's Shuffle Up, but you can't slide him down too far. He's still a fairly safe fantasy play, no matter how the efficiency stats look.

Back to the AFC North, let's have a quick check-in on Baltimore's three rivals and how their current identify differs from what we might have expected back in training camp.

The power-football theme of Pittsburgh is as good as dead. The Steelers defense has been riddled by Matt Hasselbeck and Carson Palmer in recent road losses, and Pittsburgh's run blocking is third-worst in the league according to Pro Football Focus. I'm not chasing the dream of Rashard Mendenhall, but I'd be happy to ride with Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Wallace or Antonio Brown anywhere. Heath Miller has been a steady third-tier tight end as well.

Many of us expected Cleveland to stay conservative this year, try to win games with a solid defense while its inexperienced quarterback got comfortable. Sounded nice on paper, anyway. Brandon Weeden stands fifth in the league in pass attempts, and the Browns have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league. Getting corner Joe Haden back is a boost, but his presence didn't stop the Bengals passing game Sunday (Andy Dalton went for 381 yards, including a 57-yard touchdown to A.J. Green that came on Haden's watch).

Dalton has taken a step up in class during his second season. His YPA has jumped from 6.6 to 8.0, he's throwing for 75 additional yards per game, and his rating has spiked 11.3 pointed. Dalton threw for 20 scores as a rookie; he's on pace for 32 this year. No one's hiding him in this offense, and that's important when the Cincinnati secondary is allowing 7.9 YPA and a 99.6 rating. Whole lotta spiking going on.

[Related: Winners and losers from week 6 in the NFL]

This is the strangest year, like every year is. Welcome to the NFL. Let's live in the present, gamers.

• When fantasy pundits and players talk about the Raiders, the conversation often starts and ends with Darren McFadden. Run DMC didn't show his best form at Atlanta (27-70 rushing, 3-28 receiving, one score, one fumble lost) but at least the volume bailed him out.

But let's not leave town before we examine some of the other fun options here. Denarius Moore looked dynamite against the Falcons (5-104, touchdown) and could be a Top 25 wideout if he can stay healthy. Tight end Brandon Myers is on pace for the quietest 928-yard season you ever did see. And running back Mike Goodson (4-59 rushing, 1-37 receiving) has emerged as the clear No. 2 back; if you view a McFadden injury as an inevitable part of life, Goodson needs to be on your radar (or better yet, on your roster).

• Chan Gailey made Peter King's "Coach of the Week" and Bill Barnwell's "Thank you for not coaching" in the same Sunday. Let's stop and appreciate that. Obviously these are two writers who have different views of the game.

On my clipboard, Gailey is the poor man's Norv Turner. He's still a creative and interesting offensive mind — perhaps to his detriment at times (the Brad Smith pass late in the fourth period Sunday was a horrendous choice). But Gailey seems overmatched when he's the head man for an entire football club. The Peter Principle seems to apply here.

• Shonn Greene's 161-yard, three-touchdown game came out of nowhere, and initially I rolled my eyes when the boiler plate "sell high" recommendations rained down from the Internet. Where does a fantasy owner find someone who's actually willing to put a lofty value on Shonn Freaking Green? Is there truly a sucker born every minute?

That noted for the record, the Week 7 slate might provide the backdrop the Greene owner is looking for. As we discussed last week, it's a monster of a sit-down session — six teams are off, most of them good ones — and the backfield in particular is getting crushed. Consider the running backs who won't be playing next weekend: Shady McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Ryan Mathews, Reggie Bush, Michael Turner and Willis McGahee. That's not a bye week, that's a wildcat strike.

Your homework is clear, Greene owner. See who's shut out from the Week 7 schedule. Maybe someone in your pool is down a bunch of good stuff, including one of the premier backs mentioned above. You're not going to hoodwink any rational owner into thinking that Greene is a star all of a sudden, but this very well may be the best time you'll ever get to sell him. So many fantasy trades are build out of timing and desperation; use those things to your advantage this week.

And even if you sell Greene "moderate" as opposed to some crazy return, you probably did well. Think back to how you valued him a week ago. His next stomach-punch game can't be far away.

• New England's 3-3 record might be a blessing in surprise for fantasy owners. The Patriots will probably need to sing for their supper all through Week 16, so there's no trickiness to account for. I'll be flabbergasted if the Patriots don't wind up winning the division eventually, however. I realize you can say this about a bunch of teams, but New England is maybe three plays away from being 6-0. There's no AFC East club that's close to them on paper, and they should make quick work of the Jets in Week 7.

[Also: The surprising, yet obvious best team in the NFL]

No need to sweat the pass-heavy approach New England took at Seattle, Stevan Ridley owner. Every Patriots game plan is constructed from scratch. Blueprint X has nothing to do with Blueprint Y or Blueprint Z. That's one of the signature moves from this intelligently-run organization.

Mind you, the Patriots did their share of dumb things in Week 6, too. Tom Brady flushed away too many points with red-zone mistakes. Bill Belichick mismanaged the clock at the end of the first half. Nobody's perfect.

The Jets and Patriots are basically a stand-alone Week 7 game — only the Raiders and Jaguars will be playing at the same time unless an early game gets pushed back. Fox is on baseball for the late afternoon. Get your popcorn ready. This is the Hatfield and McCoys of the NFL.

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Tags: , AFC North, , , , , , , Houston Texans The AFC North, , Pro Football Focus, , Shonn Greene,
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Matchups: Matchup: Broncos @ Chargers

15 Oct
2012
by in Fantasy Football, General
Evan Silva previews Monday night's Broncos-Chargers game from a fantasy football perspective.
Tags: , , Evan, , ,
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Confirmed: DeMarco Murray’s foot is sprained

15 Oct
2012
by in General

The MRI images on DeMarco Murray's foot injury are in, and the Dallas running back has avoided a worst-case scenario. Details here from the team's website:

The Cowboys received some positive news regarding running back DeMarco Murray on Monday, learning the injury is nothing more than the initial diagnosis of a foot sprain.

The MRI results showed no broken bones, but some ligament damage that could be enough to sideline Murray for this week's game in Carolina, and possibly longer.

Murray's foot isn't fractured, and it's not, um...Lisfranc'd. So that's a relief.

Still, he's dealing with ligament damage, perhaps significant enough to sideline him for the Panthers game in Week 7. Felix Jones is the obvious add — he gained 92 yards on 18 carries at Baltimore on Sunday — and Phillip Tanner is the stealth/deep-league pickup. The fantasy community has a long and complicated relationship with Felix, so I'm sure you're all aware of his fleas. For a week, I'd be willing to rely on him, assuming Murray can't play. Jones was a mess early in the season, but he looked lively enough against the Ravens. Tanner should see a few touches (7-10?) in a supporting role at Carolina.

For what it's worth, Murray suggested on Sunday that he'd wanted to return in the second half at Baltimore, particularly after Felix checked out with cramps:

"I wanted to, but I have to do what's best for the whole team. It's a long season."

DeMarco reportedly didn't leave the stadium in a walking boot, another decent sign. Let's just hope he can make it back relatively soon, at full strength. Murray is easily the team's best backfield option — we resolved that debate last year — and there are several appealing match-ups remaining on Dallas' schedule, including a Week 16 tilt with New Orleans.

For now, we place our $25-$29 bids on Felix, and we wait. (If you're going $30, he's yours. I'm out. Hell, I don't have $30 left in many leagues anyway). This is a massive and unexpected opportunity for Jones, a free agent in 2013. And when has he ever squandered an opportunity in the NFL? Never. What could possibly go wrong?

Tags: DeMarco, , , , , , foot sprain, , ligament damage, , Phillip Tanner, sideline, , website
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Steven Jackson, Daryl Richardson share the workload for St. Louis

15 Oct
2012
by in General

If you're a Rams fan looking for somebody to blame for your team's Week 6 loss at Miami, don't look to the offensive skill players. For the most part, they were not the problem.

Sam Bradford had a solid day at quarterback, completing two-thirds of his throws, finishing with 315 passing yards and breaking the plane on a rushing score from the 1-yard line (barely). You couldn't possibly have expected more from Bradford, not when you consider the fact that he was without Danny Amendola, his security blanket receiver.

Brandon Gibson was mostly excellent (except for an early bobble), hauling in seven balls for 91 yards, including a ridiculous one-handed snag along the sideline. Tight end Lance Kendricks made a few plays (4-for-40), Chris Givens delivered his usual field-flipping reception (a 65-yarder), and the team's running game was outstanding. Facing the NFL's top-ranked run defense, the Rams piled up 162 rushing yards on 27 attempts (6.0 YPC). The backfield also contributed six catches for 54 yards.

St. Louis actually gained 462 total yards on Sunday -- 270 more than Miami's offense, which is silly -- but they were kneecapped by penalties (12 for 94 yards) and poor special teams play. (That, and rookie corner Janoris Jenkins suffered a narcoleptic event on Marlon Moore's 29-yard TD reception). So it goes. Fantasy owners don't generally care about such things.

[Related: Why Jeff Fisher chose the Rams over Miami]

But the fantasy community certainly does care about the emergence of a backfield committee, and it appears one has formed in St. Louis.

Steven Jackson ran well against the Dolphins, carrying 12 times for 52 yards, adding three catches for 28. He was a monster between the tackles, he delivered punishing stiff-arms, and he had at least one long run negated by penalty. All things considered, it was an impressive effort from a guy who'd battled injuries earlier in the year. Jackson is healthy now, looking like his old productive self.

However, he isn't receiving the same old workload. Daryl Richardson took 11 carries in Week 6, rushing for 76 yards. He also caught two passes for 23. Richardson was basically used in a straight rotation with S-Jax. The game's first carry went to Jackson, the second to Richardson -- and the rookie exploded down the sideline for a 44-yard gain. When Richardson gets the ball outside the numbers, he's a dangerous man, an ideal complementary back for the Rams. He made an appearance when his team was inside-the-5, too.

The job-share arrangement worked so well for St. Louis on Sunday, in fact, that you have to think it will continue in the weeks ahead, as long as both players remain uninjured. This is obviously a nice development for the team, if not so great for Jackson owners. Volume hasn't been a worry with S-Jax since the Faulk years, forever ago.

If I were tied to Jackson in fantasy, I don't think I'd actually shop him today because A) his trade value remains relatively low, and B) he looked great on Sunday. Seriously great. S-Jax clearly is not cooked. But Richardson needs to be owned in many more leagues, and not simply as a handcuff. He's been a revelation, another unexpected find out of Abilene Christian. Richardson is currently available in 88 percent of Yahoo! leagues, worth a claim this week.

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Sunday Scene, Week 6: Dalton-to-Green still paying the fantasy bills

14 Oct
2012
by in General

AJ Green drew a tricky individual match-up on Sunday, spending much of his afternoon covered by Cleveland corner Joe Haden ... and it didn't really matter.

With receivers of Green's caliber, you don't sweat the opponent.

Haden actually had a solid day against Cincinnati on Sunday, with seven tackles and a pick. But he alone couldn't prevent Green from roasting the Browns, as the second-year receiver hauled in seven balls for 135 yards and a pair of scores. The first TD was a four-yarder — linebacker D'Qwell Jackson picked him up in coverage, which was never gonna work — and the second was a 57-yard surgical strike, with Haden trailing (see above).

Entering the week, Green was the top fantasy scorer at his position. He'll exit Week 6 still atop the leader board. Green has visited the end zone at least once in each of his last five games, and he's topped 100 receiving yards in three of four. He's a beast, basically. Green has also boosted the fantasy value of his quarterback in no small way.

Andy Dalton has thrown a dozen touchdown passes over his last five games, six of them caught by AJ. When all the numbers are in the books this week, he'll have his fourth top-10 fantasy finish among QBs this season. Dalton completed 31-of-46 passes for 381 yards in his team's loss to the Browns, with three touchdowns and four turnovers. (There's a game straight from the Jim Everett files). Clearly it wasn't a clinic from Dalton at all times — he's thrown interceptions in every game this year, so you probably weren't expecting a flawless performance. But he has an all-world receiver at his disposal, plus a sketchy defense that consistently forces him to the air. There's a lot to like in this setup, and Dalton has a home match-up on deck with Pittsburgh's aging, scuffling D.

Fantasy owners are facing a brutal bye situation in Week 7, so keep the not-yet-universally-owned Dalton in your plans. Green, obviously, should be on the un-benchable list.

• Turns out it was a big week for various other Green(e)s as well, with Shonn delivering a monster effort against the Colts' miserable run defense. We checked in with Greene at halftime, and he only got better over the final two quarters, finishing with 161 yards on 32 carries. It's fine to call him a sell-high right now, but you'd actually need to find someone who believes that Sunday's effort represents Shonn Greene's true talent level. That won't be easy. He began the day averaging just 2.9 YPC. Still, Green's fantasy stock is definitely trending up, with Bilal Powell suffering a shoulder injury.

The big performance from Greene allowed the Jets to minimize Mark Sanchez's impact, as he attempted just 18 throws, accounting for 82 yards and two scores. New York corner Antonio Cromartie had a mostly excellent day against Reggie Wayne, holding him to almost nothin' while the game was in the balance, although he drew multiple flags. Cro also had a pair of pick-sixes negated by penalty, which you don't see every day (and which absolutely crushed his IDP owners).

Vick Ballard was a dud for Indy, gaining just 25 rushing yards on eight attempts against a defense that had been yielding 4.7 yards per carry. Delone Carter and Mewelde Moore were in the rushing mix, too, though neither fared well. And Coby Fleener should have caught a touchdown, but Andrew Luck just overshot him (possibly ruining my week. We'll see. Like you care).

• The Ravens managed to edge the Cowboys on Sunday, 31-29, but the win was offset by massive personnel losses. Baltimore's defense lost both Ray Lewis (triceps) and Lardarius Webb (knee) to injuries that have season-ending potential. If you hadn't already downgraded the Ravens D from the upper tier, you'll want to do it now. That team allowed a franchise-record 227 rushing yards in Week 6, prompting this reaction from DT Haloti Ngata:

"It's disgusting. We need to fix it right away."

But their problems aren't going away if they're forced to deal with major injuries at every level.

Dallas running back DeMarco Murray is headed for a Monday MRI on his strained foot, after X-rays ruled out a fracture. Murray at least attempted to return in the second half on Sunday, which should give hope to his owners. Both he and Felix Jones topped 90 rushing yards against the Ravens. One these guys, if not both (or maybe Phillip Tanner), will feast on the Carolina run D in Week 7.

Dez Bryant had another very nice fantasy day (13-99-2), marred by a killer drop. Tony Romo put a two-point conversion attempts on Dez's hands, but the ball skipped away. Jason Witten made at least one degree-of-difficulty catch among his six for 88 yards, so he seems to have self-corrected. Also, we should note that the end-game management was awful for Dallas, for the thousandth time in the Jason Garrett era. It's not even a story anymore; it's just expected.

• Perhaps taking advantage of Danny Amendola's absence, Brandon Gibson caught seven balls for 91 yards against Miami. Chris Givens hauled in another long catch (65 yards), finishing with three receptions for 85. Daryl Richardson and Steven Jackson split the backfield touches fairly evenly for the Rams — 13 for D-Rich, 15 for S-Jax — combining for 179 scrimmage yards against the NFL's top-ranked run D.

Ryan Tannehill had a decent enough day in Miami's 17-14 win (185 yards, two TDs), but Brian Hartline was notably absent from the box score. Reggie Bush was a dud, too, rushing for just 17 yards on 12 carries. The 'Phins offense delivered just 192 total yards, yet still pulled out a win, joining what is now a four-way tie atop the AFC East.

• And one of the reasons we have a logjam in the East is that New England dropped a thriller in Seattle, 24-23. The Pats held a 13-point fourth quarter lead, but Russell Wilson tossed a pair of late TD passes, capping off a 293-yard, three-touchdown performance. His game-winning bomb to Sidney Rice was a perfect throw, poorly covered. Wilson hasn't quite been a fantasy machine this season, but check the list of opposing QBs that kid has beaten over his first six NFL games: Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Tom Brady.

Not too shabby.

Brady delivered a big fantasy number in Week 6, but he did it on volume, attempting 58 passes. He finished with 36 completions for 395 yards and two scores, but he was also picked twice. The Pats offense was stuffed late in the fourth quarter, after the Seahawks boldly/crazily punted the ball to New England on fourth-and-3, trailing by six points with 3:20 on the clock. All things considered, it was an impressive effort from Seattle's D, again. Wes Welker hauled in 10 passes for 138 yards and one score, shrugging off at least two big hits. Aaron Hernandez returned from injury, catching six balls for 30 yards, including a first half TD.

• Cardinals kicker Jay Feeley had a ridiculous few minutes in Arizona, nailing a 61-yard(!) missile to tie the Bills late in the fourth quarter, but doinking a 38-yarder in the final seconds of regulation (possibly tipped). The Cards eventually lost in OT, after a Jairus Byrd interception return (his second pick) set up Buffalo deep in Arizona territory. John Skelton was quarterbacking the Cards offense at the time, because starter Kevin Kolb had checked out with a rib/chest injury. (Prior to the pick, Skelton had done nothing to threaten Kolb's job. He finished 2-for-10).

William Powell and LaRod Stephens-Howling split the carries for Arizona, 13 to 11, but the former K-State back outperformed LSH decisively. Powell rushed for 70 yards and caught one pass for eight. For now, he's the Cardinals back to own if you absolutely have to own one. (You don't, but let's just say). Keep in mind that Arizona's end-of-year schedule is awful, and this team's O-line isn't exactly the best group of run-blockers.

• Trent Richardson was sent to the sideline on Sunday with a rib/side injury, leading to an unexpected workload for Montario Hardesty (15 carries, 56 yards, TD). Richardson sounded optimistic following the game...

...but he'll still require a Monday MRI, so his owners can't completely relax.

• Maybe Ahmad Bradshaw didn't single-handedly deliver anyone a fantasy win in Week 6, but he certainly deserves a game-ball after rushing for 116 yards and one TD on 27 carries against the Niners. Bradshaw became just the second opposing rusher to top 100 yards against San Francisco in their last 44 games, which is nuts. Rookie David Wilson had nothing more than a small supporting role for the Giants, carrying seven times for 35 yards.

Alex Smith was a mess on Sunday, tossing three picks, getting sacked four times, posting a rating of 43.1. Antrel Rolle picked off Smith twice, then later said, "I think this is our most complete game all year long." Well, yeah, I suppose it was. A 26-3 result ain't bad.

• Robert Griffin III was unfair on Sunday afternoon, accounting for 182 yards through the air, 138 on the ground, and three touchdowns (one passing, two rushing). If you're involved in a fantasy format that awards bonuses for long TDs, then RG3's late 76-yard rushing score may have clinched your Week 6 win (unless you're facing an Aaron Rodgers and/or Jordy Nelson and/or James Jones led team, in which case you're cooked. Sorry). I'm not ready to rule out the possibility that Griffin will lead the 'Skins in rushing this season. I'm also not ready to back off my concern about the injury risk associated with RG3, but that's an easy issue to dismiss when he puts up 30-something fantasy points for your fake team. The Giants are up next for Griffin, on the road, as he finally gets a taste of division play.

Christian Ponder delivered 300-plus yards against Washington, because ... well, because everyone does it. Ponder was also picked twice and he lost a fumble, so it was hardly a clean box score. Percy Harvin caught 11 balls for 133 yards, which leaves him on-pace for an insane 131. Adrian Peterson was dealing with ankle pain on Sunday, but he still gained 129 yards on 24 touches, including seven catches. He also delivered the perfect game summary for the Vikes: "We've got to turn those 3s into 7s." Blair Walsh kicked four short-range field goals for Minnesota, with three layups in the first quarter (from 20, 27 and 27).

• The Raiders didn't actually get a win in Atlanta coming off the bye, but they did give us a few reasons to believe that their offense won't be a complete wasteland this season. So that's something. Carson Palmer passed for 353 yards on just 33 attempts, connecting with Denarius Moore five times for 104, and Darren McFadden gave us 98 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Keep the faith, DMC owners. Your guy is still healthy, and he has a string of friendly match-ups ahead (JAC, at KC, TB, at BAL, NO).

• Tampa Bay's Mike Williams continued his quietly useful season, catching four passes for 113 yards and one score against Kansas City. Vincent Jackson brought in Josh Freeman's other two touchdown tosses, in the Bucs' 38-10 win over the Fightin' Succops. The best plan for Kansas City might just be to keep losing, thus putting the franchise in the best position to draft its future quarterback. Whoever that guy is, he's not on the current roster.

• Matthew Stafford passed for 311 yards in Detroit's comeback win at Philly, 700 of which seemed to arrive in the final five minutes of regulation. The Lions' win was a season-saver, as they surged back despite trailing by 10 points late in the game. Eagles fans should be accustomed to losing these un-losable games by now. Mikel LeShoure was solid for Detroit, gaining 94 yards on 18 touches. Jahvid Best could return soon, assuming he's sufficiently de-concussed, but LeShoure is still the Lions back I'd want, no doubt.

Jeremy Maclin posted his first big fantasy total since Week 1, catching six passes for 130 yards and one score. Michael Vick matched Stafford's 311 passing yards, plus he gained 59 more on the ground, but turnovers and other negative plays remain an issue (two INTs, three sacks). Vick now has multiple turnovers in five of his six games this season, which helps explain why this seemingly loaded team is stuck at 3-3.

• Apologies for the late delivery on Sunday Scene this week, but I was busy being pummeled by Aaron Rodgers in four leagues, and found it impossible to turn away. Like watching a rogue surgeon remove your kidney, while you're drugged in a tub. At least I started James Jones in every league where there's no money on the line, so, um ... [expletive]. Rough night.

EARLY ADDS FOR WEEK 7

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo (vs. TEN)
QB Brandon Weeden, Cleveland (at IND)
QB Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (vs. NO)
RB Felix Jones, Dallas (at CAR)
RB Daryl Richardson, St. Louis (vs. GB)
RB LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay (vs. NO)
RB Jahvid Best, Detroit (at CHI)
RB William Powell, Arizona (at MIN)
WR Mike Williams, Tampa Bay (vs. NO)
WR Kendall Wright, Tennessee (at BUF)
WR Brandon Gibson, St. Louis (vs. GB)
WR Devery Henderson, New Orleans (at TB)
WR Josh Gordon, Cleveland (at IND)

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