Over/Under: Attempting to solve the Peterson puzzle

24 Aug
2012
by in General

Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're woefully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders.

Adrian Peterson total carries 249.5

Brad — UNDER. Based on his freakishly fast recovery, Peterson could probably rebound from the pneumonic plague in short order. His healing powers are divine. But expect Leslie Frazier to ease him back in, no matter how swimmingly he performs down the summer stretch. And Minny's defense will do him no favors.

Scott — OVER. I still believe in Peterson, even if I have limited logic to back it up. A once-a-generation freak.

Dalton — UNDER. This number seems about right. Only a dozen backs had 250+ carries last season, and he's just eight months removed from serious knee surgery. Even if he doesn't suffer a setback, you'd have to think Peterson's touches will be limited early on.

Andy — Brad didn't originally assign this question to me, but I'm interjecting anyway. In this case, IT. DOES. NOT. MATTER. You draft Peterson for the chance that he'll be at his best at the end of the year, in the fantasy playoffs. If you take him, just prioritize depth at RB. This draft stuff ain't surgery.

Maurice Jones-Drew games missed 2.5

Andy — OVER, but that doesn't mean he'll get 20-plus carries early in the year. I do think this gets resolved, though. Can't see any obvious reason the Jags would deal him, unless it's a Herschel-like offer.

[Related: Five single-season NFL records that could be broken in 2012]

Brad — OVER. MoJo recently expressed optimism about a resolution, but the light at the end of the tunnel has yet to appear. His stubbornness, and Khan's, prevail in this one. Even if he does cave by Week 1, his high odometer reading enhances injury risk.

Scott — UNDER. He'll hear the biological clock ticking. MJD returns before Week 3, and likely sooner.

Matt Ryan passing touchdowns 30.5

Brad — UNDER. His stock is soaring. Everyone seems convinced a 35-40 TD season is near. But remember ATL threw the fourth-most times last year. And Ryan was very efficient (29:12 TD:INT split). He's not Aaron Rodgers people. Expect modest, not monster, gains.

Scott — UNDER. Atlanta's got strong weapons, but the depth isn't a match for Green Bay, New England, or last year's Saints. In other words, Falcons might be slightly overrated. I need to see it first. Ryan just misses 30.

Brandon — OVER. He had 29 last season, but he was blazing a serious trail in the second half of the season (20 TDs to 4 INTs in final 9 games). With a year under Julio Jones' belt, Ryan is easily poised to break the 30-TD barrier.

Andrew Luck passing yards 3,799.5

Scott — The bad defense helps, and Bruce Arians calling the shots, but I still have to go slightly UNDER.

[Related: Fantasy football: Ranking the top 200 players]

Brandon — OVER. It's actually a pretty big number for a rookie, and only 11 QBs topped this mark last season. But the Colts will throw a lot by necessity, and Luck certainly has looked the part of a rare gem in preseason.

Dalton — OVER. Luck is probably the best prospect since Peyton Manning, and he's done nothing to disprove that in the preseason. The Colts should have to fling it a lot while hampered by a bad defense, and Luck is the real deal.

Antonio Gates final per game points average in standard formats 9.9

Dalton — OVER. All reports this summer have been overwhelmingly positive in regards to Gates' health, as he claims his feet feel better than they have in years. I'm buying. With Vincent Jackson gone and question marks in the backfield, Gates should see a ton of targets. The AFC West should feature a bunch of shootouts too.

Andy — OVER. He's done it four times in his career, including two of the last three years, while playing on peg-legs. This offseason seems to have treated him well.

Brad — OVER. Without question, the Bolt is the best TE value in Fantasyland. His bunions are no longer barking. And with Vincent Brown out of the equation for at least the next eight weeks, he should be the object of Philip Rivers' affection. Double-down on double-digits.

Brandon Lloyd receptions 70.5

Brandon — UNDER. Lots of mouths to feed in New England. I'm not sure he can quite reach this number with all the other weapons around him, but I think he'll be close, and many will be high-quality catches. Much respect, Gumby.

[Related: Russell Wilson makes case to be starter with spectacular performance against Chiefs]

Dalton — OVER. Lloyd could easily score double-digit touchdowns while still finishing under this number, as he projects to be more of a big play/red-zone threat than a big volume guy. Still, even with plenty of mouths to feed, this passing attack will be formidable.

Andy — I'll take the UNDER, but not by a lot. And anyway, it's not about catches with this player. He gets no special PPR bump. He's a yards-per-catch specialist, a guy who should find the end zone.

Fred Jackson total touches 264.5

Andy — OVER. Not by a lot, but I think he'll get there in a healthy season. This doesn't mean that CJ Spiller can't still help you, in a flex sort of way.

Scott — I think he's one of the most underrated backs on the board right now. Love the Chan Gailey offense, too. OVER, and go get him.

Brad — OVER. Once overvalued, he's now undervalued. Spiller has done everything in his power this preseason to tilt the timeshare to Jackson's side. Laugh all the way to the bank in Round 3 (24.2 ADP, RB14).

Peyton Hillis total touchdowns 9.5

Scott — Brian Daboll will feed him plenty, and Hillis goes OVER. Nice pick, Behrens.

Brandon — OVER. He'll be the goal line guy in a run-heavy offense, and one that is capable of being decent if the other elements can stay healthy (Cassel, Charles, Moeaki) and out of the doghouse (Bowe, Baldwin). I'll go with 10, on the nose, for Hillis.

Dalton — UNDER. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Hillis surpassed this number, but it's tough to project any back with double-digit touchdowns, let alone one who's likely to finish with the second most touches on his own team.

DeSean Jackson receiving yards 1,049.5

Brandon — UNDER. I put D-Jax somewhere between 950-1050, but he can elevate his game with the deep ball, reverses and the occasional ridiculous punt return TD, so it's not an indictment here that I don't think he'll quite reach this peak.

Dalton — OVER. He beat this number both in 2009 and 2010 before last year's disaster, although even then he was on pace to finish with 1,025 yards had he not missed a game. Jackson is seemingly refocused now after having his contract situation taken care of.

[Related: Ryan Tannehill struggles in first game since being named Dolphins' starter]

Andy — OVER. Possibly way over. He's topped 900 receiving yards every year of his career, even when he disappointed everyone.

Mike Wallace final fantasy rank among WRs 19.5 (In other words, will he finish inside or outside the WR top-20?)

Dalton — UNDER. Tough one. There's legitimate concern how Wallace will perform coming off a holdout and joining an entirely new offense, but at the same time I'm not overly worried about his drop off over last year's second half. I'll say he finishes inside the top-20, but just barely.

Andy — UNDER, by which I mean he'll rank inside the top-20. Wallace is, by far, the Steelers most dangerous offensive weapon. Brown is good; Wallace is exceptional.

Brad — OVER. Don't underestimate the impact of Wallace's long layoff. Unless he possesses a MENSA mind, it will take time for him to fully grasp Todd Haley's offense. Brown is the more complete and trustworthy Steelers receiver.

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

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The Fantasy Freak Show Podcast: Wilson for Prez, Martin magic and Benson bashing

24 Aug
2012
by in General

Week 3 of the preseason is the universally known as the "dress rehearsal." For coaches tweaking schemes and evaluating first-teamers' performance, starters typically play upwards of three quarters, a true taste of meaningful football.

On this week's engrossing episode, Brad Evans and Brandon Funston gave instant reaction to Fright night's exhibition games. Additional takes on Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Cedric Benson, Michael Vick, Miles Austin and Justin Blackmon were also discussed. And is Antonio Gates overrated or underrated? We unveiled out answers. Finally, our gurus lent insight into Doug Martin. Is the Bucs rusher top-15 material?

Too busy burning your Lance Armstrong memorabilia? No sweat. Listen to the replays below or download the show on iTunes, once live, here:

LISTEN TO HOUR 1 HERE (NFL)

LISTEN TO HOUR 2 HERE (NFL)


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Goal Line Stand: Silva’s Updated Top 150

24 Aug
2012
by in Fantasy Football, General
Evan Silva unveils his latest Top 150 fantasy football players as the third week of preseason is now underway.
Tags: , , fantasy football players, , goal, , Silva, underway, Updated
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Spin Doctors: Matthew Stafford vs. Cam Newton

23 Aug
2012
by in General

Once the big three — Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees — are crossed off your cheat-sheet, owners seeking a QB will be faced with a tough decision: Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton? In this episode of The Docs, Brad Evans and Dalton Del Don decide which passer has the best odds of leading you to the winner's circle. Read. Ponder. React.

The Noise drives the Stafford love-train — There is little chance at their stages on the career arc Stafford and Newton will suddenly fall off into an abyss. The former No. 1 picks are young, insanely talented and the centerpieces of their respective offenses.

However, for the sake of this exercise, the Lion is the king of the jungle.

Detroit's domed environment and team structure is engineered perfectly for Stafford. He has the league's deadliest vertical weapon, Calvin Johnson, and a bevy of other above average targets, including buzzy Titus Young, Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew. Without Jahvid Best potentially for the first several weeks of the regular season and due to Mike Leshoure's inability to stave off injury and his affinity for the wacky tobacky, the ground game remains in flux. Kevin Smith is suitable, but without a consistent, ultra-reliable rushing attack, Jim Schwartz will again lean on Stafford's arm. Detroit's suspect secondary, one of the NFL's worst last year, also lends credence to another 600-plus passing attempts. And don't play the "fragile" card. He emerged from 2011 unscathed. His shoulder problems are in the past.

Overall, it's clear the Lions will be a pass-first, pass-often club this year. Severe regression isn't likely for Stafford. Assuming his YPA hovers around 7.5 again this season, he should come close to matching the historic production he notched in 2011. Recall his 5,016 passing (41 TDs) yards was the fifth-most prolific passing season in NFL history. You're stealing him in Round 2 (12.4 ADP, QB4).

Newton was absolutely fabulous in his rookie season. His draws at the goal-line were unstoppable, even when defenses knew it was coming. Of course, it's probable he won't replicate the 14 ground scores achieved a season ago, but his value won't fall off the cliff. Still, Stafford's arsenal, pocket polish and pass-happy system give him the slight edge.

After the turn, hand the keys to the Motor City's newest madman.

3D shouts "Wham, bam, thank you Cam!" — In most leagues, the numbers Newton put up last season in fantasy terms were equivalent to 5,571 passing yards with 42 TD passes. It's fair to expect his 14 rushing touchdowns to regress, but he's 6-5, 245 and had 12 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line last year, which is the same amount as Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch and twice as many as Steven Jackson. Newton converted eight of those carries for scores, making him the NFL's best goal-line runner last year. It's always possible the Panthers change philosophies and certainly have the backfield to compensate, but nine of Newton's rushing TDs came from six yards or fewer and 13 came from 16 yards or fewer, so last year's performance doesn't exactly scream fluke.

After averaging 299.1 passing yards over the first eight games, Newton got just 207.3 over the second half of the year. While defenses made adjustments, it's still incredibly impressive that such a raw rookie coming from a very un-pro system in college with a short training camp got 7.8 YPA during his first year as a pro. Historically, the biggest improvement in quarterbacks happens from year one to year two, which should only be magnified with a full offseason this time around.

I like Matthew Stafford and think he'll improve his efficiency stats this season, but it has to be noted he attempted 663 passes last year - third most in NFL history. That simply can't be counted on happening again, and let's not totally disregard the fact Stafford missed 19 games over his first two years in the league before staying healthy for the first time ever last season.

In a division featuring Atlanta, New Orleans and Tampa Bay, Carolina should be in a ton of shootouts, and the Panthers' bad defense is actually a good thing for Newton's fantasy owners. Newton is a special talent who just broke NFL records during his first year in the league, and especially because of his rushing ability, he has the upside to finish as the No. 1 overall fantasy player in 2012.

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

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Closing Time: The unstoppable Kris Medlen

23 Aug
2012
by in General

Remember when the Braves were trying to trade for Ryan Dempster? Ah, why bother? The answer was in their backyard all along: Kris Medlen. The bandwagon isn't completely full yet, so grab your stuff and hop on board.

The unheralded right-hander won his third straight start on Wednesday, rolling past the Nats (7 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K). Obviously Medlen has been pitching over his head during this five-game run, but when you collect 29 strikeouts against five walks, you're setting yourself up for success. Medlen also has an elite ground-ball rate (over 52 percent), and that's the sort of thing that keeps you out of trouble. The relief-pitching eligibility tag is a feather's in Medlen's cap, and he looks fresh after spending most of the year in the bullpen.

Why is he only owned in 54 percent of Yahoo! leagues? Blame it on football fever, I suppose. Club Med's next start lines up for Petco Park, so enjoy that one. Don't worry about the gridlock in the Atlanta rotation; the team isn't going to push this guy out of the way.

• While the Mets haven't offered Matt Harvey a lot of help — he's just 2-3 over his six starts — he's turned into a nifty surprise in New York this summer. The Rockies took a bunch of awkward swings during Wednesday's match, but Harvey (6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 K) had to settle for a no-decision. He's been a little wild over his 36 MLB innings (15 free passes), but we'll gladly look past that given that he's also collected 43 strikeouts.

Harvey works at Philadelphia next week, an assignment that no longer scares anyone. Let's push that ownership tag past 35 percent.

• Who is Tommy Layne and why is he stealing save chances from Dale Thayer in San Diego? Glad you asked. Layne is a journeyman left-hander who finally cracked The Show this month after six seasons in the bush leagues. His 77.2 innings in the minors this year haven't amounted to much: 6.37 ERA, 1.66 WHIP. That zesty strikeout rate (8.0/9) doesn't matter that much when you're walking 4.6 per segment.

Layne been untouchable as a specialist in the San Diego bullpen (4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K) and maybe there's some long-term role as a matchup play, but it's doubtful he'll get any handshake traction here. He faced two lefties out of three on Wednesday (Pedro Alvarez, Garrett Jones), and Thayer was ready in the pen if any mishaps occurred. Write it off as a rogue save and move along.

• We've had a blast with the Todd Frazier story in the second half (.316-22-9-26-2), and his ownership has finally chased up to 60 percent. But is Dusty Baker going to ruin the story?

Baker says that Frazier will go back to the bench when Joey Votto returns; that's Baker's way of saying he wants Scott Rolen to be his primary third basemen. But take heart in two things if you're a Frazier owner: Votto's rehab has been proceeding at a snail's pace, and Rolen's one of the more injury-prone players in the majors. I'm not going to make Frazier a knee-jerk drop even when Votto returns; let's give things a few days to play out.

Frazier also has a bunch of defensive versatility, if Baker wants to get creative with the lineup card. Context clues point to Baker eschewing this strategy — he's no Joe Maddon — but you never say never. I'm cautiously optimistic something is going to work out for Frazier, somehow, someway. If you think I'm all wet with that stance, let's hear your counter-argument, below.

Okay, I'm late for a football draft, too: the Yahoo! Friends & Family bloodbath is today. I'll try to tweet about it where I can, and I'll add more baseball news and notes as the day allows. Anything you want to see discussed, mention it in the comments; I'll see what I can do.

Brandon Funston talks football and baseball in the Yahoo! Fantasy Minute

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Juggernaut Index No. 12: The Baltimore Ravens

22 Aug
2012
by in General

Before we begin, here's a semi-interesting related note: The Ravens may only rank No. 12 in this series, but it turns out this team's home city rates much, much higher in a more important fantasy index. Yahoo! researchers have determined, using both internal and publicly available market data, that Baltimore is the NFL market with the greatest concentration of fantasy players per capita. I'm not even making this up. (Don't ask me for additional details. I'm not the Research Dept. There's gonna be a press release). Apparently, one in 31 people in Baltimore are playing fantasy football — and for that, we thank you. You're helping in the effort to keep Brad Evans off the streets, a huge win for us all.

Now let's get to the team preview...

If you want to take Ray Rice first overall in your draft, whether you play standard or PPR settings, I'm not gonna argue.

Rice has topped 2,000 scrimmage yards in two of the past three seasons, he led his team in receptions last year (76), and he found the end zone 15 times. He was the top overall fantasy scorer at his position in 2011, finishing third in per-game scoring. Rice is just 25 years old and he doesn't miss games, so you can't be unusually worried about a breakdown. Now that he's dominating the carries when Baltimore ventures into the red zone, there are really no holes in his game. He's an almost perfect fantasy weapon, no matter your league settings. This guy is a building block.

In fact, if Rice isn't selected in the first half of the first round of your draft, then you probably need to find a more competitive league. I've really got nothing bad to say about Ray Rice — and this doesn't happen with many players, so I hope he's appreciative.

Third-round rookie Bernard Pierce figures to be Rice's handcuff, if you're into that sort of thing. Based on his college clips, Pierce definitely looks the part of a feature back — here, judge for yourself. He hasn't really generated much off-season buzz, however, as he's dealt with hamstring issues. Pierce gained 1,481 yards on 273 carries for Temple last season (5.4 YPC), breaking the plane 27 times. But he only caught three passes all year (19 in his collegiate career), so there's little reason to believe he could be a full-workload replacement for Rice. It would have to be a deep, deep league before I'd take this 'cuff. Undrafted rookie Bobby Rainey looks like the No. 3 back at the moment.

Joe Flacco established a new career-high in pass attempts last season by a mile (542) yet he didn't reach a personal best in any other major stat. So that's not great. He actually completed a career low 57.6 percent of his throws at just 6.7 yards per attempt, while posting the lowest TD total (20) since his rookie season. This year, we'll see more no-huddle/hurry-up offense from Baltimore, placing new responsibilities on the quarterback. Flacco could perhaps make a leap in fantasy value, but keep in mind that he finished nowhere near the leaders at his position last season. He ranked just 17th at his position in public league scoring in 2011, more than 60 points behind the guy who finished ninth (Rivers). Thus, he's not getting drafted in every league and his ADP (138.9) places him beyond guys like Palmer, Dalton and Freeman. I haven't yet selected him anywhere, so I'm in no position to argue on his behalf.

(Would we all think differently of Flacco if Lee Evans could have just held onto this exceptional throw? Yeah, maybe we would. That's hardly fair, but there it is).

Receiver Torrey Smith is certainly a player of interest entering his second season. He was a terrific vertical threat as a rookie — Rams defensive backs are still having nightmares — and, if his head coach can be believed, he's going to be a monster in 2012. This from the Carroll County Times:

"He's the most efficient improver, if that's a word, I've ever seen," [John] Harbaugh said. "He gets the most out of every day and that's why I think he's going to be a great player."

Harbaugh added, "[Smith's] route-running's improved. He's improved his hands. He's improved with understanding the blitz package, when he's hot and when he's not. He's improved down-field with his blocking. Really, everything has gotten better."

Smith had been sidelined briefly in camp with an ankle injury, but he's back on the field, ready to break out. Smith is drafted as only a fringe third receiver in fantasy (ADP 74.7, WR30), but he could easily outperform his price tag. Flacco has enough arm to reach Smith, no matter how deep he runs.

Anquan Boldin is typically drafted 20-25 picks later than Smith, where you'll find all the other receivers who are likely to post 65-840-5 fantasy lines. He'll presumably work the middle of the field for the Ravens, with Smith and new arrival Jacoby Jones on the outside. Jones has proven himself to be something of a big-play specialist, a guy who can deliver an annual highlight, yet isn't a recommended weekly play. Depth chart wideout LaQuan Williams generated some low-level OTA buzz, but so do lots of players who disappear in September. Williams isn't on the radar in leagues of standard size; this offense can only support so many ownable pass-catchers.

Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta each have receiving talent, and their combined numbers last season (94-933-8) could have really helped fantasy owners had they been delivered by a single tight end. But at such a loaded position, neither Dickson nor Pitta needs to be drafted in 12-team leagues. You'll use 'em as bye-week coverage, but it's tough to project either as a consistent starter. Plus both of them are recovering from slight dings, so we cannot grade them in gem-mint condition right now.

The Baltimore defense was dealt a significant blow during the offseason, when Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs suffered an Achilles injury. Suggs may return late in the year if all goes well, but you can't expect him to be the same difference-maker that we're used to seeing, at least not right away. The Ravens' D will feel the loss of linebacker Jarrett Johnson, too, as he signed with San Diego back in March. Still, Ray Lewis mans the middle (slower than he used to, but he's there) with Bernard Pollard and Ed Reed at safety, and Haloti Ngata anchoring the line. This remains a draft-worthy defense, a group that ranked third in the NFL in both points and yards allowed last season (16.6, 288.9). They're no longer the first D off the board in fantasy drafts, but they won't be the last, either.

2011 team stats: 23.6 PPG (NFL rank 12), 124.8 rush YPG (10), 226.8 pass YPG (19), 31.20 yards/drive (14), 0.122 turnovers/drive (15)

Previous Juggernaut posts: 32. Miami, 31. St. Louis, 30. Indianapolis, 29. Jacksonville, 28. Cleveland, 27. Arizona, 26. Seattle, 25. Minnesota, 24. Tampa Bay, 23. Buffalo, 22. New York Jets, 21. Washington, 20. Oakland, 19. San Francisco, 18. Kansas City, 17. Cincinnati, 16. Denver, 15. Tennessee, 14. San Diego, 13. Pittsburgh

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Maurice Jones-Drew: ‘Things will work out’ – Maurice Jones-Drew | JAC

22 Aug
2012
by in Fantasy Football, General
Maurice Jones-Drew told NFL.com that he's confident "things are going to work out" in regards to his training-camp holdout and recommended fantasy owners draft him with the No. 1 overall pick.
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Spin Doctors: After the top-three RBs, CJ2K or McFadden?

22 Aug
2012
by in General

The vast majority of drafts where passing touchdowns aren't moronically weighted the same as rushing/receiving scores, the top three picks will almost certainly be some order of the following: Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy. However, after that mark, uncertainties galore populate the running position. Risk-reward is unavoidable. In this episode of Fantasy Hospital, dashing docs Dalton Del Don and Brad Evans offer their opinions on which back, Chris Johnson or Darren McFadden, should be next in the RB hierarchy. Read. Consume. React.

3-D foresees a major rebound for CJ2K: There's no question Johnson was one of the biggest disappointments last season, when he scored just four touchdowns after totaling 28 over the previous two years. His 2.1 YPC after contact tied for 58th among running backs. Still, he managed to total 1,463 yards from scrimmage, and him showing up out of shape after holding out before the season was likely the reason behind his down year; over the first seven games, Johnson got 2.8 YPC while over the final nine contests he got 4.8. Moreover, the big drop in touchdowns was mostly not his fault, as he was given just six goal-line carries. Johnson converted half of those for scores, and it's safe to expect the opportunities to normalize in 2012, as he was given 31 GL attempts over the previous two years.

The Titans don't have a great offensive line, but they added Steve Hutchinson this offseason, and a young offense with some intriguing playmakers will be moving to a version of the run-and-shoot, which should lead to plenty of open running lanes. While the preseason matters little in most cases, Johnson had two 14-yard touchdown runs last week and impressed while doing so. He looked much more like his previous explosive self rather than last year's version, an encouraging sign after Johnson participated in the team's offseason program for the first time since his 2,006-yard campaign.

Johnson hasn't missed a single game due to injury throughout his NFL career, whereas McFadden has never played more than 13 games during any of his four seasons in the league, averaging 4.8 DNPs each year. Johnson is still just 26 years and motivated after a down year, so the pick here is the back who's accrued more yards over his first four seasons in the league than any RB in NFL history.

The Noise prays to the fantasy gods Run DMC plays 16 games: To the trepidatious drafter, this is a Dominique Wilkins windmill slam-dunk win for Johnson. Card-carrying members of Team Huevos, however, know better.

In this risk-reward debate, McFadden is the proper selection. He's incredibly explosive, powerful, versatile and the featured weapon on a largely conservative offense. When healthy, he's achieved super elite status before. Two seasons ago his 17.4 per game mark ranked second only to behemoth Arian Foster. Equally impressive, he's averaged a stout 5.3 yards per carry since 2010.

Many pundits have praised Carson Palmer this summer, but the Raiders are built to run. The offensive line, one of the AFC's best, can move mountains. And new head honcho, Dennis Allen, is a gritty, defensive-minded coach who will emphasis ball control and clock management — great news for DMC.

In an era where volume high-volume rushers are an endangered species, McFadden is a rare workhorse. He will be deployed early and often this season, including at the goal-line, an area where Michael Bush often poached. It would be no surprise if he logged 325 total touches, 1,700 total yards and 12-15 TDs. Despite his injury history, Allen refuses to "baby" him, recently implying the offense will run through No. 20.

And that's the difference.

In terms of talent, Johnson is every bit McFadden's equal. Bulked up and motivated, he should repair an image tarnished by last year's humiliating downturn. However, he won't be the centerpiece of the Titans' offense. Offensive Coordinator Chris Palmer has installed a Run 'n Shoot-styled system, a scheme that will look skyward often. Indications suggest Johnson may only garner 15-18 total touches per game. Tennessee's O-line has shown improvement in exhibition play, but it's not parting seas like Oakland, especially if Jake Locker proves ineffective. Stacked boxes could become common.

Yes, the delicate DMC would probably suffer a mortal wound from a NERF gun, but he has strong odds of leaving investors in the black.

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

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Spin Doctors: The fourth pick is where the fun begins. Who ya got, Rodgers or Megatron?

22 Aug
2012
by in General

If you're fortunate enough to land a top-three pick in your draft, you can fly through the first round on auto-pilot. No thinking required. In most leagues — at least those with traditional scoring systems — the top three selections are going to be Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy, typically in that order. But when the clock starts ticking on the fourth pick, someone in your draft room will actually have to do some work. Reasonable people can disagree on the proper choice at No. 4 — and so can unreasonable people, like the Yahoo! fantasy team. Today, Scott Pianowski and Andy Behrens will present arguments on behalf of their preferred pick from the clean-up spot. Readers will then settle the debate in comments (probably with a third name). Let's play the feud...

Scott does the Discount Double-Check: The two players we're discussing in this exercise are elite, we can all agree on that. Both have MVP upside and explosive ceilings. Just make sure you ask yourself the key question before you commit to an answer at the four-spot: Who's got the highest floor, the safest set of draft specs?

The answer is Aaron Rodgers.

The NFL has all but legislated quarterback hits out of the game, so we don't have to worry about most QBs getting injured. And when Rodgers is on the field, you're getting a dreamy set of stats. If you rank all the quarterbacks in basic-league scoring the last four years, Rodgers grades this way: First, second, first, third. And he's holding his own in the overall ranks, finishing first, 16th, third and seventh. He's been here before. Conversely, Megatron never finished top-10 overall before last year.

You shouldn't need any selling on Rodgers' fantasy setup, which might be the best in the NFL. The Packers have a loaded receiving group (Jennings, Nelson, Finley, Jones, Cobb, you know the names) and a bunch of forgettable backs (which pushes Rodgers into some goal-line work). Mike McCarthy is a brilliant offensive designer, and just for fun Rodgers runs for 200-360 yards per season. Perfection.

Those who wait on a fantasy quarterback can still do well — there's plenty of quality in the 11-20 range. But unless you find another Cam Newton lottery ticket in the haystack (not likely), you're spotting a big lead to those who get first-tier signal callers. Go Green, amigos. As much as I hate to force Rodgers to wear No. 4, he deserves this slot.

Behrens makes the case for Megatron: Not only did Calvin Johnson lead all receivers in fantasy scoring last season, but he crushed the field. Megatron finished 46.9 points ahead of the second-best fantasy wideout, the largest gap at any position in 2011.

Does anyone seriously doubt that his stats are repeatable? No, of course you don't. Good luck finding a fantasy expert who thinks any other receiver deserves top-billing. Every Yahoo! analyst agrees on Johnson's value relative to the WR field.

While I understand the argument for picking Rodgers at No. 4, I could also build compelling cases for Darren McFadden, Drew Brees, Chris Johnson and Tom Brady. There's no other wideout who belongs in this discussion — in fact, I don't think another receiver belongs in the first round. Statistically speaking, the difference between Johnson and this year's No. 2 wide receiver, whoever that guy might be, is probably going to be enormous again.

Calvin is tied to a team that averaged 29.6 points per game last season and a QB who threw for 5,038 yards. His setup is ideal, his skill-set is unrivaled. The dude is 6-foot-5 and possesses superhero-level athleticism, making him essentially uncoverable. He's dominant in jump-ball situations, one of the best red-zone threats in the league. How surprised would you really be if Johnson were to break a few all-time single-season receiving records in the year ahead? Not very, I'd wager.

Again, I like Rodgers — I really do. But I also like the quarterbacks who will be available to me in Rounds 2 and 3 if I'm picking fourth overall. In my eyes, there's simply not another receiver who compares to 'Tron. He's in a one-man tier.

Tags: , Andy Behrens, answer, , Megatron, , , , Scott Pianowski, Set,
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Football Daily Dose: Snap Distribution and You

22 Aug
2012
by in Fantasy Football, General
Mike Clay applies snap and target distribution data to fantasy football.
Tags: , Distribution, , , ,
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