Stream Police: Chris Archer’s Army

18 Sep
2012
by in General

Starting pitchers in daily roto are like cell phones on The Wire. Use them up, chuck them out. Reduce, reuse, recycle.

Here's a look at the Wednesday slate.

Top notch, top notch
 Phil Hughes vs. TOR
Chris Archer vs. BOS

It's surprising to see Archer available in 95 percent of Yahoo! leagues, as he offers several selling points. His strikeout clip jumps off the page, and he fanned 11 Rangers in his last spot turn. The catwalk will hide some mistakes, the Boston lineup isn't scaring anyone this late in the year, and Boston's opposing pitcher is Daisuke Matsuzaka. What else do you need to see? Make the add. … It's easy to put Hughes in the Circle of Trust, as four of his last five turns have been useful (heck, even the bad start had six strikeouts attached to it).

Better Than a Fresca
 Lance Lynn vs. HOU
Marco Estrada at PIT

Lynn returned to the rotation in style, working six strong innings at Chavez Ravine (5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K). You wonder how deep he might go in this game given the recent bullpen work, and he is up against Houston's best starter, but nonetheless the Cardinals are heavy favorites here.

World Needs Ditchdiggers, Too
 John Lannan vs. LAD
Lucas Harrell at STL
Trevor Cahill vs. SD
Edinson Volquez at ARI
Kyle McPherson vs. MIL
Mike Leake at CHC

It's a shame Cahill and Volquez can't pitch this game where they'd like to: in San Diego. Cahill hasn't been comfortable in Arizona all year (5.10/1.49, nine homers, 5-7 record), and Volquez is even more of a horror show in his road starts (5.57/1.67, 49 walks against 70 punchouts). … McPherson has pretty relief numbers, but in a starting gig it's a complete crap shoot. … Lannan is a pitch-to-contact story (and that ugly K/BB rate worries you), but a 2.41 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through three starts (all wins) earns some cred. He's up against Josh Beckett, a favorable draw.

Tremendous Slouches
 Joe Saunders at SEA
Liam Hendricks at CLE
Henderson Alvarez at NYY
Daisuke Matsuzaka at TB
Zach McAllister vs. MIN

Saunders has been his usual mediocre self through four Baltimore starts (4.30/1.43, 14 strikeouts, eight walks). With all due respect to the power of Safeco, I'd prefer to wait for better spots, especially given Felix Hernandez on the other side.

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Closing Time: Mark Reynolds gets ridiculous

07 Sep
2012
by in General

For years I've been expecting low returns from most Orioles. For a while, I've done just fine fading any Mark Reynolds buzz.

Looks like this is the year I give back those gains. Must be the old-school logo.

Baltimore has forged a tie in the AL East standings, level with the Yankees, and the insanely-hot Reynolds is a big reason why. He's clouted eight homers over his last 26 at-bats, including a pair of taters in Thursday's victory. He's up to 20 homers for the year, with 12 of them coming over the last 30 days.

Hot and cold streaks definitely exist for baseball players, it's just difficult (actually, impossible) to know when they'll start and when they'll stop. Consider the monthly batting averages for Reynolds this year: .143, .306., .218, .207, .275, and .409 (in six games) for September. There's no pattern here.

Better plate discipline could be playing into the recent spike; Reynolds walked twice as much in August as he did in July, and he's already collected four free passes this month. But sometimes that sort of thing ties to production; when you're in a rut, pitchers might feel more comfortable attacking you with strikes and making sure they don't give anything away. You can be sure the Yankees will be very careful with how they handle Reynolds the rest of the weekend.

If nothing else, perhaps Reynolds helps us identify the "dead zone" as we swim through the final month of baseball. He's still unowned in 45 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Maybe some owners are so disengaged at this point, nothing will get them to the point and click. That said, about 4,300 players did grab Reynolds over the last 12 hours.

Obviously the readers here aren't in that crew (I know you're quick, quicker, and quickest), so let's look at some more subtle and actionable roto stuff.

• The Stream Police, they live inside of my head. Well, something like that.

There's been plenty of Hisashi Iwakuma (39 percent) pub in this column of late, but he's still widely available and ready to go. His last month stacks up nicely: four wins, 1.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 26 Ks in 33 IP. Go ahead and dial him up against Oakland, buoyed by the Safeco backdrop.

I'm surprised Bronson Arroyo trades at a modest 33 percent; even at this time of the year, that's too low given what's behind (2.62/0.90 last month) and ahead (a home start against Houston). He's also a nifty guitarist in a pinch.

Ross Detwiler (39 percent) generally doesn't work deep into games, though he's still found a way to win five of his 10 second-half starts. He's still just 26 and a former first-round pick; I like the sneaky pedigree that's at play here. And any home start against Miami sounds good, given how the Marlins have flagged the season.

(Initially I had some J.A. Happ words in this space, but he's out for the year with a broken foot; the news moved Friday afternoon. So it goes. Dave Stieb might be the only Toronto player still healthy.)

Red-light names to avoid: James McDonald (it's time to drop him, gamers), C.J. Wilson (at Detroit? no way), and both sides of the Westbrook-Fiers matchup. I also expect the Yanks to post a crooked number against Joe Saunders, like the rest of the free world.

• Time for some overdue words on Oakland's Josh Donaldson, who's one of the most glorious of roto finds: a catcher-eligible player who really isn't catcher. The Athletics use Donaldson as the primary third baseman (though he also fills the catcher spot), and he's actuality the top-rated Yahoo! backstop over the last month (.316-9-5-15-2). Brandon Inge is done for the year, so there's nothing blocking Donaldson from playing time. He's good to go in 87 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

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Football Daily Dose: Ogling Ogletree

06 Sep
2012
by in Fantasy Football, General
Patrick Daugherty talks the first great roto sensation of 2012 while breaking down last night's opener in Thursday's Dose.
Tags: , , , Ogling, , Patrick Daugherty, , sensation,
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Opening Time: Working the Week 22 Schedule

01 Sep
2012
by in General

Working the schedule is always a major part of roto success, and it might even be more important down the stretch. Let's examine the period from Monday-Sunday (that's 9/3 to 9/9) and underscore some important things for Week 22.

• You always want to know what extreme parks are in play. The Rockies, sadly, are on the road for all seven of their games (four in Atlanta, three in Philly), and the same goes for Texas (four in KC, three in Tampa). We'll miss you, Colorado and Arlington. The Rangers have six home games the following week.

On the cushy side, Seattle has six home games, three with Boston and three with Oakland (home-friendly Jason Vargas becomes a two-start streamer). The A's get six games of pitcher-friendly goodness, as they also host the Angels for three (does Travis Blackley interest you in a deeper league?). The Padres are in LA for three games, then host the Diamondbacks on the weekend (this puts Andrew Werner in the deep-league discussion). Good pitching work if you can get it.

• A seven-game week is a big thing in the world of weekly moves. Here are the clubs going the distance: Washington (hosting the Cubs and Marlins, good draw), the Yankees (at Tampa, at Baltimore), Milwaukee (at Miami, at St. Louis), Miami, Kansas City, the Cubs (all on the road), Baltimore, Atlanta and the earlier-mentioned Rockies and Rangers. The other 20 clubs are set for six games.

• The handedness of opponents can be a good tie-breaker, especially when there's an extreme bias on the way for the next week. The Brewers and Cardinals won't face a lefty starter next week, at least how things stand on paper. Meanwhile, the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Pirates and Mariners will see four lefties.

• Picking on a weak opponent is always a preferred roto assignment, and any team (or pitcher) looks pretty good against the Astros. Here are the current probables against Houston this week: Jeff Locke, Wandy Rodriguez, Kevin Correia (probable), Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto. Make your streaming plans in advance.

• It's hard to be excited about the Cubs for anything in 2012, but they might be in line for some stolen bases this week. Chicago draws Washington and Pittsburgh for Week 22, the two biggest base-running gifts in the game right now. The Nats have only thrown out 3-for-48 base stealers in the second half, a shade in front of the Bucs (5-for-50). Other clubs having trouble shutting down the running game: Minnesota (but your hair looks really great), Cleveland, Texas, San Diego, Houston and the White Sox.

In other roto happenings:

• Ronald Belisario and Brandon League continue to pile up outs in the Los Angeles bullpen, making things tricky for fantasy owners. Belisario picked up a five-out save on Wednesday and backed it up with two scoreless innings Friday, though he worked around three base runners in that appearance. League has been even sharper, recording a save Saturday and stringing together seven straight scoreless appearances (7 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 10 K). It looks like Don Mattingly is making good on his statement that both pitchers will see late-inning work and save chances. Belisario likely needed a day off after Friday's two innings, and League might be in line for a rest after working three straight games, so it remains a fluid situation — and both pitchers might actually hold fantasy value, depending on your format.

• Bud Black says the Padres will go to a six-man rotation for the final month, with Andrew Cashner joining the mix at some point in the coming week. Cashner has a big arm and a lofty upside for future seasons, but he's also coming off a lat injury and hasn't pitched since early July. I'm not going to expect a deep outing from his first appearance.

The Yahoo! Fantasy Minute, featuring Brandon Funston

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Closing Time: Nate McLouth, back from the dead

29 Aug
2012
by in General

The 2012 Orioles are one of those wonderful sporting stories that doesn't make sense. A minus-39 run differential (which ranks 11th in the American League) shouldn't add up to a 71-57 record. Baltimore's been incredible in one-run games, a stunning 24-6. Here's one club where the sum is strangely greater than the collection of parts.

With that all in mind, Nate McLouth's rejuvenation almost makes sense. He's a surprise package on a team of overachievers.

McLouth was a handy roto producer at the end of the '00s, a player we used to feel good about. He collected 13 homers and 22 steals back in 2007, as a part-time Pirate, then exploded with a 2008 breakthrough (.276-113-26-94-23). McLouth was one of the championship-key players in roto that year, and he even won a much-disputed Gold Glove. Groovy times in Pittsburgh.

And almost overnight, the wave broke. McLouth was dealt to the Braves in the middle of 2009 and slumped with Atlanta. An eye problem (and subsequent confidence problems) wrecked his 2010. By 2011, we weren't ranking him any longer. A brief return to Pittsburgh this year didn't fix anything, and McLouth was waived in late May. Washed up at 31.

And that's where the magic of Baltimore kicks in.

The Orioles added McLouth to their Triple-A affiliate in June and he had an ordinary 47 games with Norfolk (.244/.325/.461, 10 homers, five steals). Not much of a slash, but you like the category juice. And in early August, with no fanfare or expectations, McLouth was summoned back to the majors.

McLouth's first 21 games in Baltimore have been a blast. He's rolling with a .274/.346/.452 slash, with two homers and six steals. He's scored 14 runs, knocked a couple of homers, driven in nine runs. He's a Top 24 fantasy outfielder over this span, though most gamers don't want to buy in yet. You can still add McLouth in 99 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Buck Sholwalter is using McLouth as the No. 3 batter most of the time (McLouth moves down to seventh against lefties). A good batting slot on an American League East offense, this could be fun. The Orioles are up against northpaws in four of the next five games, so it's a good time for some tire-kicking. McLouth has always been an outstanding baserunner, and he's scored runs in eight straight games.

You need more help with a McLouth decision? Fine, give me the mouse. Here are some heavily-owned players I'd drop for McLouth right now: Matt Joyce (43 percent, hitting .212 with three homers in second half, nicked up as well); Bryan LaHair (26 percent, wake up, gamers), Jeff Francoeur (28 percent, no explanation necessary), Brennan Boesch (25 percent, limited pop, no everyday job), Denard Span (16 percent, no pop, health concerns) and Michael Saunders (12 percent, hitting .198 over last month, big park). There are several others. Keep an open mind, amigos.

In shallow pools, okay, you can ignore McLouth. The three-outfielder leagues won't have to bother with him. But in a league that requires five outfielders or more (including flex slots), you better believe he's playable. I'm not chasing names, I'm after the numbers.

Sure, someone might laugh at your McLouth pickup. That's fine. They probably laughed at Ruggiano and Gomez and Colvin and Lohse, too. Not everyone understands how this plausible upside game works, and that's why you keep beating them. It's a beautiful day.

• Thursday isn't the friendliest streamer slate. I see the overall case for Jeremy Guthrie (10 percent), but I don't want to try him against Detroit (even with Porcello on the other side of it). Jarrod Parker (nine percent) at Cleveland seems like a workable spot, given the way the Indians are tanking. You can talk yourselves into Blake Beavan or Zach Britton if you want, but I won't participate.

Friday's rentables don't offer much, either, though I see the case of an early pickup on Mike Leake (10 percent) because he faces the Astros. Ordinary pitcher, sure, but this is obviously a dreamy matchup. Brandon McCarthy (50 percent) also looks good, at home against the stripped-down Red Sox.

• Alfredo Aceves doesn't believe in getting even, he'd rather stay mad. The Boston reliever and malcontent returned to action Tuesday at Anaheim, promptly blowing his second save in as many appearances. That makes three meltdowns this month, and 13 runs allowed in August. Andrew Bailey was in line for a day off Tuesday — he worked in four of the previous five games - but if you want a share of the Boston bullpen going forward, Bailey is without question the way to go. And if you haven't kicked Aceves to the curb yet, what more do you need to see?

The Yahoo! Fantasy Minute — Featuring Bradley Evans

Tags: , American League, , , , , McLouth, Nate McLouth, , pickup, , ,
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Shuffle Up: The riddle of Zack Greinke

20 Aug
2012
by in General

I'm not looking to slander every pitcher from Angels history, it just seems that way. I'll try to tackle Frank Tanana, Mike Witt and Chris Knapp before the New Year.

You should know the Shuffle Up rules by now. We're talking 5x5 roto value for the rest of the season. This isn't a keeper-league list, and it's not an A-to-Z ranking of what they've already done. I'll add comments as the day goes along, maybe tweak a ranking here and there.

Your respectful disagreement is always welcome, just make sure you defend your argument. It's good that you disagree; that's why we have a game. Just make sure you'd adding to the discussion when you comment; respect the room, gamer. And remember the golden rule: a player doesn't add 15-20 percent of bonus value just because he's on your roster.

Ranks are yours after the jump. Rosin bag sold separately.

$31 Justin Verlander
$30 Felix Hernandez
$29 Clayton Kershaw
$28 David Price
$28 Jered Weaver
$27 Cole Hamels
$26 Matt Cain
$25 R.A. Dickey
$24 Gio Gonzalez
$24 Johnny Cueto
$23 Madison Bumgarner
$22 Adam Wainwright
$21 Chris Sale
$20 Jake Peavy
$19 Stephen Strasburg
$19 Roy Halladay
$19 A.J. Burnett
$18 Zack Greinke
$18 Yovani Gallardo
$18 Matt Moore
$18 Jordan Zimmermann
$18 Mat Latos

At this stage of the game, Zack Greinke should be a fairly known commodity. He's made 264 appearances in the majors, 223 of them starts. He gave us a dominant season in 2009, winning the AL Cy Young in a runaway. He's usually an excellent source of strikeouts and K/BB ratio. Anyone who knows even a tiny bit about baseball realizes that this guy is a talented pitcher.

But is Greinke overrated? For my money, the answer is a resounding yes. The fantasy industry consistently treats this guy like he's a No. 1 arm, an elite pitcher, a perennial Cy Young candidate — and the results (other than 2009) simply haven't been there. He's been good, sure, but you're not making a fantasy profit here.

I get the sense a lot of roto players (and pundits) are still chasing Greinke's 2009 ratios (2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP). But stop for a moment and consider the rest of the resume. Greinke's next-best ERA in any other season is an ordinary 3.47. He's never pushed his WHIP under 1.20 in any other campaign. Other than that one dream season, Greinke has never shown up on anyone's Cy Young ballot in any year. His career ratios might surprise you (3.84/1.26); they're nothing special.

Greinke's year-and-a-half stint in Milwaukee was a tad strange: he went 15-0 at Miller Park and 10-9 everywhere else. The ERA gap was 1.57 last year, and it was similar this season. While most ballplayers are expected to hold a minor home-park bias, all else equal, it makes you wonder if there's anything else at play in this case.

The Spreadsheet Police will back up Greinke in most instances, of course. His 4.01 ERA this year is far behind his 3.00 FIP and 3.04 xFIP. Last year Greinke was 3.83 on the marquee, and 2.98 and 2.56 in the estimators. The 2010 split came out this way: 4.17 on the baseball card, 3.34 and 3.60 on the advanced-stat page. While we can't draw anything definitive from three years of data, you have to at least wonder if there's something to Greinke's case that makes him a consistent ERA disappointment. Maybe this is the opposite of the Matt Cain story.

I wonder if Greinke might be harmed by his excellent control: maybe it's possible to throw too many strikes. His career BABIP is .311 — not a crazy outlier, but higher than the league average. Now that he's 1,434 innings into this dance, maybe this is what he is, as good as it gets.

Some club is going to pay Greinke a boatload of cash this winter, pay him like a superstar pitcher. I think it's a mistake. And until he gets his bearings in the AL this summer, I'm not treating him like a fantasy ace, either.

$17 CC Sabathia
$17 Chris Capuano
$16 Cliff Lee
$16 Doug Fister
$16 Ryan Vogelsong
$15 Tim Hudson
$15 Hiroki Kuroda
$14 James Shields
$14 Paul Maholm
$14 Wade Miley
$13 Clay Buchholz
$13 Kris Medlen
$12 Max Scherzer
$12 Jeff Samardzija
$12 Jon Niese
$12 Jaime Garcia
$12 Jon Lester

The Cliff Lee bad-luck story might be a little overblown. His 3.83 ERA isn't that much different from the 3.59 FIP, and I'm not going to give him a total pass for the gopher ball problem. A lot of homers are born from a pitcher making a mistake or badly missing his intended target. … Most of the NL-to-AL crossovers have been a mess this year, especially the in-season guys (Greinke, Sanchez, Dempster). No real surprise: the American League is the hitter's league, and not just because of the DH. A rare exception to the rule has been Hiroki Kuroda. I didn't expect much from the 37-year-old, especially in that division and ballpark, but he's been lights out in his past 16 turns (9-1 record, 2.22 ERA, 18 walks, 91 strikeouts). A depressed hit rate (.265) has partially fueled the story, but Kuroda has been inducing plenty of weak contact (14 percent line-drives). Tip of the cap for a job well done. … Jaime Garcia is an impossible rank at the moment. He missed 10 weeks with a shoulder problem, then shocked everyone with a 10-strikeout gem against the Pirates on Sunday. My general reaction to this sort of outing is to shift to sell mode, but I realize the trading deadline has come and gone in a lot of leagues. He'll be tested at Cincinnati this week.

$11 Mike Fiers
$11 Kyle Lohse
$11 Edwin Jackson
$11 Ian Kennedy
$11 Jeremy Hellickson
$10 Lance Lynn
$10 James McDonald
$10 Tommy Hanson
$10 Ben Sheets
$10 Matt Harvey
$9 C.J. Wilson
$9 Josh Johnson
$9 Carlos Villanueva
$9 Chad Billingsley
$9 Hisashi Iwakuma
$8 Yu Darvish
$8 Derek Holland
$8 Patrick Corbin
$8 Bartolo Colon
$7 Tim Lincecum
$7 Joe Blanton
$7 Jake Westbrook

This is our big-name, bad-result tier, with disappointing aces like Wilson, Darvish and Lincecum staring back at us. When does a bad run become a bad season? I'm not waiting around for miracles. You can do what you like. … Hisashi Iwakuma was discussed in Saturday's Closing Time, documenting his strange starter/reliever splits this season. He's been terrific in his eight turns, after a mediocre run in the bullpen. It's been suggested that Eric Wedge's erratic usage pattern for Iwakuma might have caused the messy relief numbers. I expect the righty to have a nice turn Wednesday at home against Cleveland.

$6 Clayton Richard
$6 Jason Vargas
$6 Dan Haren
$6 Wei-Yin Chen
$6 Justin Masterson
$6 Phil Hughes
$6 Wandy Rodriguez
$6 Homer Bailey
$5 Josh Beckett
$5 Ryan Dempster
$5 Erik Bedard
$5 Trevor Cahill
$5 Brandon McCarthy
$5 Vance Worley
$5 Matt Harrison
$5 Francisco Liriano
$5 Mike Minor
$5 Dan Straily

Clayton Richard finally climbed over the 2.0 threshold for his K/BB ratio, so he's worth inclusion in the streamer pool. But when you strike out a mere 12 percent of the batters you face (in the NL for crying out loud), you don't offer much upside. … Josh Beckett could very well be next year's A.J. Burnett — a somewhat-volatile but undeniably-talented name brand who needs to get out of the hitter league, not to mention his fishbowl city. The Red Sox will certainly make him available, even if they deny it publicly. … Erik Bedard has made the most of PNC Park (2.63/1.12), but the results haven't traveled (6.98/1.82). His walks and strikeouts are fairly static in both places, but he's been homer-prone on the road and his visiting hit rate is out of whack as well.

$4 Mark Buehrle
$4 Zach McAllister
$4 Gavin Floyd
$4 Marco Estrada
$4 Jeremy Guthrie
$4 Scott Diamond
$3 Lucas Harrell
$3 Mike Leake
$3 Bronson Arroyo
$3 Ross Detwiler
$3 Jarrod Parker
$3 Joe Saunders
$2 Anibal Sanchez
$2 Tommy Milone
$2 Bud Norris
$2 Alex Cobb
$2 Jose Quintana
$2 Ricky Romero
$2 Edinson Volquez
$2 Henderson Alvarez
$2 Ricky Nolasco

Hats off to Lucas Harrell for finding a way to win games on that Double-A roster. … Edinson Volquez has only won three of 13 home starts despite decent ratios, and he's been a mess on the road (5.60/1.69), in part because of the expected homer spike. … Thanks for the memories, Mayday Milone. You'll definitely be receiving a playoff share, where applicable. … The supporting cast in Kansas City is fairly lean at the moment, but Jeremy Guthrie is simply happy to be out of pitcher-ruining Colorado. His August has been outstanding (28.2 IP, 17 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 23 K), and it's come against four contending clubs. … The Diamond Dogs are howling for underrated lefty Scott Diamond, but I can't go past four bucks. When soft-tossers eventually hit the wall, the scoreboard lights up. And strikeouts definitely matter in the 5x5 world.

$1 Franklin Morales
$1 Ivan Nova
$1 Jeff Karstens
$1 Jeff Niemann
$1 Wade LeBlanc
$1 Blake Beavan
$1 Felix Doubront
$1 Johan Santana
$0 Jhoulys Chacin
$0 Jason Marquis
$0 Will Smith
$0 Scott Feldman
$0 Freddy Garcia
$0 Kevin Millwood
$0 Aaron Harang
$0 Nathan Eovaldi
$0 Eric Stults
$0 Kyle Kendrick
-$1 Ervin Santana
-$2 Drew Pomeranz
-$3 Roy Oswalt
-$3 Rick Porcello
-$3 Jordan Lyles
-$4 Samuel Deduno
-$4 Barry Zito
-$5 Luke Hochevar
-$5 Ubaldo Jimenez

Tags: era, , , , , ,
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Bay Area Bombshell: Melky Cabrera hit with 50-game PED suspension

15 Aug
2012
by in General

Although my investment wasn't significant, I've been having fun with the Melky Cabrera story this year. He's been a frozen-rope machine and a five-category roto contributor. His .346-84-11-60-13 line has him ranked as the No. 6 outfielder in the Yahoo's fantasy baseball game.

On Wednesday afternoon, the music stopped. The happiness ended. The milk isn't clean.

Major League Baseball slapped Cabrera with a 50-game suspension Wednesday, in response to him failing a PED test. Assuming Cabrera can't appeal or delay this suspension in any way, his roto season is now over. The Giants have just 45 games remaining on their schedule.

And it doesn't sound like Cabrera is denying the charge in any way. "My positive test was the result of my use of a substance I should not have used," he told MLB.com in a statement. "I am deeply sorry for my mistake."

There's no obvious roto winner from the remaining San Francisco roster. Gregor Blanco, a routine fourth-outfielder type, might be pressed into a left-field role. Brandon Belt (who's been terrific in August and is widely available) could slide to left field if the Giants can get their hands on another first baseman. There's always the waiver trade market, I guess.

If you're in a medium mixer and need an outfield grab, here are some options (all in the 18-31 percent gap): Carlos Gomez (category juice is groovy), Garrett Jones (two positions, terrific of late), Rajai Davis (run run, reindeer), Jon Jay (blistering lately), Todd Frazier (versatile and likable), Starling Marte (looks like he belongs), Lorenzo Cain (comment sold separately) and Belt, of course.

If you need to go in the 11-percent and under range, here are some deeper names: David Murphy (fun in Texas), Eric Young (hopefully Cuddyer return doesn't muck it up), Alexi Amarista (handy at three spots), Norichika Aoki (getting leadoff time), Travis Snider (just five percent owned, a stunner), Jordany Valdespin (super athlete), Scott Hairston (useful when he plays) and Justin Maxwell (Houston still counts).

This is a fresh and developing story, and with that, I'll update this blog during the day as more information is available. For the moment, I'm just sad. I was enjoying the Melkman story. I wanted to believe it was legitimate. To be honest, I never doubted it.

Charge me with an error if you like. It won't be the first one.

Tags: Bombshell, Cabrera, , fantasy baseball game, , Gregor Blanco, , , , , , ,
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Week That Was: Weeks Not So Weak After All

12 Aug
2012
by in Fantasy Baseball, General
Glenn Colton takes a look at the recent resurgence of Rickie Weeks and some injury replacements who could help your roto squad in this week's Week That Was
Tags: , , , , Rickie Weeks, , , , Weeks
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Shuffle Up: With Carlos Ruiz down, let’s find you a new catcher

04 Aug
2012
by in General

As the calendar shifted to August, we had a terrific horserace shaping up for the Best Fantasy Catcher title. Yadier Molina, Carlos Ruiz, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer are all hitting .315 or better, three of them are showing power, all of them have good run-production stats (relative to position), and some of these guys even steal an occasional bag. They're all in the Top 85 in the Yahoo! game.

Sadly, it's shifted into a a three-man race to the finish line. In a roto year riddled with injuries, you can now add Chooch Ruiz to the list. Bad news on the doorstep.

The Phillies announced early Saturday that Ruiz is down for 4-6 weeks. He's dealing with plantar fasciitis in his foot, a nasty injury for anyone but especially a catcher. The Phils won't provide much to the roto pool by way of replacement; Brian Schneider and Eric Kratz are the leftover backstops.

With Ruiz off the board, it's time for an emergency Mini-Shuffle. Let's rank all the mixed-viable catchers here; let's help you figure out your next backstop move. .

Here's a quick refresher on the rules. We're ranking 5x5, rotisserie style, rest of 2012 only. What's happened to this point is merely an audition. If you're on the DL or in the minors, you're not eligible for this list. Don't obsess over the prices in a vacuum - focus on how the players relate to one another. Commodities at the same price are considered even.

I'll add comments shortly, and reserve the right to tweak this list as the day goes along. And later this weekend, we'll shuffle the men on the mound.

$20 Buster Posey
$20 Yadier Molina
$18 Carlos Santana
$18 Joe Mauer
$17 Miguel Montero

Buster Posey is such a dynamite hitter, you wonder if the Giants will eventually decide it's worth taking him out from behind the plate, full-time. Obviously you lose the positional advantage Posey brings as a backstop, but you'd hate to see him physically beaten down by the demands of the position. … Here's another reason why I love Yadier Molina: he suffered a jammed thumb this week and was questionable to plau Friday, but he winds up starting and stealing two bases. Many baseball observers (Keith Hernandez, for one) have noted that just about anyone could steal 15 bases a year if they really wanted to. Molina is proof of that. … Okay, I did a lot of smack talking about Carlos Santana's extended slump. He's woken up nicely, going ballistic over the last month. Welcome back. Is it a matter of finally getting healthy? A confidence boost? Sometimes we never know the whys and why nots. Does anyone really know for sure what torpedoed Adam Dunn last year?

$16 Mike Napoli
$16 Brian McCann
$16 Jesus Montero
$16 A.J. Pierzynski
$15 Ryan Doumit
$14 Matt Wieters
$14 Salvador Perez
$13 Wilin Rosario
$12 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
$12 Jonathan Lucroy

It's far too early to say Jesus Montero can't handle the mental demands of the DH position, but we have to note that he's slashing .306/.344/.472 when behind the plate, compared to .222/.270/.333 as a hit-only player. And like most seattle players, he's a completely different guy on the road (.603 OPS at Safeco, .784 elsewhere). His K/BB ratio shifted into a good place during his .300 July, an encourage sign. He was getting himself out for most of June. … It's been a weird, if productive, year for Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Lefties own him, for one thing, and while he's batting just .217 on the road, he does have 10 homers there. And now he has to deal with the presence of Ryan Lavarnway. It might be a good time to cash out on Salty while the market is still there.

$11 Alex Avila
$9 A.J. Ellis
$8 John Jaso
$7 Michael McKenry
$6 Geovany Soto
$5 Derek Norris
$4 Russell Martin
$3 Kurt Suzuki

I hope you caught A.J. Ellis trending on Twitter Friday night, sparked by Vin Scully and Nancy Sinatra. I don't know who the No. 2 baseball announcer of all time is, but Scully is the unquestioned No. 1. … You have to wonder how much the 2008-2009 workload took out of Kurt Suzuki's offensive game. I still think he's a good addition for the Nationals, but I miss the stud we saw a few years ago. Maybe the A's ran him into the ground.

$2 Ramon Hernandez
$2 Chris Iannetta
$1 Ryan Hanigan
$1 Jeff Mathis
$1 Hector Sanchez
$1 Devin Mesoraco
$1 Bobby Wilson
$1 Ryan Lavarnway
$0 Rod Barajas
$0 John Buck
$0 Josh Thole
$0 Jose Lobaton
$0 Carlos Corporan
$0 Eric Kratz
$0 John Baker

Tags: , Carlos Ruiz, , , Jarrod, , , , , Yadier,
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Roto Arcade mock final act, Rounds 9-12

25 Jul
2012
by in General

With doors at team facilities opening for business later this week, it's time for fantasy owners to fine tune their minds for the upcoming season. Same goes for the Roto Arcade crew. Monday-Wednesday this week we'll share four rounds/day from our annual mock exercise, a 10-team, non-PPR draft. Peruse. Ponder. And trash our picks in the comments section below.

See also: Rounds 1-4, Rounds 5-8

ROUND 9

1. Pierre Garcon, WR, Was — I'm not as enthusiastic about Washington's offense as most, but I'm happy to draft Garcon at a spot where I won't actually need to use him most weeks. Roddy, Smith and D-Jax are starting for this team. Others considered: Brown, Celek, Tamme (Behrens)

2. Donald Brown, RB, Ind — The Colts are talking about Brown as if they expect him to be a workhorse. Or possibly a mini-workhorse. (Teacup workhorse? Work-pony?) This team went RB-RB-RB at the top of the draft, so this pick isn't too risky. Others considered: A pile of QBs. But in a 10-team league, I'll get one (Behrens)

3. Reggie Wayne, WR, Ind — Once caught passes from Johnny Unitas he's been with the Colts so long, but still a savvy route runner with a little something left in the tank. Quality WR3 in what will be a high-volume passing attack under Andrew Luck. Others considered: Mike Williams, Titus Young (Evans)

4. Titus Young, WR, Det — Nate Burleson isn't exactly a spring chicken. Young dethrones him as the Lions' WR2 in short order. Convinced a 70-1000-8 season is right around the corner. Others considered: Mike Williams (Evans)

5. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Car — It's a gridlock situation in Carolina, but this is still a back with a career 5.1 YPC - and he's my fourth option. Others considered: Patriot backs, a QB to spite someone, Mark Ingram (Pianowski)

6. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Oak — Lots of talented Oakland receivers, and now they finally get a full season with a plus quarterback. Others considered: Patriots backs, a QB to spite someone (Pianowski)

7. Stevan Ridley, RB, NE — Better fit for the lucrative BJGE role than Vereen; Averaged 5.1 YPC as a rookie. Others considered: Jacquizz Rodgers, Ronnie Hillman (Funston)

8. Vincent Brown, WR, SD — Can work both on the outside or underneath. I'm betting that he, not Meachem or Floyd, ends up being Rivers' most trusted WR. Others considered: Jacquizz Rodgers, Ronnie Hillman (Funston)

9. Denarius Moore, WR, Oak — Has a ton of talent and could explode in year 2. Others considered: Malcom Floyd (Del Don)

10. Eli Manning, QB, NYG — Manning with the last pick in round 9. I'll take it. Others considered: Peyton Manning (Del Don)

ROUND 10

1. Malcom Floyd, WR, SD — Can't stay on the field but highly productive when he does. Vincent Jackson now gone. Interesting to note both Robert Meachem and Vincent Brown were taken ahead of him. Others considered: Santonio Holmes (Del Don)

2. Jahvid Best, RB, Det — Maybe biggest durability risk in the league, but at this stage of the draft, worth a gamble. Others considered: Mark Ingram (Del Don)

3. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Atl — An expanded role is on its way. Will give Falcons a Darren Sproles-like element to their attack, but Quizz Show has more between-the-tackles utility. Others considered: Hillman (Funston)

4. David Wilson, RB, NYG — An electric runner and a motor that won't quit. With Bradshaw's foot issues, a handcuff is prudent. Others considered: None as I was paying for some Bradshaw insurance (Funston)

5. Ryan Williams, RB, Ari — I'll bet against Beanie Wells anytime I can. Others considered: Ingram, Hillman (Pianowski)

6. Mark Ingram, RB, NO — When you can't land star running backs, you better get depth. Ingram will be considerably more prepared for his second pro season. Others considered: Hillman (Pianowski)

7. Toby Gerhart, RB, Min — As detailed earlier this week, Minnesota's Bane lookalike is being groomed as a starter. May net upwards of 3-5 starts depending on how quickly Adrian Peterson recovers. High-impact RB3/FLEX early year option. Others considered: Hillman (Evans)

8. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Den — McGahee may be the de facto starter, but Hillman is a strong candidate to lead the Broncos backfield in touches come year's end. Versatile rookie broke Marshall Faulk's freshman rushing record while at San Diego St. Sizable RB2 potential. Others considered: Nate Washington, Mike Williams, Justin Blackmon (Evans)

9. Jay Cutler, QB, Chi — By now, you should all know how I feel about Cutler's fantasy potential in the year ahead, given the improvements to the Bears' receiving corps. And if you don't know, here's a link. Others considered: Peyton, Big Ben (Behrens)

10. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit — The starter on this squad (Stafford) does not exactly have an iron-man reputation. Ben is set up for a terrific year — excellent receivers, improved O-line. Others considered: Peyton, Randy Moss, Celek, and this next guy... (Behrens)

ROUND 11

1. Jacob Tamme, TE, Den — We all remember how useful this guy was just two seasons ago, right? He's been reunited with Peyton and could very well lead the Broncos in receptions. Others considered: Same bunch as above (Behrens)

2. Peyton Manning, QB, Den — OK, this team's QB platoon is ridiculous. I'd happily play this league out. When was the last time Peyton was available in Round 11? Has this ever happened? Others considered: Moss, various other receivers (Behrens)

3. Nate Washington, Ten, WR — Britt's unlawful ways and multiple knee surgeries should make Washington Tennessee's primary WR from Day 1. Quietly posted a 74-1023-7 line in 16 games a season ago. Others considered: Mike Williams (Evans)

4. Mike Williams, TB, WR — Experienced sophomore slump largely due to excessive double-teams. V-Jax's presence should help immensely. Better-than-you-think rebound candidate. Others considered: None (Evans)

5. Lance Moore, WR, NO — He's always had a sharp connection with Drew Brees, especially around the goal line. Others considered: Every WR not named Britt (Pianowski)

6. Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ — He's a grade-A knucklehead, but this late in the dance, I'll bet on talent and hope he flies right. Others considered: Several other Brittless guys (Pianowski)

7. Jared Cook, TE, Ten — Loved his potential before Bad News Britt found more trouble this summer. Now, he has good chance to become focal point of passing game. Others considered: Sidney Rice, Santana and Randy Moss (Funston)

8. Sidney Rice, WR, Sea — In Round 11, the reward (83/1312/8 in '09) definitely outweighs the risk (15 games played in past two seasons combined). Others considered: Mosses (Funston)

9. Matt Ryan, QB, Atl — After waiting to draft my first QB, I typically like to draft another one soon thereafter. Others considered: Carson Palmer (Del Don)

10. Carson Palmer, QB, Oak — My favorite "sleeper" quarterback this season. I'd actually feel fine with him as my starter in deeper leagues. Others considered: Matt Schaub (Del Don)

ROUND 12

1. Michael Crabtree, WR, SF — Proven to be not an elite talent and now has to deal with a crowded receiving corps in San Francisco. I strongly considered Kenny Britt here. Others considered: Kenny Britt, Mike Goodson (Del Don)

2. Michael Bush, RB, Chi — With Matt Forte on this squad, it seemed like the right time for some insurance. Others considered: Kenny Britt, Kevin Smith (Del Don)

3. Isaiah Pead, RB, StL — S-Jax is the highest mileage RB in the league, and Pead offers head coach Jeff Fisher a Chris Johnson type element to the rush attack. Others considered: Pierre Thomas (Funston)

4. Shane Vereen, RB, NE — Doubt there'll ultimately be a true lead back for Pats, but it's nice to have my bases covered if there is. Others considered: None — looking to tie up NE backfield (Funston)

5. Pierre Thomas, RB, NO — I just do whatever Sean Payton tells me to. Others considered: Tim Hightower (Pianowski)

6. Tim Hightower, RB, Was — He's not nearly as talented as Roy Helu, but you never know which way the Shanahanigans will flow. Others considered: Kevin Smith, Anquan Boldin (Pianowski)

7. Kenny Britt, WR, Ten — Britt fought the law and the law won … eight times. Suspension handed down by Goodell will be harsh. And his knees are Jell-O. Still, he's extremely talented and worth the low-risk pick. Others considered: Boldin (Evans)

8. Robert Turbin, RB, Sea — Marshawn Lynch's legal team feels confident he'll avoid a suspension. The Noise, however, remains very unconvinced. Turbin is a late-draft leviathan capable of inflicting serious damage in a starting role. Heart him. Others considered: Kevin Smith (Evans)

9. Randy Moss, WR, SF — I was looking at him in the last round, so I'm a bit surprised (and pleased) that he fell this far. At this stage, he's just a lottery ticket. If he's a bust, fine. This team is stacked. Others considered: Felix, Boldin, Goodson, Daniel Thomas (Behrens)

10. Felix Jones, RB, Dal — I realize everyone is crazy for DeMarco Murray, but I just can't imagine that Dallas won't find a use for Felix, too. He's only 25 years old, his career YPC is 5.1(!), and he had three 100-yard games last season (same as DeMarco). Others considered: Boldin, Celek, Goodson (Behrens)

FINAL TEAM-BY-TEAM BREAKDOWN

Need more Andy, Brad, Brandon, Dalton and Scott in your life? Tune into The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

Tags: Arcade, , Ind, Jacquizz, Mike Williams, , Pianowski, RB, ,
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