by in General

As you probably already know, Josh Hamilton currently leads the American League in basically every major hitting category, by a wide margin. He has a five-homer lead over Curtis Granderson, a 14-RBI edge over Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion, and his batting average is 36 points higher than Derek Jeter's. He ranks first in the AL in slugging percentage at .848, which puts him 215 points ahead of the dude in second place, David Ortiz.

Hamilton is coming off one of the most impressive one-week individual slugging performances in baseball history, going 13-for-28 with nine home runs and 16 RBIs from May 6 to May 12. Only Frank Howard has ever hit more bombs in a single week. He's good, this Hamilton fella — very good.

Yet during his nine-homer binge, he was also one of the more heavily traded stocks in fantasy.

The trade questions began rolling in via Twitter on Wednesday, after Hamilton single-handedly destroyed the Orioles with a record-tying four-dinger outburst. The deals were typically two-for-ones, with an elite starting pitcher and an early-round hitter packaged for Hamilton. It was David Price and Ian Kinsler in one deal, CC Sabathia and Justin Upton in another.

Now c'mon, those are pretty spectacular hauls, no matter your opinion of Hamilton. All the big issues we worried about back in February still exist with this player — elevated injury risk, elevated personal demon risk — and it's not like we're just now finding out that he's capable of delivering best-in-game stats. If you're a Hamilton owner who's looking to cash out, I get it.

...but in this case, I can also understand the desire to buy or hold. There's a Triple Crown buzz surrounding Hamilton, and that's a feat we haven't seen in the fantasy era. He's on pace for something like 80 homers and 200 RBIs. Someday you might tell your grandchildren about the magical year you owned Hamilton in AL-only roto.

...or you'll flip him immediately in AL-only, because the threat of injury is so great and replacement value in your league is so low.

I suppose the bottom line here is that I wish I had your problems, Hamilton owner. Instead, I'm the guy waiting impatiently for the Jose Bautista surge. If you've been on either side of a Josh Hamilton deal in recent days, please share the details below, after the lively video. Trading volume has been high, so a few of you should have stories to tell...

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by in General

Old. Decrepit. Antiquated. These were just a few words fanalysts used to describe Raul Ibanez preseason.

Though it's true the centenarian once decked Bill the Butcher in a bare-knuckle boxing match in 1851, it appears he has plenty left in the tank. Sipping from the Fountain of Youth, Ibanez has posted numbers most owners would fawn over if not tallied by an supposed over-the-hill hitter. His .273-7-21-10-2 line over just 88 at-bats checks in at No. 38 among eligible outfielders and No. 147 overall, ahead of coveted juniors Justin Upton, Alex Gordon and Drew Stubbs.

Enough with the age discrimination, mixed leaguers. The venerable Yankee deserves your consideration, at the very least.

Thumbing through the baseball annals, a handful of major leaguers fended off the corrosive effects of Father Time to post quality numbers during their age 39 campaigns. Since 2000, notable names Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Steve Finley and Andres Galaragga each clubbed 25-plus homers and drove in 90 or more runs at an identical point on the career arc. Sure, his elite days with the Mariners and Phillies are firmly entrenched in the past, but there are several underlying signs that suggest Ibanez could join his geriatric predecessors in the exclusive 25-90 Club 39.

[ Jeff Passan: Who's most likely to land Josh Hamilton on the free-agent market?]

For starters, the crafty veteran has sported an eagle eye. He's sliced his K-rate in half ('11: 18.4, '12: 9.3), seeing more pitches while drawing more walks. A ground pounder in his final two stints with the Phillies ('10 GB/FB: 1.19, '11: 1.32), he's also transformed into a fly-ball hitter (0.88 GB/FB in '12), routinely turning on offerings over the inner half in an attempt to take advantage of the friendly Yankees Stadium jet stream. Of the five homers he's smacked at the House Jeter Built, four were pulled. Even more impressive, Ibanez ranks second to Josh Hamilton in no doubters according to Hittracker. Balls off his bat are sailing, not sneaking, over the fence, an excellent indicator of bat speed and strength. Despite his advanced age, the man needs no Boniva. And based on his two steals (In the past, pandas mated more frequently than Ibanez stole bags), he apparently doesn't need a motorized scooter either.

With Brett Gardner roughly 2-3 weeks from activation, Ibanez will continue to log regular PT. Even when the speedster returns, he should remain a fixture in the lineup. As New York manager Joe Girardi remarked earlier this week, the lefty has delivered many timely connections. From the Daily News:

Capping a week in which Ibanez went 8-for-18 with four homers and nine RBI, the seventh hitter in the lineup drove in the game's first run on a two-out, two-strike double in the second inning. He then hit a solo shot over the center field wall in the fourth.

"He's been doing it for a long time," Joe Girardi said. "I'm not sure (the double pitch) was on the plate. I don't think it was a strike and that's how good of a hitter he is."

Ibanez had a two-homer game against the Rays Tuesday night and a three-run blast off King Felix Hernandez on Friday.

"It's been incredible," Girardi said. "It's one thing to have 20 or so RBI, but it's another thing to have the 20 RBI, the type that he has. How big they've been for us. A lot of them have been game changers for us and that's what he's done for us."

Overshadowed on his own team by superstars Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher, the 27-percent owned commodity should continue to thrive as long as his peripherals remain intact. On a 33-homer, 100-RBI pace, it's fathomable he could outpace or finish within striking distance of heavily owned boppers like Corey Hart, Matt Joyce and Josh Willingham.

As Fantasyland continues to fawn over a 19-year-old .232 hitter with anger issues (Bryce Harper), New York's Old Man River quietly rages.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 395 at-bats, .268 BA, 19 HR, 74 RBI, 52 R, 2 SB

FLAMES OF THE WEEK

Andy Dirks, Det, OF (28-percent owned) — With five multi-hit games, two homers, six RBIs and eight runs scored since Cinco de Mayo, the former Wichita St. standout has shocked the fantasy community. Cemented in the two-hole behind Austin Jackson, the sparkplug is immediately acquirable in 12-team and deeper mixers. His high-contact rate and knack for getting on-base should give owners a pleasurable case of the runs, especially with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder dismantling baseballs behind him. Dirks' minor league track-record denotes he's more of a low double-digit power producer, but his 17 steals between two levels last year indicates he should eventually swipe bags. Put it all together and he could emerge a 12-15 player come year's end. Dirks, though currently bothered by a minor hamstring injury, is a valuable asset who deserves more attention.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 418 at-bats, .280 BA, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 65 R, 13 SB

Christian Friedrich, Col, SP (8-percent) — Seventeen strikeouts in 13.1 innings pitched. About 99.9-percent of the time, fantasy owners would scale Mount Everest to acquire a starting pitcher with that kind of initial output. But few have made the effort. Coors Field's thin air combined with Friedrich's skyward ways (0.69 GB/FB) are, to some, a recipe for future disaster. Though his ERA is due to rise, it's extremely difficult to ignore his first two turns in the Bigs. Showing the poise and polish of an established vet, the southpaw has performed like a well-oiled machine, featuring a darting, late-moving low-to-mid 90s fastball, big-breaking curve, slider and change. As long as his command remains harnessed, continued success is in the crystal ball. After humiliating the Giants on the road Monday (7 IP, 1 ER, 10 K, 1 BB), he is worth an immediate add, deep-leaguer. Two of his next three starts, home clashes with SEA and HOU, are quite favorable.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 146.1 IP, 8 W, 3.79 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 142 K

LAMES O' THE WEAK

Jimmy Rollins, Phi, SS — The once revered shortstop's slow descension toward mediocrity continues. A common entrant high on owner cheat-sheets preseason, he currently ranks outside the SS top-20 and No. 346 overall, behind future superstars Kyle Seager and Robert Andino. One of Rollins' goals entering the season was to become a more efficient hitter. Sadly, the opposite has occurred. His spike in strikeouts ('11 K%: 9.4, '12: 16.3) and dwindling power are major concerns. However, he's not completely toast. His 88-plus contact percentage suggests if he can take a pitch or two, his BA should eventually rebound into the .265-.275 range. He's also stealing bases at a rather prolific clip, evident in his 31 SB pace. At 33, MVP-caliber numbers are certainly behind him, but J-Roll should eventually reverse course, finishing at or around the top-10 at his position. Traded this week for Vance Worley, Jon Lester and Logan Morrison in one-for-one deals, the veteran is a quality buy-low candidate.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 422 at-bats, .272 BA, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 63 R, 21 SB

Ricky Romero, Tor, SP — Tattooed in two of his past three turns, last year's breakout star has faded rapidly. Since May 2, he's surrendered 11 runs in 19.1 innings pitch, amassing a wretched 13:13 K:BB split in the process. Clear in his dramatic rise in BB/9, fastball command has been Romero's biggest bugaboo. The offering is largely average so far this season according to Fangraphs' pitch value metric. Because his strikeout pitch is the change, fastball execution is imperative for the lefty. Without it, as seen recently against Texas and Minnesota, and he's extremely vulnerable. Romero still coaxes a high volume of groundball outs, but his increase in gopherballs coupled with the walks leaves a bitter taste. There's hope for a turnaround, but considering the division, his 4.20 xFIP and other disturbing peripherals, it could be a step-back year for the hurler. Shop him while his all-around numbers are still palatable.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 163.1 IP, 10 W, 4.11 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 127 K

QUICK HITTERS (Random musings from my demented brain)

Consider this your final notice to take advantage of slashed prices on Drew Storen and Michael Morse. Both are slated to start rehab assignments in the next week or two targeting early June returns. Due to Henry Rodriguez's recent struggles, Storen, who slammed the door 43 times last year, should reclaim the ninth-inning role once he rounds into shape. As for Morse, many have already written him off as a one-year wonder, but his prime age and steady isolated power totals since 2009 indicate he's no flash-in-the-pan. He is very capable of smashing 20-plus homers once reinserted into the starting lineup.

Carlos Beltran claims his right knee soreness is nothing to be concerned about, but, based on his long injury history and current earth-shattering pace (.295-60-148-129-23), it's sage for owners to advertise the outfielder's services. I would be shocked if played 135 games this year. In one-for-one swaps this week he's attracted the likes of Justin Verlander, Dustin Pedroia and, interestingly enough, Albert Pujols. Profit.

God forbid, but if the injury imp wreaks havoc on the Rangers outfield later this season, Leonys Martin could become a fantasy factor. Scouts peg him as an above average leadoff man capable of contributing noticeable returns in all major 5x5 categories. He looked fantastic in a brief stint with the senior club last year and was off to a torrid start at Triple-A Round Rock (98 at-bats, .347 BA, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 13 R, 7 SB) before succumbing to a thumb setback May 1. He should return to the Express lineup sometime mid-summer. If he bounces back quickly, a promotion could be right around the corner. Store his name to long-term memory.

In every fantasy football draft imaginable this year, I'm targeting Matthew Stafford in Round 2. Coming off one of the most historic, and overshadowed, seasons in NFL history, the 5,000-yard, 41-TD beast continues to get slighted for being injury prone. In a way, he's this generation's Fred Taylor, a player who was consumed by injury early in his career, earned an unfortunate "fragile" label but proved to be largely durable and highly productive over the remainder of his career. Look, Stafford, arguably one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league (Remember the separated shoulder game versus the Browns a couple years back?), has yet to reach his prime and is in a ripe situation. He has arguably the game's deadliest downfield weapon in Calvin Johnson, a host of quality secondary and tertiary targets (e.g. Nate Burleson, Titus Young, Brandon Pettigrew and hopefully Jahvid Best), a still flimsy defense and suspect ground attack. Mix all of those ingredients together and 2011's sweet numbers could be replicated. And don't be swayed by the silly Madden Curse. Larry Fitzgerald and Drew Brees were able to stave off its voodoo powers. Megatron will too.

REO Speedwagon's classic "Take it on the Run" has officially become my favorite singalong while half-crocked song. If Nelson Cruz ever cheats on the Noise, I will go "Say Anything" on his front doorstep, blaring the tune, to ensure he clearly understands the pain he caused. And Sweet Nelly, please quit whiffing.

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The Albert Pujols mystery in Anaheim has turned into a nifty screen for Kansas City's Eric Hosmer. If not for Albert's much-ballyhooed struggles, more of the fantasy public would be zeroing in on the Royals, trying to figure out what happening with the struggling sophomore (.182/.248/.336) Let's go under the hood (Fangraphs is your best friend, gamer) and see what we can find.

One thing we can say for Hosmer: despite his horrendous percentages, his counting numbers really aren't that bad. He's on pace to knock 23 homers, score 74 runs and drive in 83 more. That's less than we expected back in March, sure, but it's not a bad haul for someone hitting Blink 182.

Outlier batting averages come with outlier BABIPs, so no one should be surprised by Hosmer's .175 mark there. There's been a modest dip in his line-drive rate but his BB/K trend is heading in the right direction (walks are up, strikeouts are down). He's cut down on his swings outside the strike zone and his overall contact numbers look fine, so this doesn't seem like an approach problem.

[MLB Full Count: Watch live look-ins and highlights for free all season long]

If Hosmer is to grow into the superstar that everyone expects, he needs to develop against left-handed pitching. Southpaws controlled him easily last year and it's been even worse in 2012; over his 189 at-bats against lefties as a big-leaguer, he has a dreadful .217/.266/.286 slash. But considering Hosmer is all of 22 years old, there's plenty of time to make adjustments in that area. There's no risk of a platoon forming — the Royals will leave him alone, give him time and reps to figure it out.

Mash all of this together and I'm not particularly concerned about Hosmer going forward; perhaps you can buy him low (well, moderately discounted) in a league here or there. Ned Yost is going to use Hosmer in the No. 2 slot for a while, see if that gets the kid's bat going.

The National League version of Hosmer (young, slumping first sacker) might be Ike Davis. The Mets are providing the 25-year-old lefty with plenty of chances to produce runs - he's batted a league-high 51 times with runners in scoring position - but he hasn't been up to the task. Davis's production in those situations (.157/.218/.294, 20 Ks) is almost identical to his nightmare seasonal slash, except for an elevated strikeout rate. Imagine where the surprising Mets might be if they simply had a league-average cornerman taking these at-bats.

Davis's washout start is a partially-excused absence, of course: he had a serious ankle injury last May and, more importantly, he battled the mysterious Valley Fever this spring. Davis also missed Sunday's game with a flu bug - it's not clear if that's a residual from Valley Fever or something completely different. It's not easy to play your best ball when you're constantly worried about fatigue and breathing problems.

Davis insists his early-season funk has nothing to do with his spring issues, but no one really knows the story here. Maybe he's simply sick of talking about the issue, or he doesn't want to look like a guy making excuses. Davis has been lowered in the batting order for the last three weeks - batting sixth or lower in all but one game - and I'd be surprised if he forced a promotion anytime soon.

The Arizona State product is hacking at more pitches outside the zone this year and his swinging-strike numbers have spiked, so he's making some of his bad fortune. And with a heavy ground-ball spike (all the way up to 51.8 percent, well over his career norm), it's no great surprise Davis has just two doubles to go with his five homers.

Could geography be the issue here? Davis is off to a 3-for-56 start at home (all singles), as opposed to an acceptable .258/.310/.515 slash on the road. All five of his homers, naturally, have come away from New York. Is this a case of a slumping player trying too hard to get the fans off his back? Or are we just looking at a fluky piece of data, driven by a modest sample of 35 games, and reading too much into it?

It looked like Davis might be breaking out last week, homering agains the Phillies and Marlins, but he's fallen back into a 0-for-13 rut since then, with five strikeouts. Maybe that's the weekend virus talking. Davis is still on pace to launch 23 homers, but the run production isn't there and he's headed for 167 strikeouts. The odd 2012 case of Davis comes down to more of a gut-feel call, and at the end of the day this is not someone I'd chase in a trade unless the price came significantly discounted. You're welcome to offer your take, and your intelligent counters, in the comments.

While everyone breaks into a chorus of "Where have you gone, Rico Brogna?" . . . let's look at some Tuesday-specific action from the sandlots:

• Brett Lawrie is another young player mildly disappointing us in 2012 (.289/.333/.394), though he's posted respectable counting stats (16 runs, 17 RBIs) and some category juice (three homers, five steals). But those stats are going to be on ice in the near future; his ninth-inning meltdown from Tuesday is sure to draw a league suspension. If you haven't seen the highlight yet, click on over: Lawrie disagreed with two highly-questionable strike calls (the second of which punched him out), and when he slammed his helmet in frustration, it ricocheted into contact with home plate umpire Bill Miller. The Ranger isn't gonna like this, Yogi.

I wonder if Miller took exception to Lawrie trying to buy the ball-four call with a premature trot to first. This sort of batter act has to be transparent to the men behind the plate, and everyone knows that some umpires, rightly or wrongly, will subject young players to a slightly-different standard until they get their feet wet in The Show. That sort of treatment happens all over pro sports — you might say it's an epidemic in the NBA, where seniority is everything. Don't shoot the arrows at me, I didn't make the rules and I certainly have no say in how they're enforced. I'm just raising the issue for discussion.

But here's one thing I definitely like about Lawrie: he's passionate. It's obvious he wants to succeed, and to win, very badly; his all-out fervor makes Bryce Harper look like Brad Pitt's couch slacker from True Romance. If I were a Toronto fan (right now I'm more of a sympathizer, but I'm getting there), I'd be all in on this guy. You know he's going to leave it on the field every night, and you can say the same for manager John Farrell, an admirable mix of intelligence and personality.

The pro-Tampa folks in the crowd might have a different view of the Lawrie at-bat: perhaps it was a case of Jose Molina doing his masterful framing, or maybe it's a sign that Fernando Rodney is getting mad-respect from the men in blue. Are you ready to live in a world where Rodney is the AL's best relief pitcher? We're getting very close to that bizarre reality: he's posted 11 saves (without a blemish) and two wins, along with a 0.51 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Three walks against 17 strikeouts? Take a long and deserved bow, Jim Hickey. You're a miracle worker.

• The Red Sox needed a statement from their two aces this week, and for a change, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett stepped to the challenge. Lester mowed down the Mariners in his complete game Monday (8 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K), and Beckett was very sharp in his Tuesday victory (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K, no three-putts). That's a great starting-off point, but sterner tests lie ahead. Lester and Beckett will pitch at Philadelphia this weekend (okay, not so scary in 2012), then face some combination of Tampa Bay, Detroit, Toronto and Baltimore in the next few weeks. No easy pickings in that group. If I owned Beckett anywhere, I'd be quietly trying to sell the line and the pictures from Tuesday night.

• How do we spin this Wei-Yin Chen story? Did the Orioles steal a potential ace when they signed the Taiwanese lefty to an affordable three-year deal, or is Chen's early success built on a shaky foundation? It's time for a closer look.

Chen notched his fourth victory in seven starts Tuesday against the Yankees, working seven strong innings (4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K) and outdueling CC Sabathia. Chen hasn't been ducking anyone in the first quarter of the year, facing New York twice, Texas once and Boston once. He's yet to allow more than three earned runs in any turn, and his season adds up to a 2.45 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His average fastball clocks at a modest 90.1 mph, but he's spotting it well and getting results. Chen also has a positive grade on his curve and change, though he's relying on the fastball almost two-thirds of the time.

The peripheral-suggested ERAs throw some cold water on the story, mind you. Chen's FIP is 3.41, almost a full run over the standard number, and his xFIP stands at 4.41, tied to his fortunate 4.9 HR/FB rate. And that gopher-friendly pace is important for Chen, because he only induces ground balls a third of the time. Warmer weather and increased exposure around the league will probably push the ERA into the high 3s by midseason.

Nonetheless, Chen is working deep into games and he's throwing strikes (and getting 2.3 whiffs for every free pass), so it's perfectly fine to consider him a preferred streamer in the interim. There's also a nifty support system in place: Baltimore has 58 homers to lead the majors, and closer Jim Johnson has converted 20 straight save chances (including three of Chen's victories). The lefty gets a favorable match against the offensively-challenged Nationals on Sunday, but he'll also have to find a way to beat Stephen Strasburg.

• Gregor Blanco has settled in as a Giants regular and he's taking advantage, on a 6-for-15 binge the last four days with seven runs, four walks and two steals. He's homered once, too. Blanco was a running machine during the meaningless spring games (13 bags) and if nothing else, it seems like he'll get the green light now. He's unowned in 98 percent of Yahoo! leagues; consider a short-term speed rental, see where it goes.

That's what I've got for you today, gamers. So liberating to go bullpen-free for once (if you want the Jose Valverde post-mortem, we've got your dance over here). Feel free to cover your favorite unmentioned player in the comments, be it someone young (Mike Trout and Bryce Harper homered Tuesday), someone unheralded (that pesky Daniel Nava keeps getting on base) or someone old (Jamie Moyer pitches at Coors Field on Wednesday). The office is temporarily closed, but the floor is all yours.

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by in General

Evidently ex-bed buddy Kim Kardashian's reportedly steamy relationship with hip-hop mogul Kanye West is fueling Reggie Bush.

The fleet-footed rusher, who finished inside the RB top-15 in a breakout campaign with the Fins last year, is setting a lofty, almost laughable goal for the 2012 season:  Winning the NFL rushing title. From the Sun-Sentinel:

There's a possibility Bush can contribute even more for the Dolphins this upcoming season because this west coast offense fits his skill set. Head coach Joe Philbin is excited about the tools in Bush's tool belt, and has a vision of how to better utilize his skill set, hinting that Bush might line up as a receiver more.

That might explain why Bush told WSVN's Sports Xtra on Sunday that his goal is to lead the NFL in rushing this season. […]

"I want the rushing title," said Bush, who finished 11th in rushing last season. "This offseason I've been working towards that goal. Just being effective like I was this past season.

"Every time I rush the ball I want four yards," said Bush, who averaged 5.0 yards per carry in 2011. "I'm keeping my focus simple and small, but at same time helping my team progress."

Rrrriiiiggghhttt. And Tim Tebow will complete 85 percent of his passes this fall.

Miami's stout O-line and Bush's newfangled gusto between the tackles — he racked up 5.6 YPC in up-the-gut runs last year — would lead one to surmise the RB's claim, though ultra-confident, isn't overly exuberant. However, those are Miami's only positive takeaways on offense. Under new head coach Joe Philbin, this is a franchise in transition.  Rookie Ryan Tannehill, who started just 19 games at quarterback during his four-year career at Texas A&M, may begin the season under center. Davone Bess is the best returning receiver after Brandon Marshall blew north to the Windy City in March. And, most complicating for Reggie, local product Lamar Miller was plucked in the draft. The youngster and Daniel Thomas are expected to push Bush for touches when Dolphins training camp opens later this summer. Add it all up, and it appears he's drank too much Kool-Aid basking in the South Beach sun.

If Tannehill proves to be a sensation out of the gate and someone in the receiving corps transforms into a reliable target, maybe Bush flirts with the RB top 10. He should net plenty of touches via ground and air. Keep in mind Philbin has designs of lining him up in the slot as a receiver, similar to how Sean Payton deployed him during his tenure with the Saints. Still, it's highly improbable he meets the self-made expectation. Point blank: The Fins might have the third-best offense in the state of Florida, especially if Chad Henne overtakes wayward Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville.

For fantasy purposes, consider Bush a back-end RB2 in standard formats (top-tier RB2 in PPR leagues) capable of 1,350 total yards and six-eight TDs, a solid value at his current 53.2 average draft position (ADP).

Psychologically, it's good for athletes to set the bar high. However, unless Bush has LeBron-like hops, he won't eclipse it.

Want to bull rush Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise and be sure to check him along with Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston and Scott Pianowski on The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 PM PT/8 PM ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

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I don't mind if MLB wants to go with a "30 new closers in 30 days" gimmick for this season, I just wish they'd promote it a little better. Mercy.

Jose Valverde stepped into the ring of fire Tuesday afternoon in Chicago, in what was supposed to be a routine "get work" appearance with a four-run lead. Papa Grande retired the first two batters, then Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski followed with hits. Valverde went to a 3-1 count on the ensuing batter, Alex Rios, before the proceedings stopped and the Tigers removed him from the game.

A half hour later, the news came down: Valverde is dealing with lower back tightness. "Just have to keep our fingers crossed on Jose," Tigers manager Jim Leyland told MLB.com. "I think it's all right."

Detroit has used Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel as Valverde's gatekeepers this year; Benoit usually gets the eighth inning while Dotel works in the seventh. Benoit pitched a scoreless eighth in Tuesday's game, and it was Dotel who inherited the chippy save chance that Valverde created. Dotel finished off Rios's walk, allowed a hit, then recorded one out. Ballgame. Good work if you can get it.

A day-to-day injury like this might not sound like much, but we have to consider the body type with Valverde. He's 6-foot-4 and generously listed at 254 pounds, and he's never really been in Olympic shape. He's only topped 67 innings twice in his relief career (though he did sail past that number last year). If you drafted Valverde back in March, you knew what you were getting into. (I felt confident Valverde was headed for a possible injury this year, I just thought it would happen through elaborate celebration. Looks like I lost that prop.)

Leyland is a manager who likes simplicity with his roster and lineup. He's not one of those Tony LaRussa types who wants moving parts all over his ballclub. If Leyland wrote a daily chess puzzle, the solution would be "mate in one." LaRussa's puzzle would be a five-day series that ultimately served as a testament to LaRussa's genius. Leyland has never been a manager with an ego or a complicated plan.

What I'm bandying about is this: if the Tigers do need to replace Valverde for an extended period of time (and no one's saying that yet), I'd expect one pitcher to get the bulk of the closing work. Leyland generally wants defined roles, so long as his players can handle it. He's the guy who stuck with Todd Jones through thick and thin for so many years. He's good to his closers.

Because Benoit already had claim to the eighth inning, I'd make him my first speculation play here. Dotel actually has much better stats this year and considerably more closing experience over the years (he's also four years older than Benoit), if that matters to you. But the one time Dotel was asked to secure a save in a traditional manner this year, it turned into a mess: he couldn't throw a strike in Seattle. Maybe that means something to the Tigers, maybe it doesn't.

Some might point to Benoit's five blown saves from 2011, but throw that stat in the shredder. All of them came in appearances before the ninth inning; as we've discussed in the past, these are misleading outcomes. A non-closing reliever will often be given a chance to blow a save but no real chance to complete that same save. So any blown opportunity before the ninth inning has to be treated differently, or perhaps not considered at all.

Onto the next bullpen on fire. Let's be careful out there.

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The long-running sportswriter code says that you don't root for teams, you root for stories. And with that in mind, I'll openly admit I'm pulling for Boston outfielder Daniel Nava. If he sticks with the Red Sox, they could make a movie out of this guy's life.

The unheralded 29-year-old outfielder landed in Boston last week and he's been a factor in all five games since then. Nava is off to a 7-for-12 start, with six runs, a homer, and six RBIs. And more impressively, he's been impossible to keep off base: six walks, .750 OBP. He's even been plunked by a couple of pitches. The discerning eye is something he's always had, as you can see through his minor-league career (.317/.414/.496 over six seasons).

If you've never heard of Nava, it's with good reason. There's no pedigree here, no buzzy prospect file to discuss. The 5-foot-10 switch hitter was invited to walk onto the Santa Clara baseball as a teenager but didn't make the cut - he eventually settled in as team manager. And when the price of tuition got out of reach, Nava eventually left school and settled in at a junior college.

That's when the story gets interesting: Nava blossomed at JC and eventually he made it back to Santa Clara, this time on a full athletic scholarship. Nava turned into a collegiate star but didn't get drafted, so he had to start over again in professional ball, working his way up from the absolute bottom.

When Nava made a splash playing independent league baseball in 2007, the Red Sox bought his rights for the princely sum of $1. Basically he was brought in to be an organizational player, roster depth for the minors. You don't expect this type of prospect to ever make it to the major leagues, a 25-year-old non-pedigree outfielder. He consistently produced in the bush leagues over the next few seasons (look at the slash lines, they're impressive) but Nava still didn't seem to have a legitimate MLB future. Too old, some scouts thought. Not a pro body, others concluded.

Injuries forced Nava into Boston's outfield for 60 games back in 2010. He didn't show a lick of power (other than a first-pitch grand slam in his debut) and he was reluctant to run, but his batting eye showed up (19 walks, .351 OBP). He's never been a part of Boston's preseason plans, in any year.

The Red Sox have plenty of big names on their outfield roster. If Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury weren't hurt right now - and if Boston weren't a desperate ballclub - Nava would probably still be in the minors, toiling away anonymously. Heck, the Red Sox were willing to recycle Marlon Byrd from the Cubs before they gave Nava a shot to play.

Nava's first four games came against right-handed pitching, but he stuck in the lineup Monday against lefty Jason Vargas. The production kept coming: Nava cranked a homer and walked twice. This could be a story with a very short shelf life, but Bobby Valentine doesn't have a choice: he needs to keep Nava in the lineup until the streak peters out. Heck, I don't know why Valentine doesn't let Nava lead off - an OBP machine is the perfect fit for the No. 1 slot. But if you wait around in this life for Bobby Valentine to do the smart or logical thing, you're not going to get anywhere. Let's just move on.

Nava is unowned in 97 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Again, this is a short-leash player, and someone who could be on the bench (or in the minors) by the end of the week if things don't fall his way. When a ballclub hands you uniform No. 66, they're not paying homage to Mario Lemieux: they're making a public statement about what they think of you. But perhaps Boston will some around to the value in Nava's underrated bat and keen eye, and maybe they'll keep giving him work for a while. In some deeper mixed leagues, any semi-regular on offense has value.

Your move, stat chaser. While you consider a possible addition here, we flip back to our series on the Decline of Western Civilization, Part 10: The Closer Years.

When you add up all the events from Monday, Frank Francisco probably comes out even. On the plus side: he was given a vote of confidence from manager Terry Collins, and he nailed down New York's 3-1 victory over Milwaukee. But Francisco's outing was another shaky one, and he might not have that many lives left as the man in the ninth.

Francisco inherited a three-run lead for his assignment, so there was plenty of wiggle room. Good thing, because the Brewers quickly assembled a rally. Ryan Braun singled and stole second, and scored two batters later on Corey Hart's single. Absent-minded Aramis Ramirez (his mental error in the last of the eighth — typical for him — gave the Mets a gift insurance run) grounded out in the middle of that, and all three men hit the ball sharply.

When Tyler Green followed with a walk (on a borderline 3-2 pitch), Francisco was probably one more misstep away from being yanked. By this point Jon Rauch was throwing in the bullpen, warming furiously. But Francisco rallied and put out the fire, getting a called third strike on Brooks Conrad (why Conrad never offered at the belt-high fastball, I'll never understand) and a soft lineout from George Kotteras to end the game.

Francisco's season-long problems were evident in this appearance. He didn't seem to trust his fastball - and it sure looked hittable - and he had trouble locating his off-speed pitches. He's specifically struggled against left-handed batters this year (.361/.455/.591); maybe Milwaukee didn't have the best challenges for Francisco in this area, but other clubs will present sterner challenges. I'll be surprised if we don't see a messy landing from Francisco at some point later in the week, maybe during the weekend series at Toronto. I'm not cashing in my Rauch speculation play yet.

When Henry Rodriguez throws strikes, almost no one can hit him (okay, except for you, Votto). When Oh Henry loses his control, you wonder how he gets anyone out.

Every Rodriguez meltdown turns into a spectacular failure of sorts, and Monday night is another case in point. Rodriguez walked the bases loaded on 21 pitches (just eight strikes) against San Diego, forcing Davey Johnson to make a change. Lefty Sean Burnett sealed the game with a tidy double-play grounder, so the Nats walked off the field happily. But Rodriguez's leash can't be particularly long right now.

Johnson has already come out and said Rodriguez is still his closer (though a Tuesday rest is imminent), and maybe the skipper deserves some of Monday's blame anyway. Rodriguez pitched in the two previous games and four of the last six entering Monday, so fatigue may have been an issue. Why tax your closer to hold a three-run lead against the Padres, of all teams? Why let Jerome Holtzman run your life like this, skip?

When you add it all up, Rodriguez has been terrible in four of his last nine appearances, dating back to Wild Pitch Palooza at Los Angeles on April 28. Be open minded to other Washington relievers, because the Nats are contenders now and they can't futz around if a closer is handing away ballgames. Assuming Tyler Clippard sticks in the eighth, we have to consider lefty Burnett (0.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP over 10 innings) and righty Craig Stammen (1.29 ERA, 0.86 WHIP over 21 innings) as short-term closing possibilities. And with their strong numbers, they're worth owning in a lot of mixed leagues anyway. Stammen is currently owned in four percent of Yahoo! leagues, and Burnett trades at three percent.

It's been an interesting up-and-down prospect career for Rockies lefty Christian Friedrich. He was one of those need-to-know prospects back in 2009 and 2010 (at one point Baseball America considered him the No. 33 prospect in the game), but two stalled years at Double-A Tulsa (and ERAs over 5) put a kibosh on the buzz.

Maybe it's time to get excited again. Friedrich made the jump to Triple-A this spring (after a vigorous off-season of training with Cliff Lee) and turned in five impressive starts (3.00 ERA, four walks, 27 strikeouts), prompting a call to Colorado. He's made two starts on the road in pitcher-friendly parks, posting 13 sterling innings (11 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 17 K). Have a look at the video from Monday's turn at San Francisco — I'm sure you'll be impressed.

The rookie will soon be introduced to the facts of life in the majors; he's at Coors Field this weekend (although it's against Seattle) and he'll probably work in Cincinnati after that. That's a long way from Petco Park and AT&T Park. But with the strikeout potential Friedrich possesses, we at least have to consider him in the mixed-league world. He's currently owned in a modest seven percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Speed Round: It's a good thing the Dodgers have that big lead in the NL West, because Matt Kemp (hamstring) landed on the DL. With Kemp and others out of the mix, catcher A.J. Ellis moved up to fifth in the lineup Monday. … A vision problem forced Freddie Freeman to the bench in the middle of Monday's game. Apparently it's a slight corneal abrasion, and he's listed as day-to-day. … Mark Teixeira homers, Yankees fans boo him anyway . . . Elliot Johnson is having a fun month in Tampa (.333, two homers, four steals) and is a nice short-term roto rental. You can play him at second or short. … Rickie Weeks (wrist) should be back in action Tuesday, making outs for the Brewers. … If the Angels bat Alberto Callaspo sixth, do we really have to take them seriously? The punchless Halos were blanked for the eighth time in 31 games Monday. Arcade favorite Josh Reddick homered for Oakland. … Eric Stults has been designated for assignment, over the protests of Cameron Crow and Jerry Maguire. … Bryce Harper hit his first of many big-league homers Monday. Bully for him. I still like the idea of trading him now; today is often underrated in roto leagues, tomorrow is often overrated (this is a recording). … Chris Young (shoulder) has started a rehab assignment and isn't far away from rejoining the Diamondbacks. The sooner the better — that floundering team is already 9.5 games behind the Dodgers. … The Red Sox have won four games in a row, setting things up for Josh Beckett against Seattle on Tuesday. Valentine thinks Beckett might have been tipping his pitches in the shelling last week against Cleveland, although that's the sort of coach speak that's regularly offered up when a pitcher struggles. What's the sign for a "please crush me" fastball? … Rafael Soriano closed up for the Yanks, in part because David Robertson has a sore left side. Robertson will get an MRI on Tuesday. … The White Sox had a tidy finish to their 7-5 victory over Detroit: Hector Santiago worked the seventh, Matt Thornton pitched the eighth, and Addison Reed was on for the ninth. It's encouraging to see Reed get a key assignment one day after his six-run meltdown. But just when you think you have a read on this club, Robin Ventura breaks out the 12-to-6 curveball. My endorsement, with some trepidation, remains with Reed for now.

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Catchers are important. Without them, you're looking at a ridiculous amount of passed balls.

The ranks to follow illustrate how I'd attack the attack the catcher position if I entered a fresh draft today. To be clear, "attack" is probably the wrong word: I normally go cheap at this spot, especially in one-catcher league. But there are 1,000 ways to get to where we want to go.

Normal rules and disclaimers apply. Assume a 5x5 scoring rotisserie system. Anyone on the DL is ineligible for this list: the value of injured players varies greatly from format to format. I reserve the right to tweak this list as the day goes along. Bring your smartest debate to the comments; win the discussion, win the rank.

$21 Mike Napoli
$20 Carlos Santana
$20 Matt Wieters
$17 Buster Posey
$17 Brian McCann
$17 Yadier Molina
$16 Jesus Montero

I don't think anyone expected Mike Napoli to keep last year's surprising batting average, but he's tied to the best offense in the majors (by far) and he hasn't hit an Arlington spike yet (his OPS is 138 points higher on the road). A very safe place to park your money . . . The "on pace" game tends to be a waste of time more often than not, but just for grins, I'll mention that Yadier Molina is on pace for new career highs in all the counting stats (runs, homers, RBIs, steals). And even when the dog days of summer kick in, you can still figure on him playing six times a week, no matter what. When you add in his elite defense, he might be the most underrated player in baseball . . . It's far too early in Jesus Montero's career to make strong assumptions on anything, but let's note that he's posted a .373/.400/.686 line when catching this year (14 games), as opposed to a .183/.203/.239 washout when he's asked to DH. Let's also note that he hasn't been a defensive disaster behind the plate, as some were expecting. Montero was a better hitter against righties in his minor-league days, but thus far he's crushing lefties just fine, thank you. … Remember when Uncle Buck slotted Matt Wieters in the No. 8 position for most of the opening quarter last year? Good times. Wieters is locked into the No. 5 slot this year (and even that is probably too low; I'd bat him third or fourth). Wieters is also picking up DH at-bats this year when he's not playing; he's collected four starts at that position thus far in 2012, after three all of last year. In other words, pump up the volume — and get ready for some juicy counting stats.

$14 Joe Mauer
$13 Ryan Doumit
$12 Miguel Montero
$11 Carlos Ruiz
$11 Alex Avila
$10 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
$9 A.J. Pierzynski
$8 Jonathan Lucroy

Time for the monthly argument with the Joe Mauer Sympathizers. Batting average, check. Zesty OBP, check (but remember, these are 5x5 ranks, not hybrid ranks). Winning smile and great hair, always. But Mauer's power remains on back order (one piddly homer, .387 slugging), and the Twins have the worst offense in the American League (116 runs) . . . Ryan Doumit's best moments thus far, interestingly enough, have come at DH (and his numbers fall through the floor when he's asked to catch). I know, the samples are all small, but just have a look.

As for Miguel Montero, where did this strikeout problem come from? His K-rate is through the roof, and his swinging-strike number is a ridiculous 14 percent. Maybe it's time for the Snakes to admit Montero needs a dedicated platoon caddy: left-handed pitching has owned him since the 2010 season.

$7 J.P. Arencibia
$6 Schroeder
$5 A.J. Ellis
$4 Nick Hundley
$3 Ramon Hernandez
$3 Kurt Suzuki
$3 Russell Martin
$2 Jesus Flores

While A.J. Ellis's walk total clearly gets a boost from hitting eighth in the NL (he's been passed intentionally five times, and probably pitched around here and there), he still deserves credit for his discerning eye. A .462 OBP is impressive anywhere you can get it, and we also should note that Ellis has drawn 16 walks in 55 career at-bats out of the No. 7 slot. Ellis also has a .384 career OBP with the bases empty, which might be the best measure of his on-base skills. I suspect a more modern manager like Joe Maddon would consider Ellis for the top of the order (remember what Maddon did with John Jaso a few years ago), but Don Mattingly doesn't strike me as a progressive thinker, so we're stuck with the Dee Gordon Out Parade in the leadoff spot . . . Jesus Flores might pop a few homers for the Nats (he has 17 homers in 699 career at-bats), but otherwise he doesn't bring much to the table (.231/.273/.256). Washington is going to miss Wilson Ramos dearly . . . Schroeder gets kicked up an extra buck or two because he has to deal with Lucy Van Pelt all the time.

$1 Ryan Hanigan
$1 John Buck
$1 Geovany Soto
$1 Wilin Rosario
$1 Josh Thole
$1 Devin Mesoraco
$1 Hector Sanchez
$0 Yorvit Torrealba
$0 George Kottaras
$0 John Jaso
$0 Jason Castro
$0 Rod Barajas
$0 Jose Molina

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by in General

Letting go of the past is difficult.

Owners burned previously by a high draft pick often act like grumpy old men. The mere mention of said player boils the blood leading the enraged to embark on an endless rant of disgust. Most stubbornly, the hate harbored by these victims creates long-holding grudges. Even entertaining the idea of investing their heart and soul into the same steamy pile of worthlessness, no matter how ripe the situation, ranks alongside death by clown torture, a frightening proposition.

Sadly, this is how millions living in Fantasyland feel about Ryan Mathews.

Roughly two weeks ago in what some are deeming the "Suckiest Mock Team Ever Assembled," yours truly selected the controversial rusher with the fifth overall pick in a standard 14-team draft. Normally commenters beneath Arcade entries criticize small grammatical errors, attempt to start fruitless "Fire (Insert Author)" campaigns or ramble about senseless drivel simply because they have the space to do so. However, in last week's mock recap (See full draft results here), the gallery focused its attention almost exclusively on my idiotic devotion to the alleged unreliable back. A taste:

Joseph C's perspective on Mathews is very fair. The first round is supposed to be about minimizing risk. But who says the Chargers workhorse can't be amazing? Below in bold are four common beliefs why Mathews is doomed to fail followed by my counterargument.

T.O.'s ego is more durable than Mathews

By far this is the strongest argument anyone can make for avoiding the hard-Charger, but not necessarily the brightest. Since football is a contact sport that requires exceptional mental and physical toughness, any running back is susceptible to injury. History provides proof. Of the 23 backs that busted over the past five seasons (Rushers drafted as RB1s in 12-team leagues that failed to finish inside the RB top-15) a whopping 14 or 60.8-percent failed to live up to expectation due to serious injury (missing at least three games).

The majority may feel Mathews would tear a tendon wrestling a stuffed animal, but last year he was surprisingly sturdy. Though bothered by the occasional nick or scrape, he gutted out 14 starts and grew stronger as the calender flipped. During his final five games of the season he averaged a sizable 21.4 touches and 15.6 fantasy points per game, an output that ranked eighth among rushers during that span.

Recall, without mandated OTAs due to the lockout, he entered camp last year flabby and out of shape which paved the way for Mike Tolbert to wrest away early season touches. Determined not to make the same mistake twice, he's hit the weight room hard and flipped monster-truck tires this offseason.

Mathews' numbers will suffer without Vincent Jackson stretching defenses

The absence of the enigmatic receiver won't negatively impact the plowshare's value as much as people think. Remember, with Tolbert now toiling in Carolina, Mathews will be Norv Turner's No. 1 option in a still explosive Chargers offense. Without question he will net roughly 22-25 touches per game. Part-time halfback/fullback Le'Ron McClain, Curtis Brinkley and seventh-round rookie Edwin Baker are distant figures in the review mirror. His integral role as a receiving back only supports the claim he's a top-tier RB1. Last year, he reeled in two fewer passes (50) than Matt Forte. In PPR formats, he's indispensable.

And let's not disrespect Robert Meachem, who Turner feels will flourish under his guidance. The wideout is more than capable of taking pressure off the running game. During his four-year stint with New Orleans he averaged a robust 16.1 yards per catch. The step from V-Jax to the former Saint really isn't that far down. Add in the return of Malcom Floyd, Vincent Brown and Antonio Gates along with the acquisition of Eddie Royal, and Philip Rivers has plenty of useful weapons to choose from. Wide running lanes could be plentiful.

Because of Mathews' fumbling problems, someone is bound to pilfer goal-line carries

McClain could poach a TD or two next season, but undoubtedly Mathews will be leaned on near the pylons. Most are convinced he secretes butter naturally from his hands, but he lost the same number of pills (two) as sure-handed rushers Marshawn Lynch and Ray Rice.

And don't forget Tolbert is no longer in the picture. A season ago, the rolling beer keg bested Mathews 36-to-19 in red-zone touches. With Tolbert gone, the Bolt should hog goal-line carries. Only five backs — Michael Turner, Arian Foster, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy and Rice — registered 50-plus RZ carries last fall. This year, Mathews will easily eclipse that mark.

San Diego's offensive line is fair at best

This is the most laughable claim of the bunch. Approximately five-months away from opening week no one truly knows how rigid/flimsy an offensive line may be. Tennessee' O-line is a prime example. Entering last year, the Titans' trench warriors were consistently ranked near the top of the league in run-blocking, but, evident in CJ2LAME's woeful campaign, they couldn't open a hole for a cockroach. Sure, San Diego's line could struggle, but it could also perform brilliantly. It's way too early to make concrete assertions.

On paper, the Chargers return a strong nucleus up front. Down the homestretch in '11, the unit executed well in pass protection and created substantial wiggle room for Mathews. Even if it depreciates, the incumbent should electrocute the competition. He checked in with the fourth-highest yards-after-contact per attempt tally (3.2) among qualifying rushers last year. Simply, the man can grind out yards whether by ground or air.

Bottom Line: Mathews will be a consensus first-round pick even in unchallenging formats. Those who believe otherwise are only kidding themselves. Because of his growing workload, expected prominent goal-line role and versatility, any risks associated with the RB are outweighed by the possible enormous rewards. Speaking as CEO of Team Huevos, Mathews finishes as a top-five back in 2012.

Mark the Noise's words.

Fearless Forecast (15 games): 258 carries, 1,238 rushing yards, 60 receptions, 511 receiving yards, 13 total touchdowns

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What's the best present for a Mom that has everything? Get her an at-bat against scuffling Mets reliever Frank Francisco. Mom will surely line a double in the gap — if Francisco ever gets around to throwing her a strike.

Francisco technically didn't get a blown save in Sunday's ugly loss to the Marlins, but it was a meltdown just the same. He was asked to protect a two-run lead in the ninth and couldn't record an out: Emilio Bonifacio tripled, John Buck walked and Greg Dobbs singled. In short order, the Marlins had a run in and the tying tally just 90 feet away.

Not content to merely unravel on the mound, Francisco then took dead aim at home plate umpire Todd Tichenor, storming to the plate and yelling some choice words (the men had to be separated). Only seven of Francisco's 15 pitches were strikes, but it looked like his complaints were reaching the intended target. Tichenor promptly gave Francisco the boot, and the Marlins wound up finishing the rally against journeyman reliever Manny Acosta. (The game ended on a grand slam from Giancarlo Stanton that probably landed on a beach in Bermuda somewhere. Absolutely crushed. Mercy.)

When you add Sunday's disaster to the ledger, Francisco now shows an 8.56 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP. He does offer 15 strikeouts over 13.3 innings, but he's also walked seven batters. He's been scored on in seven of his last 12 appearances, and he's suffered three losses on the year. How much evidence do the Mets need before they try something else in the ninth? (Perhaps manager Terry Collins is getting close: he says he'll address the closing situation Monday.)

If and when Collins is ready to shake things up, decent options are available. Jon Rauch worked a perfect eighth inning Sunday (one strikeout, nothing out of the infield), trimming his ERA to 2.93 and his WHIP to 0.98. He carries an impressive resume for the position: closing experience, intimidating height, a frightening neck tattoo. Bobby Parnell is another name to consider, off to a good start in 2012 (2.25 ERA, 16 strikeouts against three walks). He recorded six saves for the Mets over the last two months of 2011. Parnell didn't pitch Sunday, after working the two previous games.

Heath Bell grabbed a vulture win from Miami's heroics, despite allowing two runs of his own. It was standard work for any closer: tie score at home, top of the ninth. The host club can no longer record a save by that point. I still like Steve Cishek as a speculation hold in medium and deeper mixed leagues, where blood is shed for every handshake.

Place your bets, save chasers. Rauch is owned in just seven percent of Yahoo! leagues, while Parnell currently trades at two percent. They're out there, if you're ready to point and click. And if you want to open your heart to a spotty American League reliever, Brian Fuentes (named Oakland's closer on Saturday) is available in about 75 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

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by in General

Tonight, with the Angels/Rangers clash the backdrop, tag-team partners Brandon Funston and Brad Evans host the mother of all fantasy chats.

Due to the bevy of torn ACLs, busted bullpens and Josh Hamilton moonshots that have impacted Fantasyland, questions should be aplenty. If you have any pressing inquiries or are simply fed up hanging out with your family, sneak away and join the hour-long party. Anything MLB, NFL or hot moms-related (strongly encouraged) is fair game.

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