by in General

For the most part, Daniel Straily's debut was a successful one in Oakland. He worked six crisp innings against the Blue Jays on Friday (5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K), showed a good mix of pitches. Like a lot of the current Athletics starters, he's doubtful to ever be a front-line pitcher, but he might be good enough to settle in as a No. 3 someday, perhaps a low No. 2. There's impressive depth in this organization.

Alas, Straily's debut had two missing elements to it that left roto players wanting. For one thing, he didn't get the win: Ryan Cook made a three-run mess in the ninth. And most Yahoo! players couldn't access Straily in their game, since he wasn't added to the player pool yet.

I know a lot of gamers are frustrated by that fact of life, and I've read your comments on the matter. Try to be respectful on this matter, amigos; you don't want to shoot the messenger, for one thing, and I'm always going to relay reasonable ideas and suggestions to the powers that be. I want to help whenever I can.

I hope most of you can see the perfect-storm elements to the Straily case. He had a mediocre season at Class-A last year and wasn't on anyone's radar entering 2012. Go back and look at whatever prospect list or guru you prefer: Baseball America had him buried in their ranks. Baseball Prospectus didn't put him in their annual. Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, Rob Steingall, none of these guys were discussing or promoting Straily last winter.

Heck, even Peter Brand missed on Straily. The A's selected the Oregon-bred righty in the 24th round back in 2009.

It's not practical for the Yahoo! game to have every minor-league player in the database to open the season. Consider for a second just how overwhelming the minor-leagues are; it's a gigantic landscape. And for the game to be fair to everyone in-season, we really don't want to have out-of-nowhere additions to the player pool; no one should be able to add a new commodity simply because they were the first gamer online to notice the random, unspecific insertion to the player pool.

Everyone at Yahoo! constantly wants to improve, all of us. Writers, editors, designers, customer care, we can always get better. I'm not going to engage any further debate in this issue - I don't see what the point of it is, since I'm not a game designer and nothing's going to change in 2012 - but if you have a good idea, I'll try to make sure it's advanced to the next level.

That's all I can do.

(Okay, I can do one other thing, here's your preview to the Straily Shuffle-Up price: something in the $6-8 range. You love him in the big ballpark and obviously he's been money in the minors this year, but we have to worry about a potential innings shutdown, not to mention those big name pitchers that are on the mend in Oakland. Full starting pitchers will be out at some point this weekend, be on the lookout for that. And yes, I trust Straily for next week's home start against the Angels.)

Ah, those stupid thumb injuries. The Injury Gods took a shot at Emilio Bonifacio on Friday, giving him a jammed thumb that will keep him out for 2-3 weeks. Given that Bonifacio's game is all about speed, not power, perhaps this injury won't impact him as much as it might a slugging type. But with the Marlins 10,000 leagues from playoff contention, we can't be sure the team will opt for a quick return. As always, I suggest you take a realistic, if not slightly pessimistic, view of this injured player.

In the meantime, let's keep streaming against these fish whenever we can. It already was the worst offense in the majors with Bonifacio. Some of that will be lessened if and when Giancarlo Stanton returns, but we all know a train wreck when we see one. Jon Niese is the only Stream Police starter I see up against Miami over the next week (though a few universal arms come into play), but there will be others.

Jacoby Ellsbury is another rabbit we're worrying about, through his issues are far less severe than Bonifacio's. Ellsbury has a sore leg and won't go Saturday. The Boston center fielder been an ordinary player in the second half (.280-11-1-3-3, over 20 games), again underscoring the idea that you shouldn't expect immediate miracles when name players return from long-term injuries. Heck, I know I priced him too highly in the last outfield Shuffle Up, too.

Are we sure this isn't all just Bobby Valentine's fault? Okay, let's move on.

I'm not going to give you a long Tyler Colvin piece for a while — that tale has been told — but I will let you know that Colvin might have a full-time gig of his own fairly soon. Michael Cuddyer is dealing with an oblique injury, and it's possible he might need a DL stint.

Now you never know what Jim Tracy might do, so Colvin comes with no guarantees. But if the team plays him and leaves him alone, this could be a $15-17 bat the rest of the way. Lots of strikeouts, sure, but the pop is legit and the average shouldn't hurt you. Dare to dream.

This isn't really a big roto note, but I'd like to thank the Orioles for bringing Lew Ford and Nate McLouth to the majors over the last week. Where was this service when I was a kid? Bombo Rivera could have played forever.

I'm off to Comerica Park for the Tigers and Indians. That guy in the upper deck with the Michigan cap who looks like me … is probably me. Good luck with your stat-grabbing Saturday night.

Tags: Colvin, Daniel Straily, Emilio Bonifacio, , , , , Jacoby Ellsbury, , , Straily, ,
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by in General

I was on the Tyler Colvin bandwagon, sure. Heck, I might have been driving the vehicle, collecting tickets, barking out landmarks and instructions. I enjoyed his mad run in early July and I implored fantasy owners to grab him in most formats. By land and by sea, by all means of social media, the campaign was on. (I even convinced one valued friend to pick up Colvin, making my pitch at the end of a phone call. That's so 1997.)

And I was there when the stock crashed in the second part of July, when Colvin hit a brief slump and eventually landed on the bench. I took the losses, answered the inquiries, shook my head and wondered what might have been. That wistful theme came back Wednesday night, when Colvin stroked three hits (including a pair of triples) in Colorado's loss to St. Louis.

But at the end of it all, I don't regret any of the analysis tied directly to the player. I still view Colvin as an intriguing 26-year-old post-hype kid, someone who quickly fell out of favor in Chicago after a couple of bad months (and it was partially an excused absence, considering that fluky bat injury he suffered). If Colvin ever lands a solidified job in Colorado, I'm interested. The player instincts were on the mark here.

Alas, there was an X-factor I knew about but didn't take seriously enough. Jim Tracy, Colorado manager. The source of all roto pain.

At times every fantasy manager falls into the trap: you project playing time and role assignment the way you want it to shake down, underselling what the team might have in mind. We see Jamaal Charles going off as a part-timer in 2010 and, naturally, we demand more playing time (this happened regularly with Pierre Thomas, too). We see Aroldis Chapman throwing pellets and we expect him to get pushed into the rotation. We see a Washington running back we like and we insist Mike Shanahan, surely, will see it our way and stop jerking everyone around. We see a middle-relief hero who's untouchable, and we wonder why he isn't moving ahead of the soft-tossing closer, taking over the handshakes.

There's a lesson here that most of you know, but it's worth repeating and relearning: we have to analyze the coaches and managers along with the players in this numbers racket. As much as we'd love for all coaching decisions to come down to benevolence and fairness, the real world doesn't always run like that. Some managers fall in love with veterans even when it's nearly impossible to defend. Some coaches favor platoons and player competition, no matter how dynamic one option might look. Some pilots are patient when a high-visibility player hits a slump, while others might make a change with the slightest inclination. The styles are all over the map.

Tracy already had an established rep as a knee-jerk reaction manager and a veteran-favoring skipper, so it's no great shock that Colvin fell from grace as quickly as he did. He shouldn't care that Colvin slumped for a week and a half, that's something that happens to every ballplayer now and then. The kid has all of 11 starts since the All-Star break, and now he's back behind Todd Helton on the depth chart.

To be fair, the Rockies are in a bind with the Helton situation. The lefty swinger is 38 and in the midst of a cliff season: you can't carry a .238/.337/.398 stick at the corner. It's a good thing Coors Field has been there to break the fall; Helton is hitting .208 with nine RBIs on the road. There's nothing to see here any more.

Unfortunately, Helton is still the face of the franchise, a locally-beloved player who's logged 16 years with the team. Coors Field has Helton-themed food stands. The borderline Hall of Famer is still under contract through the 2013 season. It's a sticky situation when the branded star becomes the elephant in the room; the name still carries respect, but the numbers don't.

It doesn't take a weatherman to tell how the wind blows. The team is a 37-65 train wreck, hopelessly out of all playoff contention. It's time to see what your young players can do. It's time to shift into evaluation mode. It's time to make the future your focus.

Fitting Colvin into the lineup shouldn't be hard. He can play all three outfield spots and he can play first base. Although he didn't hit lefties well in Chicago, he's carrying a .293/.311/.534 slash against them in limited time this year. He has the third-highest OPS on the roster this year (among players with 100 or more at-bats), and ranks second in home OPS and second in road OPS. He's one of the team's best offensive players, and yet he's still seem as a part-time guy by the man making the decisions.

If I ran the club, I'd use Helton just once or twice a week at the most. Let Colvin play first base or right field (depending on where you want Michael Cuddyer). See what the 26-year-old prospect is capable of.

Alas, the Rockies don't seem to have much of a plan right now. They just reorganized the responsibilities of GM Dan O'Dowd; it sure sounds like a demotion to me. They only moved one veteran at the trading deadline, Marco Scutaro; they wanted to ship closer Rafael Betancourt somewhere but nothing went down. I'll be shocked if Tracy is still here at the beginning of next season. Winter changes appear imminent, in many areas.

So it looks like I can still hold onto my Tyler Colvin dream (or my Colvin delusion), call it what you will. I just need a new regime (that shares my view of the world) to take over.

Everyone has a rant inside of them, brewing somewhere. There is mine. Toss around your Colorado thoughts and I'll add some bullets shortly.

Yes, the Rangers have a loaded lineup. You bet, the Athletics have a nice pitching rotation. But sometimes a talented youngster merits a call-up from the minors on talent and results alone, no matter if there's an obvious opening or not. With that in mind, let's talk about the two buzzy callups on the docket: Texas 3B Mike Olt and Oakland SP Dan Straily.

Olt's making a double-jump, after putting together 95 superb games at Double-A Frisco (.288/.398/.579). The 23-year-old corner (and occasional outfielder) was tabbed as the No. 43 prospect by Baseball America into this year, and he was a sandwich pick back in 2010. Are the Rangers finally ready to marginalize Michael Young? Is Mitch Moreland going to lose playing time? Talk to us, Ron Washington. I can't imagine the Rangers would make this move without planning on giving Olt a chance to play a fair amount, but it's not my decision to make.

Straily showed unpolished talent at a handful of Class-A stops last year, but the 23-year-old righty has hit the fast track in 2012. He's made 22 starts between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a 2.60 ERA and 0.969 WHIP over 138.1 electric innings. The strikeout rate grabs your attention: he's whiffing 11.4 men per nine innings, and that clip was static at both levels. The A's will start him Friday at home against Toronto, with Travis Blackley shifting to the bullpen.

In most Yahoo! leagues, we have to play the waiting game on Olt and Straily (I hear you, Homer: the waiting game sucks). You'll see these guys play before you have to make a waiver decision. I'll give you my on-field impressions in Twitter and in this space, and I might put Straily on the primary set for Friday night's slate.

• The buy-low case for Cameron Maybin has been open for several weeks, even if his output numbers haven't been supporting the story. His walk rate is up this year, strikeouts are down, and his BABIP has collapsed by 71 points. His line-drive rate has also dipped a little bit, but nothing substantial. A wrist injury also complicated things in late July.

Perhaps things are finally clearing up for Maybin now — he's clubbed a pair of homers this week (one Thursday) and he's still a factor on the bases (20-for-24 there). Maybe it's anecdotal noise, but let's keep in mind the monster run he went on during 2011's second half (.268-44-4-19-28, and that's in a modest 63 games). Maybe you can't get him dirt cheap any longer, but this is still someone to be open-minded on. Maybin is unowned in 59 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Post-hype sleepers are the patron saint of roto success, so we should mention a word or two about Brett Wallace. The 25-year-old cornerman (he turns 26 in a few weeks) whacked a couple of homers at Milwaukee, the lone bright spots in another blowout loss for the Astros. Wallace now has a .333/.418/.646 line for his brief time in the majors this year, with four homers in 48 at-bats. He's also struck out 18 times, an obvious concern.

Houston was in no hurry to promote Wallace this summer, despite his nifty run at Triple-A (.300/.379/.506, 16 homers over 86 games). Granted, he's old for the level and we're talking about someone who has 315 games in Triple-A; grain of salt rules apply. I'd prefer to focus on the pedigree part of the story: Wallace was the 13th overall pick in 2008, and he twice appeared as a Top 40 prospect in Baseball America. Maybe he's ready to put something together. Wally Cleaver is ready to add in 98 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

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Shuffle Up: Justin Morneau, part-time power

09 Jul
2012
by in General

You should know the rules by now, but we'll offer a quick review. Today's assignment is to rank all the corner-eligible players going forward, 5x5 value for rotisserie leagues. What's happened to this point is an audition, not a stat mandate. Anyone in the minors or on the DL is not eligible for a rank; too much variance with the Optimism Parade.

Don't worry about the prices in a vacuum, just use them as tools to compare the players. And when multiple players are at the same price, they're considered even.

I welcome your intelligent disagreement at all times, but you need to back your angles up with facts. No brief rants, amigos. You're better than that. Further the conversation. And remember the golden rule of roto: a player doens't get a 10-20 percent spike in value simply because he's on your roster. They produce in spite of you, not because of you.

The 1.0 phase of any shuffle is the pre-ranks; I put them out, let them settle, have a burrito. I'll return later tonight with comments and a few changes here and there. Win the debate, you might win the rank.

I took all the catchers out, they have their own day in the sun. Ready to figure it all out? Make the jump and do some comparison shopping.

$31 Miguel Cabrera
$30 Jose Bautista
$29 Joey Votto
$27 Adrian Beltre
$27 David Wright
$26 Mark Trumbo
$25 Albert Pujols
$25 David Ortiz
$25 Edwin Encarnacion
$24 Prince Fielder

Floor is so important with premium picks, which is why Miguel Cabrera has to be at the top. … David Ortiz finally has the 1B tag, so he's no longer locking up our utility spots. … Edwin Encarnacion is tied to a dynamite offense and he's quietly swiped nine bags in 11 attempts. Even if the average regresses, this looks like a fairly safe place to park your investment.

$22 Mark Teixeira
$22 Paul Konerko
$21 Brett Lawrie
$21 Hanley Ramirez
$20 Pablo Sandoval
$19 Billy Butler
$19 Anthony Rizzo
$18 Aramis Ramirez
$18 Allen Craig
$17 Adrian Gonzalez
$17 Alex Rodriguez
$17 Michael Cuddyer
$17 David Freese
$17 Nick Swisher
$17 Mike Moustakas
$16 Martin Prado
$16 Adam Dunn
$16 Trevor Plouffe
$16 Paul Goldschmidt

Brett Lawrie has been in the leadoff slot for 31 games, shaping up this way: .305, 27 runs, four homers, 12 RBIs, three bags (in seven attempts). And very quietly, the Jays are third in the majors in runs scored. … Anthony Rizzo shortened his swing in the minors, stopped trying to pull everything, and improved against left-handed pitching. He's here to stay. … Lineup and ballpark environment keep Alex Rodriguez and Michael Cuddyer this high, though neither player has done much with the bat. … I took a lot of guff for the Adam Dunn $16 tag in the last outfield shuffle (he qualifies there too, obviously). I'm not going to debate this one, gamers. Either you see the risks here or you don't. Dunn hasn't gone out of his way to debate the rank: he's .132/.303/.264 since we had that filibuster, with two home runs in 15 games.

The Allen Craig bit has been played, too. Hey, I like him a lot, too. It's not like an $18 tag is a slap in the face. But he doesn't run, he's injury prone, and he doesn't have a clear roster position when Lance Berkman comes back. If and when these issues are smoothed over, sure, I'll push him into the $20s. And heck, Craig is only hitting .258 in the last month. Someone's getting him out.

$15 Michael Morse
$15 Eric Hosmer
$15 Freddie Freeman
$15 Ike Davis
$15 Ryan Zimmerman
$14 Ryan Howard
$14 Corey Hart
$14 Logan Morrison
$14 Tyler Colvin
$14 Pedro Alvarez
$14 Justin Morneau
$13 Will Middlebrooks
$12 Carlos Lee
$12 Michael Young
$12 Garrett Jones
$11 Howie Kendrick
$11 Mike Aviles
$11 Jed Lowrie
$11 Casey McGehee

In a perfect world we'd all have a part-time caddy for Justin Morneau, and I'm not talking about Fluff Cowan or Stevie Williams. There are some extreme splits at work here. Morneau is a masher against righties (.960 OPS, nine homers) and on the road (.856 OPS, nine homers), but it all falls apart against lefties (.124/.160/.202, two homers) and at Target Field (.221/.289/.352, two homers). At minimum, you need to make sure he's not playing against left-handed starters. And if he pushes his overall average over .260 at some point, maybe you can find someone to buy into his complete package of stats — washing yourself of the headache entirely.

Carlos Lee can still make contact, but the power left the building a while ago. His best selling point for the Marlins: he's a lot better than Gaby Sanchez. Lee will probably have respectabble run-production numbers because he'll get a decent batting slot in Miami … If you missed the Week of Tyler Colvin, please click through. I can't see how a hobbling Helton is going to block Colvin's playing time in the second half. And I wouldn't be surprised if his rank continued to rise in the second half.

Garrett Jones is one of those players who is more valuable in roto than in real life, especially if you can platoon him on your fake teams (similar to the Morneau case). Jones has a .272/.293/.528 slash against right-handed pitching, and although the OBP is downright ugly, that's not really a concern in 5x5 leagues. Worry about the categories that count — the average is fine, the pop is handy. … I know Ryan Zimmerman has been sizzling since he had the miracle cortisone, but I'm still glad I don't own him — and I still have no clue where to rank him. No one does.

$10 Kevin Youkilis
$10 Adam LaRoche
$10 Kendrys Morales
$10 Chase Headley
$10 Jim Thome*
$9 Kyle Seager
$9 Chris Davis
$9 Adam Lind
$8 Lucas Duda
$8 Chipper Jones
$8 Brandon Belt
$7 Daniel Murphy
$7 Brandon Moss
$7 Todd Frazier
$6 Bryan LaHair
$6 Jenna von Oÿ
$5 Carlos Pena
$5 Mark Reynolds
$4 Travis Hafner*

I'm hoping to be at Fenway Park next Monday, ostensibly to let Kevin Youkilis know that he's let all of us down. Okay, I'll keep that to myself. I'm there to enjoy the park and overpay for concessions. The injury risk of Fred G. Sanford keeps him at a modest price, though his value did improve simply from getting out of a toxic personal situation. … I've put Jim Thome and Travis Hafner into this mix, although neither has a position in the Yahoo! game. I still think Thome has a chance to knock 12-14 homers in the second half. …I was going to give Todd Frazier the six-dollar tag, then I kicked him up a buck because of the Sinatra walk-up music.

$3 Yonder Alonso
$3 Casey Kotchman
$2 Ryan Roberts
$2 Chris Johnson
$2 Wilson Betemit
$2 John Mayberry
$2 Jerry Hairston Jr.
$2 Jordan Pacheco
$2 Tyler Moore
$2 Chris Carter
$1 Ty Wigginton
$1 Luke Scott
$1 Chris Nelson
$1 Brandon Inge
$1 Alberto Callaspo
$1 Juan Rivera
$1 Jeff Keppinger
$0 Todd Helton
$0 Sean Rodriguez
$0 Placido Polanco
$0 Scott Rolen
$0 Jose Lopez
-$1 James Loney
-$2 Justin Smoak

Tags: , Colvin, , , , , Michael Cuddyer, , Someone, Tag, ,
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Closing Time: The Tyler Colvin Show continues

07 Jul
2012
by in General

At this point I don't think there's anything new we can say about Tyler Colvin. You're either in or you're out; you either believe or you don't. Let's give him one more push in this edition of Closing Time (most of this will be review, so skip the full lead if you prefer), and then we'll bank the case for good. You decide if you want an emerging power hitter who plays half of his game in the Mile High air.

The lanky 26-year-old slugger has been on a ballistic tear for a solid month now (.372, 10 homers, 27 RBIs), with things especially clicking this week. Colvin homered twice in Friday's win at Washington (and added a single later), with all of the strikes against all-world Stephen Strasburg. Colvin also went deep Thursday, Tuesday and Monday — all on the road, by the way — and now has a nifty .311/.339/.644 slash line with 13 homers in just 180 at-bats.

There's nothing in his front-door splits that should worry you: he's hitting lefties and righties, at Coors and out of a suitcase. Colvin's ownership tag stood at a mere two percent in Yahoo! leagues back in the middle of June; it's chased up to 25 percent now. Still some room on the bandwagon, gamers.

We've been trying to push the story along, trying to get you to jump on board. Colvin was the first lead in our June 13 Closing Time, and he was a secondary lead (with a familiar picture) in Wednesday's wrap. But the grass roots campaign was centered around social media; that's where the heaviest case was made. Sometimes you need the immediacy of Twitter.

Let's have a look back at the Colvin Tweet Initiative from the past week:

• Colvin cranked homers Monday and Tuesday, which fired up the Twitter feed: I'd like to see what Tyler Colvin could do with regular playing time. A very quiet 10 homers in 168 at-bats.

• And when the readers pushed back, I tried to keep minds open: I underestimated how much Tyler Colvin ticked off people in 2011. Still, he's 26, first-round pedigree. Too early to say he can't be good.

• While you were firing up the grill on the Fourth, the keys were tapping: Tyler Colvin unowned in 91% of Y! leagues. There's a certain Plouffiness here. Four paths into lineup, if any OF gets hurt (or Helton). Those themes were repeated (and expanded upon) in Opening Time.

• Some readers questioned Colvin on the road, but the spreadsheet backed him up: Regular Rockies who have a higher road OPS than Tyler Colvin: Rosario, Tulo, Cargo. That's it. That's the list. [And as of 7/7/12, Colvin is ahead of Cargo.]

• And then, finally, glorious Friday came around. July 6 basically morphed into Tyler Colvin Day. First came the two homers, and then the obligatory Twitter note: Two more homers for Tyler Colvin tonight. This is the Trevor Plouffe post-hype story, NL version. Last call, gamers. Go.

But the warning siren didn't stop there. We fielded a Colvin-related call on the Fantasy Freak Show (at the top of the baseball hour), instructing a listener to drop Torii Hunter and pick up Colvin. We posted a Colvin note on Roto Arcade's Facebook Page. I put out a public challenge-trade offer to Jeff Erickson on Twitter, my Fab Fab Freddie Freeman for his Colvin. Hey, I'm not afraid to sell low and buy high once in a while (especially with my team buried under 10 feet of snow), and Freeman has the finger problem anyway. Jeff quickly accepted. One more Reggie Cleveland All-Star for him, while I have to worry about the whims of Jim Tracy. We'll get to that in a minute.

My night ended with a phone conversation with a friend. Just as we were hanging up, I offered one more thing: "Do me a favor, would you? Go get that Colvin guy. I think he can help you."

To be fair, everything isn't sunshine and lollipops with the Mile High Masher. Let's quickly address some of your logical counters:

-- Yes, Colvin was terrible in 2011 (.150 average), but sometimes that happens with young players. And the Cubs pulled the plug after 206 at-bats, so it wasn't a full season.

-- Sure, Todd Helton is around — but he's also closing in on his 39th birthday (Aug. 20) and dealing with a sore hip. Helton's only seen seven at-bats this month (he's down to a sorry .239 /.333 /.404 slash), and remember Colvin can spell any of the outfielders, too. There's no way the Rockies can bench their emerging star right now.

-- Colvin doesn't have the most patient approach, though he did draw 30 walks over 358 at-bats in 2010. This year it's just eight free passes against 47 strikeouts. Those are worrisome numbers, no doubt — the .311 average is the flukiest part of this story — but the power is 100 percent real.

Bottom line, you never know when the light bulb might go on for a young, talented player. Colvin was the 13th overall pick in 2006. Coors Field speaks for itself, and the Rockies have a glorious home stretch coming after the All-Star break (15 Colorado games in 21 starts, along with a three-gamer in Arizona). Don't be locked out on Blake Street, amigos. Colvin will be in the lineup more often than not, and I love his chances to produce. A few weeks ago it was the Trevor Plouffe out-of-nowhere tour, and now it's Tyler Colvin's time in the spotlight. Buy in.

• Sergio Romo posted a 1-2-3 ninth inning — and a firm handshake — in Friday's win at Pittsburgh, but it didn't really clean up the foggy Giants bullpen much. Scuffling Santiago Casilla was considered unavailable because of a blister, and apparently he's not in immediate danger of losing his closing gig. The club still worries about Romo's ability to handle a heavy workload - he's had a history of elbow issues - and it also likes him as a right-handed specialist who can work in any number of key spots, not just the ninth.

I only see two logical paths at the moment: Casilla gets back in form and it's business as usual, or he continues to slump and forces a committee approach — with Romo getting the biggest piece of it. Hold all tickets, save chasers. I still think Romo should be owned in just about all formats no matter his role; a 0.72 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over 25 innings is absurd, and he's grabbed two wins and five saves this year even without the ninth-inning baton.

The Yankees and Red Sox played a typical AL East game at Fenway Park. The pitchers worked oh-so slowly, the batters stepped out regularly, Bob Costas went into over-context mode (man, do I miss the 1980s version of that guy), and the rotoheads picked up a bunch of offensive numbers. Josh Beckett (5 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 5 K) was mediocre in his return to action and Hiroki Kuroda struggled as well (5.2 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 6 R, 1 BB, 3 K), par for the course in this hitter-friendly yard. The Yankees ultimately secured a 10-8 win through bullpen work, though credit Joe Girardi here: he went with Rafael Soriano for a four-out save.

As I've said on Twitter and in this blog space a few times in the past 24 hours, I'm not trusting any starting pitcher in this series. Phil Hughes has a dreadful history at Fenway Park (9.00 ERA, 1.91 WHIP) and I can't ignore that, no matter that it's over a mere eight appearances (four in relief). Franklin Morales is out of his routine after Bobby Valentine played the Oakland switcheroo game. Don't be a hero, gamer. This is not the place to take chances.

Before we leave the Back Bay, your obligatory Red Sox injury update: Jacoby Ellsbury (shoulder) is doing fine so far and has moved up to Triple-A, and Clay Buchholz should be ready for a game of bocci rehab start Sunday. But Carl Crawford has hit a snag: he's being pulled back from his rehab assignment due to a mild groin strain, and it's also believed that his elbow will bother him all season. Just five more years of this, and then Crawford's a free man after 2017. Dustin Pedroia (thumb) says he doesn't need surgery, but he's expected to miss at least three weeks.

Speed Round: Ryan Dempster (shoulder) will return to action Sunday at the Mets. I don't like to start anyone right off the DL, so in roto formats, this is a pass for me. … Ryan Howard had a solid debut for the Phillies, going 2-for-4 with a double. He will enjoy taking his hacks next week, when the Phillies head to Coors Field. Don't be concerned about Howard not playing Saturday, that was a planned absence in advance. … Frank Francisco (oblique) might be ready to start a rehab assignment as early as Wednesday. If Francisco can prove he's 100 percent healthy, he'll get the Mets closing gig back (per Terry Collins). … Although the Padres say Andrew Cashner doesn't have any significant elbow damage, his lat injury will keep him out about a month. The club plans to keep Cashner in the starting rotation when he returns. … If Justin Smoak doesn't rebound quickly he could be sent down to Triple-A Tacoma, the Seattle Times speculates. He's carrying a .202/.266/.329 line around (though he does have 11 homers), and he's had a difficult time with pitch recognition (especially on sliders). The paper also wonders if Dustin Ackley's job might be in jeopardy. "It's just been Groundhog Day too many times for me," manager Eric Wedge said. "We're not going to keep watching people do the same thing over and over again and live with it."… Chris Carter has received sporadic at-bats for the Athletics but he's made the most of them: he's 6-for-12 with three homers, including the titanic walk-off blast Friday. He was a hyped prospect for several years (making the Baseball America Top 100 list in 2009, 2010 and 2011), and he's still just 25. That said, Oakland has Brandon Moss handling first right now and there are plenty of DH types on this roster. In anything short of a very deep league, Carter is a name to monitor, not someone to grab right now. . … Giancarlo Stanton (knee) is scheduled to play Saturday, a very encouraging sign. I still think the Marlins are crazy if they let him participate in the meaningless exhibitions Monday and Tuesday. . … Anthony Rizzo stroked a homer and three other hits against the Mets and looks terrific; a .295-45-15-50 second half would not surprise me at all.

Tags: , , Colvin, Colvin Tweet Initiative, , , , road, Sergio Romo,
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Opening Time: Roy Oswalt throws BP; Dan Haren discloses back problem

04 Jul
2012
by in General

All holiday bullets, all the time. Refill your drink and let's figure out this game together.

The Roy Oswalt Revival Tour has been a massive flop so far, no matter that he's 2-1. His first turn was successful mostly because of the opponent (the Rockies generally can't hit outside of Coors), and since then he's been hammered for 26 hits and 16 runs (14 earned) against two legitimate matchups, the Tigers and White Sox. Big-league hitters are batting .422 against Oswalt, and he carries a 7.79 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. The White Sox hit three homers into the bleachers against the aging righty (he turns 35 at the end of August).

Now I understand how the Regression Police might debate Oswalt's stats: he's been unlucky, yada yada yada. As you should know by now, all outlier ERAs and outlier batting averages come with outlier luck stats. In the case of Oswalt, he's allowing a .500 BABIP and he's under the league norms in strand rate (63 percent) and HR/FB rate (13.6 percent). If you want to talk yourself into an Oswalt case going forward, there's a path that leads you there: his FIP stands at 4.16, his xFIP is at 3.76, and he does have the K/BB ratio in a good place. His fastball isn't the same as it was during the Houston heyday, but he's hitting the gun at 91.7, basically his number from last year.

I'm going to sit this one out; if you go on the Oswalt hunt, I'm not there with you. He's allowing line drives 28.4 percent of the time, which tells you something about his location. He's never pitched full-time in the American League before. His career numbers in Arlington were already messy, and those ratios were largely built from his salad days. I'll be shocked if Oswalt's ERA is under 4 the rest of the way, and in today's pitching-dominated world, you shouldn't take on this sort of risk. You need more safety from your back-end starters, and heck, you'd like more upside, too.

I try to be careful when it comes to quotes from professional sports. Players, general managers and coaches have no incentive to tell us the truth (or to be upfront with us), and we know agents can't be trusted. As the grapevine taught us long ago, you believe half of what you see and none of what you hear.

This is a roundabout way to introduce the Dan Haren situation. The Anaheim righty was kicked around Tuesday at Cleveland (4.1 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K), the fifth straight time he's struggled. If you add up the numbers over this terrible run, Haren comes in with an 8.97 ERA and a 1.89 ratio, with nine homers allowed. Just 18 strikeouts over 27 innings.

Haren finally admitted after Tuesday's game that he's been battling lower-back pain all season. It's just the second time it's been mentioned; the ailment was briefly discussed in mid-May, then the topic vanished into mid air. This underscores the consistent fear we essentially have to accept with any struggling pitcher: maybe he's hurt and not telling us, or maybe he's hurt and still in denial about it.

I suppose it's nice to have a reason we can attach to the Haren slump, just so things make sense in a linear fashion. Maybe a skipped start or a DL stint would go a long way towards getting Haren fixed in the second half. He's been remarkably durable during his career, logging 216 innings or more in seven straight years. But the next time you see a big-name pitcher in a terrible run, don't automatically assume he'll magically return to his branded level of excellence. Pitching is one of the most unnatural acts there is, and anyone who toes the rubber carries a significant amount of health risk. There are no sure things on the mound.

The matchup between Trevor Bauer and Andrew Cashner looked pretty on paper but it didn't play out nicely on the field. Cashner actually was terrific through two innings, but a lat injury forced him out of the game shortly after third-inning warm-ups. Bauer, meanwhile, did the walk of shame in the fourth (3.1 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 4 BB, 4 K), letting fantasy owners down for the second straight turn.

It's hard to be overly optimistic on either pitcher for the immediate future, though I'd like to see what Bauer might do if he gets command of his curveball back. That pitch has been essentially useless to him in the majors, and he's also been working behind in the count too often — stuff you can't get away with in The Show.

One size does not fit all with fantasy advice, and especially with a wide-range-of-outcomes guy like Bauer. Deep-league owners will probably bench Bauer and hope for the best, while he's an easy drop in shallow mixers. The medium-league players have a decision, but I would have no problem cutting Bauer if something interesting caught your eye on the wire. There's no rule of thumb when it comes to prospect development; the light bulb goes on when it goes on.

A DL trip seems likely for Cashner, especially considering his extensive injury history. A similar lat injury cost Huston Street a month earlier this year. The Padres aren't going anywhere in 2012, so they have zero incentive to expose Cashner to any danger. If you're in a medium or shallow league that doesn't have DL spots, I advise you drop him immediately. The potential is wonderful, but I'll be shocked if the Padres put Cashner's rehab on the fast track. They're obviously planning for the future.

Let's open up the post-hype file and consider the name Tyler Colvin. He's homered in three of his past six games, giving him 10 round-trippers in just 168 at-bats for the year. He's also hitting .304, and you'll find him available in 91 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Colvin doesn't have a full-time job to call his own yet, but that could change at any time. He's already seen action at four different positions (first base, every outfield post), so if one of four different Colorado players were to suffer an injury, Colvin's path clears nicely. (If I ran the Rockies, I'd start using Colvin as the regular at first base over Todd Helton — the kid is 26, the veteran is 38. Why not start looking ahead to the future? But Jim Tracy and Dan O'Dowd have not asked my opinion.)

I can understand why a lot of roto owners are leery on Colvin: his .150/.204/.306 nightmare in Chicago last year left a mark (though the plug was pulled after 206 at-bats). Some other owners will shy away because of Colvin's hacking mentality (just eight walks this year), and his extreme home/road splits (1.104 OPS at Coors, .748 everywhere else) — though you can pin the split argument on just about every Colorado player. And obviously he is not a full-time player just yet.

But in these post-hype cases, it often pays to say "why not?" when others are saying "why bother?" Consider the case of Trevor Plouffe in Minnesota, a former first-round pick (20th overall, 2004) who finally got it together in his Age 26 season. Is Colvin really that different? He was the 13th overall pick in 2006, after all, and everyone liked him in 2010 (20 homers and six steals over 358 at-bats). I'm not asking you to drop proven guys for Colvin, but this is someone to grab right now in most medium and deep mixers — and he might force his way into the shallow-league conversation soon enough. There's a plausible upside here. Don't wait until the picture is fully developed and the window is slammed for good.

Although the Indians had an offensive party against Haren, Carlos Santana did not get the memo. The Cleveland backstop posted one of his common lines: 0-for-3, with a walk.

Have a look at Santana's last two months: .196/.305/.270, one measly homer, 18 runs, 16 RBIs. Remember he had a back problem and a concussion issue in May — no one can be sure how healthy he is. In keeper leagues it's probably a forced hold, but in one-and-done formats don't wait around. There's good catching out there, pick up someone else. We're in it for the numbers, not the names.

Speed Round: You're on your own with Tim Lincecum (8 R, 7 ER at Washington). I'm not touching him in any of my leagues, even if he's sitting for free somewhere (I don't think he is). His only excellent start out of his last six comes with a huge asterisk — it was against the hapless Dodgers. … After hitting just three homers over 56 games, Ryan Zimmerman has four in his last eight games, including another in the early July 4 match. That must be an amazing shot of cortisone he put into his shoulder. … Dustin Pedroia has been told to stay out of Wednesday's lineup. Do not mess with thumb injuries, my friends. He'll be examined by team doctors when the club returns to Boston on Thursday. … Brian Fuentes has been designated for assignment, which sounds so much cooler than it really is. The A's tried aggressively to shop him but no one was fooled. … Shaun Marcum is still feeling discomfort in the elbow, so don't assume he'll return immediately after the All-Star break. … Brian Roberts (groin) is injured again, to the surprise of no one. He wasn't doing anything roto-worthy anyway. … Andre Ethier still has some discomfort in his rib-cage area, so "day-to-day" will probably turn into "DL stint" any moment now. Man do the Dodgers need to add a batter, or five. … So much for the cushy Franklin Morales start against Oakland; Bobby Valentine pulled out the rug from under us and called a holiday audible. The Red Sox will now use Morales on Saturday at home against the Yankees, one half of a double-header. Your depth and league specs make the call — this is not an automatic start on my clipboard. If you own Morales and are already committed, hope the lefty gets the better half of the draw (managers normally will rest some regulars in one half of a twin-bill). It's almost impossible to project double-leader lineups before the fact, however.

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