NFL predictions, 2012: Go big, or go home

04 Sep
2012
by in General

With the 2012 NFL regular season set to get underway, we've asked the Yahoo! experts (Brandon Funston, Andy Behrens, Brad Evans, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don) to take one final look into their crystal ball and share their most outrageous visions for the upcoming season. And, for the record, preseason player accuracy has been a specialty of this Yahoo! contingent, so don't discount the possibility that some of these bold predictions might actually come true — well, except for the last one (below).

The Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning is a notable disappointment and the Broncos don't make the playoffs. (SP)

Andrew Luck is a top-12 fantasy quarterback, and the Colts make a serious run at the playoffs. (DDD)

Andrew Luck rushes for the same number of touchdowns as Russell Wilson/RGIII. (BE)

Robert Griffin III finishes ahead of Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger in per game average. (BE)

The Redskins will be led in rushing this season by their quarterback, RGIII. And he'll run for less than 750 yards. This ground game is simply noise; try to tune it out if you can. It's not worth the chase. (AB)

Jay Cutler will throw for less than 4,000 yards and 25 TD passes. (BF)

Kyle Orton will finish as a top-12 scorer at his position on a per-game basis. (Alternate quarterback name for this bold/ridiculous prediction: Shaun Hill). (AB)

Nick Foles fills in for an injured Michael Vick in five games, records a top-10 fantasy QB total during that stretch. (BE)

The Seahawks win the NFC West, the defense is excellent, and Russell Wilson is an overnight star. (SP)

The Running Backs

Maurice Jones-Drew will appear in less than 12 games this season. (AB)

Ryan Mathews miraculously plays 14 games, finishes No. 1 in per game average among RBs. (BE)

Stevan Ridley is more valuable than Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw and Frank Gore. (DDD)

Former Hokies Ryan Williams and David Wilson will finish with more total fantasy points than their respective backfield running mates. (BF)

David Wilson is a top 10 fantasy back in the second half of the year. (SP)

David Wilson overtakes Ahmad Bradshaw by Week 7, and, from that point on, compiles top-12 numbers among RBs. (BE)

Cedric Benson finishes as a top-15 fantasy back. (DDD)

After finishing as the No. 10 fantasy running back last season, Darren Sproles finishes outside the top 20 at the position and does not end up as his own team's best fantasy RB. (BF)

Kevin Smith is a top-12 fantasy back on a per-game basis. (DDD)

Kevin Smith will gain at least 25 percent of his 2012 total yardage in Week 1 against the Rams. I'm trying to imply two things here: 1) Smith has an outstanding match-up in the opener, and 2) I do not trust him over a full season. (AB)

Fred Jackson tramples the competition en route to a top-5 fantasy season among RBs. (BE)

DeMarco Murray lives up to his hyped ADP and produces top-5 fantasy production from the RB position. (DDD)

DeMarco Murray will enter 2013 as a consensus top-5 fantasy pick. No explanation required. (AB)

Jonathan Dwyer emerges as the most valuable fantasy asset in Pittsburgh's backfield. (DDD)

Peyton Hillis bowls his way into the end zone 12 times, chipping in an additional 1,200 total yards. (BE)

LeSean McCoy has a better fantasy year than Ray Rice, while Chris Johnson scores more fantasy points than Darren McFadden. (DDD)

Doug Martin becomes the most revered rookie rusher, logging 1,300 total yards and 7-9 touchdowns. (BE)

Doug Martin does not finish as the best among the top 2 fantasy running backs of the '12 class. (BF)

The Wide Receivers

Thanks to a historic season by Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones ends the year as "just" the No. 2 fantasy wide receiver. (DDD)

Brandon Marshall does not lead the Bears in touchdown catches. (SP)

Malcom Floyd will finish with a higher single-season fantasy tally than Vincent Jackson ever produced as a member of the Chargers. (BF)

Torrey Smith scores 11 touchdowns and goes well over 1,000 yards. (SP)

Kenny Britt amazingly staves off his ninth arrest and knee woes and tallies a top-15 WR line . (BE)

Victor Cruz leads the NFL in receiving yards and scores double-digit touchdowns. (BF)

Greg Jennings finishes outside the top-10 fantasy wide receivers, while teammate Jordy Nelson ends up top-5. (DDD)

Andre Johnson scores five times or less. (SP)

Pierre Garcon finishes as a top-15 fantasy wideout. (BF)

Eric Decker leads the AFC in receptions with 106. (BE)

Greg Little catches 78 passes, and the Browns somehow win seven games or more, most of them in ugly fashion. (SP)

Miles Austin easily outpaces Dez Bryant as the Cowboys top fantasy WR. (BF)

Josh Gordon emerges as Brandon Weeden's go-to guy, totals 60-850-6. (BE)

Stephen Hill leads the Jets in receiving touchdowns. (SP)

The Tight Ends

Aaron Hernandez outpaces Rob Gronkowski finishing only behind Jimmy Graham in overall tight end value. (BE)

Vernon Davis leads all tight ends in fantasy scoring. (AB)

Vernon Davis scores a dozen touchdowns. (DDD)

Jermichael Finley will catch more touchdown passes than Jordy Nelson this season. (AB)

Jason Witten is not a Top-12 tight end. (SP)

Jared Cook leads the Titans in receiving yards. (BF)

The Others

In an effort to spark his slumping team, Jeff Fisher shaves his mustache in November. (SP)

By November, Mike Shanahan is starting a running back that we haven't talked about at all this summer. (BF)

In a moment of confusion, Bill Belichick discloses useful injury information about one of his own players. (SP)

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Tags: , Brandon Funston, , DeMarco, , , , , , , SP,
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Flames: RG3 is about to drop bombs on the Bayou

03 Sep
2012
by in General

Each week the Noise highlights 12-13 somewhat obscure, unobvious names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. As an accountability advocate, results, whether genius or moronic, will post the following week using the scoring system shown below. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 1 Flames in the comments section below.

Robert Griffin III, Wash, QB (30-percent started)
Matchup: at NO
In exhibition play, the anti-Akili Smith gave viewers a preview of greatness to come. With the exception of one rough series in Chicago, he displayed exceptional command, precision and pocket poise over three preseason games, finishing 20-for-31 (64.5 completion percentage) for 193 yards, two touchdowns and zero picks. Many would say counting on a rookie in his first professional start is akin to trusting Clint Eastwood to make a coherent speech on an enormous political stage, but RG3 is up to the task. The Saints, already a suspect unit pre-bounty fallout, are a very exploitable defense. Defensive end Will Smith and linebacker Jonathan Vilma, who were handed down multi-week vacations for their part in the scandal, won't be in attendance. Starting linebackers Curtis Lofton (ankle) and David Hawthorne (meniscus surgery) could also miss action. 'Nawlins, the 10th-most generous unit to QBs a season ago, will undoubtedly be one of the league's most matchup-friendly teams, especially early on. Add that to Drew Brees' indestructibility at home (328 ypg, 29:6 TD:INT in eight homes games last year), and it's likely a point-scoring bonanza occurs. A Cam Newton-esque debut is certainly within the realm of possibility. Eat fresh, gamers.

Fearless Forecast: 26-40, 284 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 29 rushing yards, 28.1 fantasy points

Rashad Jennings, Jax, RB (31-percent started)
Matchup: at Min
Maurice Jones-Drew, doing his best Chris Johnson impersonation, ended his holdout at the eleventh hour, reporting to Jags camp Sunday. What a party-crasher. Jennings, who looked every bit a three-down workhorse running with the first-team in preseason play, was on the fast-track toward fantasy stardom. The Jags offense, which resembled a rusted-out Yugo last year, is now a souped-up Ford Taurus. No longer vertically inept, it should execute at a respectable level. If that happens, Jennings should thrive during his one game audition. At 6-foot-1, 228-pounds, the Liberty product is a load to lasso. He's brutish between the tackles, versatile and, most importantly, extremely motivated. If Jennings explodes against Minnesota, he could earn additional touches in what will likely be a loose platoon once the incumbent gets up to full speed. LBs Chad Greenway, Erin Henderson and defensive tackle Kevin Williams were fairly stiff against the run last year, but were far from the impregnable fortress Minnesota was just two short years ago. Ten rushers scored at least 12 fantasy points against the Vikes in standard formats in 2011, up from four the year before . Opportunity knocks for Jennings. Don't expect him to spoil it.

[Bold NFL predictions for Fantasy Football '12]

Fearless Forecast: 21 carries, 97 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 9 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.1 fantasy points

Kevin Smith, Det, RB (39-percent started)
Matchup: vs. StL
Most members of the fantasy community harbor lukewarm feelings for Smith. His recurring ankle problems and fair speed leave a lot to be desired. But, when healthy, he's a skilled back who contributes solidly via ground and air. His 201 total yard, three-TD mauling of Carolina Week 11 was one of four double-digit performances in his seven games last year. With Mikel Leshoure out due to suspension and Jahvid Best on the PUP, he's the only game in town, tender wheel and all. St. Louis, historically vulnerable against the run, should undergo a culture change with Jeff Fisher, but don't expect an overnight turnaround. System implementation and talent-stocking take time. Some strides will be made, but this is a club that allowed 161.8 total yards per game to RBs a season ago, the sixth-most in the NFL. Make no mistake, Detroit is a pass-first, past-often club, but because of Smith's plus hands, he's a strong candidate for 3-5 catches per game, enhancing his worth in PPR leagues. In what should be a one-sided contest, expect the rusher to rack the points on roughly 15-20 touches. Employ him as a RB2 even in 10-team formats.

Fearless Forecast: 15 carries, 67 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 14 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.9 fantasy points

Malcom Floyd, SD, WR (22-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Oak
Blessed with the neck of Merton Hanks and the long strides of Herman Moore, Floyd is a gangling downfield weapon who, quietly, could be on the verge of a breakout campaign. Many publications talked up Vincent Brown and Robert Meachem pre-camp, but with the former out for the next several weeks due to a fractured ankle and the latter coming off a tepid preseason, the Chargers' No. 2 WR from 2011 is in an excellent position to build on last year's success. Though injuries have occasionally plagued him, Floyd has performed terrifically when off the trainer's table. His 9.6 per game average a season ago ranked No. 20 among wide receivers. Oakland's defense, particularly up front, appears much improved. Still, the overhauled secondary is loaded with question marks. Veteran corners Ronald Bartell and Shawntae Spencer, on paper, are marginal options. Weighing that and considering Ryan Mathews likely won't be in the backfield, despite his return to the non-contact portion of practice Monday, Norv Turner will lean heavily on Philip Rivers' arm Monday night, increasing Floyd's chances for a profitable week. Promote him to WR3 or FLEX in 12-team and deeper leagues.

[Donovan McNabb accepts reality, moves toward a career in broadcasting]

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 86 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.4 fantasy points

Greg Olsen, Car, TE (19-percent started)
Matchup: at TB
The He-Man doppelganger has gained considerable momentum over the past couple weeks. Steve Smith's foot infection, minimal excitement over Brandon LaFell and Ron Rivera's bold prediction Olsen could be the next Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, moved the target's needle in late drafts. Those that played the patience game and nabbed the ex-Bear in the double-digit rounds could cash immediately. Linebackers Mason Foster, Lavonte David and Quincy Black are outmatched. Last season, Foster and Black ranked near the bottom of the league in pass coverage, together surrendering a near 80-percent catch rate. Look for offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski, who was an instrumental force behind the rise of Antonio Gates in San Diego and Kellen Winslow in Cleveland, to attack Tampa's weakness. Olsen has always possessed the physical tools to be a star, but inconsistencies in route-running and the presence of Jeremy Shockey hindered him. Now with Shockey out of the picture, he should emerge as Cam's No. 2, attracting upwards of 7-9 targets per game. Coming off a standout camp and given the fantastic matchup, look for him to make a great first impression. Wield the Power Sword, deep leaguers.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 52 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.9 fantasy points

SHOCKER SPECIAL (Under 10-percent started)

Alfred Morris, Wash, RB (1-percent started) (Or Evan Royster, Roy Helu, Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, Maurice Clarett, He Hate Me ... whoever starts at RB for the 'Skins is a must play)
Matchup: at NO
In order to get a leg up in this business sometimes you have to be a little nutty. Attempting to read Lucifer Shanahan's innermost thoughts is usually a futile exercise, but it's possible Morris gets the first crack to establish himself as the 'Skins' lead rusher. Tim Hightower was kicked to the curb last week, Roy Helu is slated for third-down duties and Evan Royster, though listed atop the team's initial depth-chart, could be the fallback option on early downs. Then again, who the hell knows. As Chris Cooley noted last year, everyone, even players in the locker-room, were routinely kept in the dark about the RB pecking order. If Morris nets the start, bank on him seizing the moment. Admittedly, the sixth-round rookie isn't anything special. He's tight-hipped, a suspect blocker and had a fumbling problem in college. But that's the beauty of a one-cut-and-go scheme. If you're an effective downhill runner with quality vision and break-tackle ability, you can succeed, provided you squeeze the rock. See Foster, Arian. As stated above, the Saints are hurting defensively. Key losses due to injury and suspension definitely favors Washington's above average offensive line. The Hogs will lead Morris to the trough. Recall last year, a healthier New Orleans team conceded 5.2 yards per carry to rushers. Because of its depleted state, that number could rise this season. Again, assuming he carves out a substantial role, expect "The Butler" to serve the Saints.

Fearless Forecast: 18 carries, 83 rushing yards, 1 reception, 5 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.6 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 1 FLAMES

TEAM HUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Flames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Mondays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

NFL video from Yahoo! Sports:

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Kevin Smith (ankle) back at practice Monday – Kevin Smith | DET

03 Sep
2012
Kevin Smith (ankle) participated in Lions practice Monday.
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Draft Review: The Fantasy Pros Invitational, 2012

31 Aug
2012
by in General

OK, this post requires a warning, right at the top: If you have zero interest in reading a few thousand words about another man's fantasy draft, then you'll want to check out right now. Go. Beat it. Scram.

I'm guessing you could assemble another team or two in the time it would take to get through this thing. Fantasy draft recaps aren't everyone's cup of Yoo-hoo.  I get it. They actually read these things aloud to enemy combatants in secret prisons. The tactic, while cruel, has been highly effective.

But if you're willing to invest some time in this feature, you'll find some useful information — it's true, I swear. Today we're reviewing the results of the 2012 Fantasy Pros Invitational (drafted on Thursday, August 23). The league is comprised entirely of fantasy analysts who have, at some point recently, finished in the top 10 percent in the Fantasy Pros accuracy ranks. Thus, it's a very good group. Extremely competitive, full of sharks. We've got every expert who's ever finished atop the Fantasy Pros ranks. Defending league champ Pat Fitzmaurice is back, too. Even if you can't make yourself read all 8,000,000 words in this piece (or however many it is), you should at least scan this monster, bookmark the websites and follow these folks on Twitter. You won't regret it.

This season, we expanded the field in the Invitational from 12 owners to 20, so as to ensure that every participant would kinda/sorta hate their team. There are also some scoring quirks here (six points per passing TD, 0.5 points per reception) that clearly impacted draft strategies.

After the obligatory sign-up banner, you'll find a few thoughts from each of our 20 managers (well, OK, 19 of 'em), listed in the order that they drafted. You'll get the draft results, too. Keep scrolling...

Scott Pianowski (team name "Johnny Hector"), Yahoo! Sports, 2011 Fantasy Pros season accuracy champ, @scott_pianowski

The slant of the scoring pushed me to Aaron Rodgers at first overall, plus I didn't want to play quarterback chicken in a league of this size. I was thrilled to go Welker-Nelson at 40-41, but that means I need to get lucky with my running backs. (When Donald Brown is your top tailback, you're not actively seeking out side bets). I keep drafting Toby Gerhart (3-for-3 in my first draft cycle), which means I know something everyone doesn't or I'm the last guy to accept the reality of Adrian Peterson, superhero. I don't blame anyone for fading my Gerhart pick — though at 121st overall, at least the price was reasonable. -SP

Kevin Hanson, EatDrinkandSleepFootball.com, @EDSFootball

With 36 picks in between each pair of my almost-bookend picks, my strategy going into this draft was to secure my starting quarterback and two starting running backs (in some order) with my first three picks, then turn my attention to receivers. I was thrilled about having the No. 2 overall pick; considerably less thrilled about picking next at No. 39. The draft felt a little like Disney World — long waits for about one minute of action (and then repeat).

As tempting as it was to take Tom Brady at No. 2, due to scoring format and depth of the league, it was too difficult for me to pass up Foster. Despite missing a few games last year, in the past two seasons combined Foster has 4,000-plus yards from scrimmage, 119 receptions and 30 total touchdowns. Provided Foster and Bradshaw both stay healthy (no lock in either case), my starting running back duo is as good as any in the league. I'm relatively happy with my first three picks (Foster, Bradshaw and Rivers) and overall receiver depth. I wish I had added my third running back sooner than Daniel Thomas (Round 9), but hindsight is 20-20.

League settings require us to start 3-5 receivers and I had none through 78 picks. Although my team lacks an elite receiver, my top six all rank within my top 60 at the position. With an upgrade to Andrew Luck from a trio of Collins, Painter and Orlovsky, Wayne should at least be able to maintain his 2011 production (960 yards). Meachem should get plenty of looks in an offense that has ranked first in passing yards per attempt in three of the past four seasons. A physical freak (6-4, 230 pounds, 42-inch vertical), Baldwin has spent less time this year fighting teammates and more time maintaining focus. Ranking him higher than most, I expect (hope for) a breakout season for Baldwin this year. Paraphrasing a raunchy George Carlin joke to describe my receivers, I don't have any No. 1's but I have three No. 2's. -KH

Ben Doughty, Fantasy Sharks

This draft was incredibly challenging. With 20 teams in the league, one wrong move could have sent my team reeling. I had the third pick which is usually a no-brainer for one of the big three RBs. I briefly considered QB, but ultimately decided to go with McCoy over Rice or Brady. My plan was to take at least one RB and QB in the first three rounds and either my second running back or a wide receiver. This league is .5 PPR so the deep receiver pool was less enticing to me early on.

My second round pick (35 picks after my first) had me debating WR or QB. I was surprised by how many QB's were taken before it came back to me (8). It came down to Jennings, Jordy, or Welker. I went with Jennings even with the early concussion issue. I took the chance a QB would fall to me in the third round.

Round 3 was easy for me to nab Vick and hope that he stays healthy. I wasn't stoked about having Vick with McCoy necessarily, but I felt he was the best QB left on the board. The long wait for my 4th round pick was a decision for me. I could take my second running back or tight end. I went with Vernon Davis. He should be solid this season and with so many owners I don't need to worry about the position on a weekly basis. I was fortunate to land my targeted running back coming back in the 5th round in Cedric Benson. I think he is going to be a solid No. 2 and was ecstatic to find him still available at pick 83.

This draft became thin incredibly fast. I am comfortable with Davone Bess and Mario Manningham as my other wide receivers. I picked Vincent Brown (yes, the one out 6-8 weeks) in the 9th round hoping to be able to stash him until he comes back. I think David Nelson could be a surprise if Chan Gailey's pass happy offense puts the ball in the air early and often. My final pick was Devin Hester. I don't expect much from him but felt he was worth the risk in Round 15.

My running back depth is not a strength by any means. We start two, and have two flex positions. I'm really counting on Isaac Redman to have some sort of production because my only other running back is Taiwan Jones from Oakland. He obviously only has value if McFadden becomes injured, and then he would split time with Goodson. -BD

Jeff Haseley, Football Guys, @JeffHaseley

My plan for attacking this draft was to go quarterback first, with the fourth overall pick. My reason behind this is simple - I know I can get an elite quarterback at 1.04, the scoring format rewards six points per touchdown pass, and there are 20 teams participating in this draft. If I skipped on quarterback with the first pick, the pickings would be slim when 2.17 came back around. I picked Tom Brady at 1.04, who is ranked 2nd in my projections.

I honestly had no idea what players would be available at 2.17, so I took one of the best players available in Antonio Gates and figured I would get the best wide receiver available on the turn at 3.04. Taking a top-5 tight end turned out to be the right move, as I was later able to secure a strong (in my estimation) wide receiver corps and have an elite tight end in the process.

Pick 3.04 (44 overall) - I selected Brandon Lloyd to pair with Tom Brady. If you're going to have a QB-WR combo, make it a good one. Lloyd is a potential Top 10 WR if he performs as expected. At this point in the draft I had no running backs with 33 more picks before my next selection.

Pick 4.17 was approaching and I was watching Kevin Smith, Peyton Hillis, Frank Gore and Shonn Greene come off the board. I know very few teams will have two strong running backs, but I just wanted one who had 200+ carry potential and hopefully find a diamond in the rough for my other running backs. I went QB, TE and WR with my first three picks; if I could get a legit RB, I'd be stoked. Jacquizz Rodgers went one pick before me; I love him this year, but not as much in a league that is only 0.5 PPR. Staring me in the face was one of the best quiet performers of training camp and preseason so far: Willis McGahee. I believe McGahee will be the Broncos primary rusher all season long. John Fox is not one to start rookies at running back, especially when one of those duties is protect Peyton Manning. McGahee in that offense could produce a top-20 season. Welcome to my RB1 slot, Willis. The wait paid off.

Pick 5.04 - My goal was to get Reggie Wayne, but he went four picks prior. The drop-off of veteran or proven wide receivers was thinning out, and I needed another one to go with Lloyd. The running back talent was thinner than wide receiver, so my choice was to secure my WR2. When proven talent dries up, the plan of action in my book is to go after potential talent, hoping for a high ceiling. Instead of rolling the dice with under-achievers Malcolm Floyd, Denarius Moore, Michael Crabtree, et al, I decided on a rookie who is making waves this preseason, who also figures to be a prominent fixture of the offense - that's Justin Blackmon.

Pick 6.17 - By this point everything was thinning out, but tight end offered the most value on the board. In this format, there are two flex spots, including tight end, so I decided that taking a tight end was more important than securing my third wide receiver. I selected Jermaine Gresham, and will start him at one of my flex spots.

Pick 7.04 - I needed to get my third wide receiver here or the pickings would be very slim 33 picks later. I again decided on potential talent and selected Titans rookie WR Kendall Wright, who is also having a strong preseason and looks to play a big role in the offense this year. Wright won out over Brandon LaFell. This decision could turn out to be a mistake or the right move. I feel confident in Wright, so that's what matters.

Pick 8.17, 9.04 - I punted RB2 long enough, it was time to make a pick here. My next two picks were going to be the best running backs available. I wanted Kendall Hunter, but he went five picks earlier. I decided on LeGarrette Blount and Mike Tolbert on the turn. Both backs will see touches and could see an increased role if an injury hits.

Pick 10.17 and 11.04 - It was time to assemble my bench and choose my defense. Let's face it, the value was thin everywhere, except defense and kicker. I decided I would wait on kicker and choose a strong D. I chose James Jones and the Patriots D/ST. Jones could be entered into my lineup as a starter, if absolutely needed. He's a great value this late in the draft. One injury on the Packers receiver corps could make Jones a strong start. I expect a rebound from the Patriots defense this year. They will be strong in sacks and turnovers. Any yardage or scoring defense will be icing on the cake. Plus I think rookie Jeff Demps is going to be a great returner for them this year.

Picks 12.17, 13.04, 14.17, 15.04 - Time to draft some sleepers and a kicker. At 12.17 I went with Denver's expected WR3, Andre Caldwell. If Manning is Manning, this could be a great pick. 13.07 I took the best kicker available in Randy Bullock. (Ed. note: Bullock hit IR, so Haseley added his replacement, Shayne Graham). The Texans figure to score a lot of points, naturally their kicker will benefit. Pick 14.07 was Le'Ron McClain. If Norv Turner decides to keep what has worked for him in the past - a big bruising back who can catch, then this could be a great pick. My last pick at 15.04 was Saints wide receiver Joseph Morgan. I am confident someone will replace Robert Meachem in New Orleans, Morgan has been having a great camp and preseason. If he earns a WR3 role, this pick will be well worth it.

Conclusion: Overall, I am pleased with the results of my draft. The best pick for me is arguably selecting Willis McGahee as the 77th overall selection and my RB1. That pick justified me choosing a top-3 quarterback, top-5 tight end and a top-15 wide receiver to go along with McGahee, who I believe will be a top-20 running back. I don't see any other team that can boast that. If my two rookie wide receivers Blackmon and Wright pan out, as I expect them to, I should be able to compete with any team in the league. -JH

Brandon Funston ("Team 6"), Yahoo! Sports, @1befun

It's pretty crazy how many times a person can be denied the player they wanted in a 20-team draft, by just a pick or two. That was definitely my experience in this draft, where receiving targets Victor Cruz, Pierre Garcon, Torrey Smith were coveted near misses (among many others). And, in hindsight, Donald Brown or Willis McGahee would have been more prudent choices than Jacquizz Rodgers in Round 4 (Pick 76). I went with my heart over my mind on that one — and that's fine in a 12-team draft, where you don't have as big a problem finding replacement depth. In a 20-teamer, a bird in the hand (RB with a starting gig) is better than a Dirty Bird backup with upside potential. -BF

Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports, 2010 Fantasy Pros draft accuracy champ, @JameyEisenberg

First rule: Always show up on time. I had a prior commitment that kept me from the beginning of the draft, and I had my first four picks auto-selected (Ryan Mathews, Mike Wallace, Victor Cruz and Kenny Britt). Even in a 20-team league, I would never have taken Britt or Wallace that early since I'm down on them, but I'll make it work. It was my fault for being late. At the end of the season, if Wallace and Britt play well, I'll take all the credit for their success. I ended up with a decent roster, and hopefully I'll compete, following my draft disaster. It's always fun to take fliers on guys like Alfred Morris and Kevin Ogletree to see if they pan out. -JE

Josh Moore, 4for4.com, @4for4_Josh

First off, drafting in a 20-team league is tough. Not to mention the stellar cast of fantasy virtuosos earning their way into this Fantasy Pros Invitational, hosted by the always charming Mr. Behrens. By the luck of the draw I ended up with the seventh pick of 20. My partner in crime John Paulsen landed the eighth pick. Since our draft lists are similar, this caused some headaches and interesting decisions throughout the draft.

With the seventh pick I was set to take one of Rodgers/Brady, or the next best RB on my board. Rodgers and Brady were gone inside the first four picks, but thanks to the skilled auto-picker, Ryan Mathews' clavicle was selected with the 6th pick and both Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden were available to me at 1.07. It was a difficult decision, essentially a coin flip for me, but I selected Johnson and the perceived safety, hoping for a rebound. DMC went 1.08 to John.

In a format as deep as this, I place a premium on consistent weekly producers. Both Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden were selected in the first round of the 2008 draft. Since then, Chris Johnson has missed only one game in his four-year career. Conversely, Darren McFadden has missed 19 games and has yet to play in more than 13 in any one season.

The downside of the seventh pick in a 20-team league is the 26 picks before picking again. I was open to just about anything at 2.14, but with eight QBs off the board, the decision to wait on QB was made for me. Darren Sproles was available, and while I don't love him as much in a 0.5 PPR league as I would in a full PPR, I feel good about a starting RB duo of CJ1k and Sproles.

In the middle rounds I was pleased to be able to pick Percy Harvin and Torrey Smith, both of whom I've very high on this season. In the fifth I grabbed Jake Locker as my starting QB (16th QB selected). Locker is not an ideal starter in a standard league, but in a 20-teamer I like the upside his legs bring, and waiting on QB allowed me to grab some quality RBs & WRs. I was able to use my final pick on Matt Hasselbeck as a backup, after all the starting QBs were off the board.

One thing to note about the dynamics of a 20-team league is that QBs go fast. However, after the first 19-21 of them are off the board, the next tier hangs around for a while. In such a deep format, filling your starting roster is paramount and backup QBs are neglected for all but the Vickiest of owners. Twenty QBs went off the board through the first six rounds, but only one was selected in each of the seventh and eighth. Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Christian Ponder were all available in the ninth round and presented good value there. The best value pick of the entire draft may have been Chet Gresham's selection of then-yet-to-be-named-starter and NC State Wolfpack standout Russell Wilson in the 10th.

The rest of my draft was used to grab Greg Olsen at TE and draft depth and handcuffs elsewhere (Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Javon Ringer, Joel Dreessen). Rarely do you feel good about your team coming out of a 20 team draft, but by waiting at QB I was able to fill out a competitive lineup at the cost of Jake Locker as my starting QB. If Locker can stay on the field and continue to make big plays, I like my chances. -JM

John Paulsen, 4for4.com, 2010 Fantasy Pros season accuracy champ, @4for4_John

Given the size of the draft (20 masochists, experts in the art of self-flagellation) and the number of non-QB skill starters (8), my plan of attack was to fill out my RB and WR starters before turning my attention to QB or TE which are deeper considering we only need to start one of each.

I felt great about how the first five rounds turned out. I was expecting an exercise in frustration, but my targeted players were actually slipping to me. Darren McFadden will finish in the top 5 if he can put together a full season. Due to the format, I felt I had to pass on Calvin Johnson, but it turns out that I could've gotten a decent RB2 in the third round, in the form of Michael Turner or Reggie Bush. Last year's draft went very heavy RB early, and I thought it would go the same way in 2012. Oh well.

Steven Jackson is a solid RB2 and I felt fortunate to get him in the second round. I like Steve Smith in the third — I would've preferred Percy Harvin but my rat bastard of a colleague Josh took him the pick before mine. In the fourth and fifth, I took Pierre Garcon, who has already developed a nice rapport with Robert Griffin III, and Darrius Heyward-Bey, who averaged 5.8—91—0.6 over the final five games of 2011. I am hoping he can pick up where he left off, despite the Raiders' rough preseason.

By focusing on RB and WR, I was left with Josh Freeman in the sixth round. I regret this pick somewhat due to Freeman's struggles in the preseason, but he has a great schedule and should be okay once things start to click. My plan was to go QBBC with Alex Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick, but middle round picks were at such a premium that I didn't feel comfortable spending two on the quarterback position. As it turned out both players lasted until the ninth round. Had I known that, I would've taken Smith in the eighth round and Fitzpatrick in the ninth, and instead drafted super sleeper Lance Moore in the 6th. Hindsight is 20/15.

Once I had a QB, I started looking for tight end and decided to take Brent Celek in the seventh — he was the 13th TE off the board and I felt I got good value there. Celek started the 2011 season slowly, but posted 53—738—5 over the final 11 games, getting 7.0 targets per game down the stretch. I think he has a chance to post top-5 numbers if he's allowed to run routes. Last year in this league I made the playoffs by starting both Jason Witten and Rob Gronkowski, so I elected to draft Coby Fleener in eighth round as a possible flex starter. I would've preferred Kyle Rudolph or Jared Cook, but they went between my seventh and eighth round picks.

I am not very happy with my bench. I like Fitzpatrick at quarterback — he will form a nice QBBC with Freeman — but I was slow to draft backup RBs and WRs because I took the Packers in the 11th and Stephen Gostkowski in the 12th. I normally would stream defenses, but that's not possible in a 20-team league. I overestimated my ability to find sleepers in this league in the final rounds, and ended up with Marcel Reece, Joe McKnight and Roberto "Ankle Weights" Wallace. Hopefully, the waiver wire gods will be kind. -JP

Marc Caviglia, Bruno Boys, 2011 Fantasy Pros draft accuracy champs, @BrunoBoys

Drafting in a 20-team league is never easy. Factor in your competition against 19 other industry experts, and you have your work cut out for you. However, at the end of the day I like my team and feel that it can go toe-toe with the rest of the league. Securing Calvin Johnson at 1.09 gives me a receiver that I can rely on weekly. Forget about the Madden Curse, Megatron is going to produce and make the owners who passed him up look stupid. Reaching for Tony Romo at 2.12 was a must, because the last thing I wanted to do was wait on a signal caller and be stuck having to pencil in Alex Smith weekly.

My biggest weakness is at the running back position. With it mandatory to start two running backs and a flex, there just isn't enough talent in the league to solidify a solid 1-2 combo and it shows on my team. I better hope that the wheels haven't fallen off of Michael Turner (3.09), and that someone taught Shonn Greene (4.12) that the goal is to gain yards.

Only time will tell how this team plays out, however one thing is for certain: Mr. Secret Treasure Loaf (see below) and his team of second-rate talent will be looking up at the Bruno Boys in the standings. -MC

Bob Henry, Football Guys, @bobhenry

I was nearly shocked in the first round, drafting out of the 10 hole, when Calvin Johnson kept falling only to go right in front of me at 1.9. I became prematurely excited at the notion of having Megatron in this 20-teamer, not that I was disappointed at all to draft Demarco Murray with my first pick. Ironically, it was in this same league last year that I selected Murray in the last few founds. With short benches, I held onto him as long as I could - right up until the week I was forced to make a move. Of course, I dropped him and he exploded the next week and I couldn't get him back.

My strategy for this 20-team league was quite simple, actually. Knowing the wait would be painful between picks watching the talent come off the board, I was merely looking for the best players available while focusing on running backs early. I knew I wouldn't get an elite QB, although I hoped to grab Cam Newton with my secnd pick. That didn't happen, of course, so I took a gamble with Adrian Peterson and then again with Dez Bryant - both fall into that category of players with much more talent than their ADP suggests.

Missing out on the elite QBs, I was targeting Peyton Manning or RGIII. Both went before I could make a move, so I went with Andrew Luck. While it's a little unnerving going into a league with a rookie QB, I'm not overly concerned given how good he has looked in the preseason and how capable and prepared he is, having started so many games at Stanford. Backing him up with Ryan Tannehill wasn't ideal, but again, a run of QBs prevented me from having a shot at Russell Wilson - he was my QB2 target.

Beyond QB, I missed out on the top flight tight ends, too. So, grabbing Dustin Keller was more of a crutch than a planned strategy. Again, with so many players coming off the board between picks, when there's a run at a position you need there's not much you can do about it. My intent was to take Keller and come back with Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph or Jared Cook. That didn't happen, so I punted and grabbed Jordan Cameron much later. Cameron is the "swing for the fence" type of pick that I don't mind making in this format.

The strength of my team will certainly be my receivers - Dez, Crabtree, LaFell, Steve Smith (STL) and Keshawn Martin - and my RBs, as long as Peterson doesn't encounter any unexpected setbacks. I was ecstatic to grab Michael Bush in this format since we start two flexes. Handcuffing Demarco with Felix was merely a bonus. -BH

Chet Gresham, The Fake Football, @Chet_G

I've never been in a 20-team draft, so I really didn't know what to expect. I was afeared! Going in, my only strategy was to get a quarterback not named Mark Sanchez as my starter. So with the 11th pick I went with Drew Brees (the tallest quarterback on my team). After that it was all downhill, while I tried to grab loose rocks and twigs named Doug Martin, Dwayne Bowe and Kevin Smith.

I have a fake football crush on Doug Martin, and you should as well. All those Ray Rice comparisons aren't hyperbole. The dude can run and catch and do other footbally things at an elevated level, whereas LeGarrette Blount looks like a snail trying to chase his own tail. So I mainly tried to grab guys I see with good upside, since there's no way you can win a 20-team league with average players. A player like Kevin Smith fits perfectly. His upside in the Lions offense is out of this world, but of course he could be hurt walking to the bathroom.

So that was my "strategy" going into this monstrosity of a league! -CG

Mike Woellert, Pro Football Focus, @PFF_MWoellert

My strategy heading into the draft was to try and grab the best player available, no matter the position. My main focus was to grab an elite QB within the first two rounds (which goes against my typical draft strategy), just because of the scarcity of starting QBs within a 20-team league. I had pick 1.12, so I was going to draft one of the top-4 QBs and I ended up landing Stafford with my first pick. Within the draft, there were going to be long gaps between next picks, so I was realistic in thinking that there were going to be no sleepers and to just adapt and adjust throughout. If there was someone I liked and thought was a good value, no matter the round, I had to consider taking him because the chance of that player getting back to you was slim to none.

I usually try to lock up two RBs within the first three rounds, but I was steadfastly determined to get an elite QB. At my pick in the second, I went WR just because of the roster requirements of starting three in such a deep league. Roddy was the best WR at that spot; I was targeting Marshall, but he went a few picks before me. Rounds 2-3 saw the rest of the second and third-tier QBs get snatched up pretty quickly; at that point, again, I was going to try and get the best player available. I noticed that Dez was dropping and he was my target, but he, like Marshall, went a few spots before me. So I grabbed Bush, which I thought was decent value in a PPR, but in no way would I recommend him as a RB1 in any standard league. I tried to round out my starting lineup with the next few picks: DeSean Jackson, Mark Ingram, Rashad Jennings and Owen Daniels.

My depth is lacking, but so is everyone else's. I did land some of my favorite WR sleeper targets in Andre Roberts and Josh Gordon, as I just need Roberts to hold off Michael Floyd throughout the season for snaps. I also thought Ronnie Brown was a decent late round flier in the event of another Ryan Mathews injury this season. All in all, the team turned out a little better than expected. We'll see, but it was definitely a fun draft. -MW

Ross Miles, Pro Football Focus, 2011 Fantasy Pros IDP accuracy champ, @PFF_RossMiles

My strategy for this draft was pretty simple: Stick to my draft board with the most severe conviction, and try not to waiver for any players who are personal favorites (and who would be a reach). In a 20-team league, there were huge gaps between picks and it was easy to miscalculate on players "falling back" to you. If my board indicated someone was the BPA, or offered good value, I generally took them.

As a strong believer of drafting RB-RB in Rounds 1 and 2, I was pleased to see a three-down back in Trent Richardson on the board for me at 1.13. Then the flurry of QB picks made me take Eli Manning at 2.08 as I didn't want to be left with a middle-of-the-road guy, and felt Manning was the safer bet than Vick. Starting three WRs then meant I wanted to flesh out the receiving options on my roster with the next few picks, so I went WR-WR-WR and picked Demaryius Thomas, Miles Austin and Denarius Moore in Rounds 3-5.

I had a few sleepers and deep sleepers noted down that myself and other PFF staffers like in 2012, so I also made sure to grab a few of those like Kyle Rudolph, Leonard Hankerson, Shane Vereen and Dwayne Allen to fill out the back-end of my roster. I was frustrated to miss on Tebow and Lance Kendricks in the late rounds as bench options, but overall I felt I assembled a solid looking starting roster with potential on the bench. -RM

Jason and Justin Sablich, New York Times, @5thDownFantasy

We went with Cam Newton as our rock. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford were already off the board. We could have picked a questionable running back like Jamaal Charles, but we'd rather have something solid to go on.

We love the potential with our WR1 Brandon Marshall this season, with Jay Cutler throwing him the ball again and a super easy schedule. A big score for us that sent everyone groaning in the chat room was the Aaron Hernandez TE pick. We also added Jacob Tamme for our WR/TE flex spot. To us, he was the best WR/TE available on the board at the time. Taking that sleeper off the board made the position that much thinner for the other teams. Beanie Wells was a bit of a gamble, but at that point in the draft, he was the only starter left on the board. His knee looked pretty good the other night, so hopefully he will hold up for most of the year.

We strayed from our normal draft creed and took a defense in the eighth round, but it is the Niners, who project to be the best defense in the league by just about everybody on planet Earth. With this many teams, the waiver wire is super thin and we don't want to mess around with trying to get a different starting unit every week.

Overall, we're very pleased with our squad and think we'll be in the hunt for a title, though it doesn't get any tougher than a 20-team league of fantasy football experts. -J&JS

Jeff Ratcliffe, Pro Football Focus, @JeffRatcliffe

In a league of this size, my draft strategy was to anchor my team at the four skill positions and then fill in the blanks. While QB is very important in larger leagues like this, RB is so thin this season that I decided to go with Forte at 1.15. I was pretty surprised Gronk fell to me at 2.06 and gladly snatched him up. Jeremy Maclin in the third is a high-floor guy with 100-catch upside — and speaking of upside, I took my QB, Robert Griffin III, in the fourth.

The league format allows you to start up to three TEs, so with my options thin elsewhere, I grabbed two more TE1s in Fred Davis and Jared Cook. Austin Collie in the eighth is admittedly a big gamble, but with this group of owners you have to be willing to roll the dice on upside. And yes, I did take the last starting QB on the board in round 13 when I selected the incomparable Mark Sanchez. Several showers later, and I still feel dirty about that one. -JR

Pat Fitzmaurice, Pro Football Weekly, 2011 Fantasy Pros Invitational champ, @FitzPFW

You have to be prepared to make sacrifices in a 20-team league. No one is going to be strong at every position. This draft was all about deciding what you were willing to forgo.

Touchdown passes are worth six points in this league, so quarterbacks flew off the board quickly. But this league also requires you to fill 11 lineup spots every week, and with that many weekly starters the value of a starting quarterback is diluted. I was willing to forgo a top quarterback in order to load up at what I perceive to be a critical position in this league: Wide receiver. You start three every week, and you can start up to five depending on how you use the two flex spots. You can't afford to suck at a position from which you derive so many of your starters.

I had to seize the opportunity to grab a good running back with my first pick, and Marshawn Lynch served me well in this league last year. I don't think he'll be suspended, so I had no reservations about taking him with pick No. 16. Then I hit the WR position hard with my next three picks. AJ Green, Julio Jones and Andre Johnson were taken in front of me in the second round, so I grabbed Larry Fitzgerald, the second-ranked receiver on my board despite the Cardinals' QB woes. In the third and fourth rounds, I went for Antonio Brown and Eric Decker, who both seem headed for big years. DeAngelo Williams fell to me late in the fifth round, and in the sixth I finally took my quarterback, Carson Palmer. My biggest regret is passing on Anquan Boldin in the fifth round, opting instead for Jonathan Dwyer. Though I like Dwyer, Boldin was a rock-solid value at that point, and I would have felt more comfortable with him than I do with Randy Moss, whom I grabbed early in the next round. Tight end was another position of sacrifice for me; I'm hoping to wring one more productive season out of Dallas Clark.

With only four bench spots, there's going to be a great deal of churn at the bottom of everyone's rosters, so I was willing to take some aggressive swings on sleepers with my later picks. If one of them comes through early on, great. If not, time to start churning the bottom of the roster. Two of the long-shot bets are Indy's Vick Ballard and Detroit's Joique Bell, intriguing talents trying to stake claims in unsettled backfields. -PF

Paul Greco, FantasyPros911, @PaulGreco

When it comes to unconventional leagues, all your strategies go out the door. In the Fantasy Pros Invitational there are 20 teams, with 11 starters each. There's no such thing as a sleeper, but potential for plenty of busts. Risks will be made and for those fortunate enough to get the reward, they will be deemed the best of the best. Glad I'm a part of this league, with all eyes on us in the fantasy sports industry. -PG

Dave Richard, CBS Sports, @daverichard

(Ed. note: I don't think I have a blurb from Dave, but I can't say that with absolute certainty. There were lots of blurbs flying around in the days after the draft. In any case, I'm guessing that Dave is happy with his team. People who draft Julio Jones generally seem happy. Dave is a delightful in-draft chatter, if you were wondering. Follow the man on Twitter. He's a legend in the business, a terrific gamer).

Andy Behrens ("Secret Treasure Loaf"), Yahoo! Sports, 2009 Fantasy Pros season accuracy champ (but c'mon, that was forever ago), @andybehrens

Well, I was relatively happy with the way things went in Rounds 1-9, considering my draft slot. The final rounds of this draft were painful, as other owners emptied my queue as quickly as I could fill it. I wanted Vick Ballard, Rod Streater, Russell Wilson, Dwayne Allen and various others, but got none of 'em. I'll need either Randall Cobb or Harry Douglas to be not-terrible if I'm going to make another playoff run. Both receivers are tied to excellent offenses and terrific QBs, so there's a chance.

I seem to draft Ryan Williams and/or David Wilson in most leagues, though I have no direct connection to Virginia Tech. It's just one of those things. Those two both have talent to spare, and they're involved in committee-ish arrangements with fragile backfield partners. We just had the Wilson discussion a few days ago. Draft, wait, enjoy.

My tight end situation is dreadful, although there's at least some hope for Tony Moeaki. The Chiefs had big plans for him before last year's ACL injury. If this would have been a standard-sized league, I probably would have taken Jimmy Graham with one of my first two picks. But the 20-team thing was a problem; it was miserable watching a dozen running backs fly off the board before I had a chance to pick. If I'd known going in that I could have snagged Peyton Hillis and Frank Gore in Rounds 3-4, then I would have taken Graham and Green at the top.

Cutler? Love him. You should, too. -AB

RJ White, Fantasy Football Cafe, @rjwhite1

With my first pick at No. 20 overall, I knew I had a choice to make: Play catch up at running back, overdraft a wide receiver, or take a QB I feel is a top-five guy this year — and who, if he proves me correct, gives me a shot to win every week. I did that with Matt Ryan, a guy with incredible upside when one considers the new uptempo offense, his remarkable 1-2 WR combo, his quality secondary options (Jacquizz Rodgers, Tony Gonzalez, Harry Douglas), and his already solid 2011 campaign (29 TDs). I've said on the Cafe that I'd take Ryan over Cam Newton this year, and I'm even putting him right there with Matthew Stafford after seeing him a bit in the preseason.

With my other 1/2 pick, I was happy to nab Jimmy Graham, a player that gives me an enormous advantage at tight end in a 20-team league. Starting tight ends in our league currently include Scott Chandler, Tony Moeaki, Kellen Winslow, Dallas Clark and Marcedes Lewis, while a few others are on rosters as potential flex plays. By starting Graham every week, I give myself a great shot at starting with a 10-point advantage in almost any match-up.

In keeping with the theme of making up for a RB/WR deficiency, I took David Akers and the Pittsburgh defense before runs on the positions started. I'm the first guy to de-emphasize the importance of a kicker and to play match-ups on defense, but in this format, I like the stability these guys provide, letting me focus on finding gold at RB and WR rather than worry about who I'm starting at each position each week.

Going QB/TE with my first two picks meant I'd be hurting at running back and receiver. However, I was happy to land Ben Tate with pick 100, and he should provide RB2 numbers for me even as Houston's backup, while potentially giving me a stud RB1 if something happens to Arian Foster. I'll have Rashard Mendenhall in the second half to help with a playoff push, and as long as Jonathan Stewart doesn't disappear, I think I'm OK at running back.

Stevie Johnson provides a reliable presence at receiver for me, while Titus Young is a breakout candidate if he usurps Nate Burleson early on. I love Jerome Simpson this season, and I'm happy to wait a few weeks for him to serve his suspension, as he and Kyle Rudolph should elevate the Minnesota passing attack. Peyton Manning locked on to old buddy Brandon Stokley at times this preseason, and if Stokley is indeed the regular slot man for the Broncos, I think he's worth starting every week. Steve Breaston and Early Doucet give me a couple guys to start while I wait for my bench to get healthy and return from suspension. Cole Beasley is a flier that will wind up cut if he isn't the WR3 for Dallas early on. -RJW

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Report: Lions working phones for running back – Kevin Smith | DET

28 Aug
2012
CBS Sports' Jason LaCanfora reports Lions GM Martin Mayhew has been calling other teams in search of a running back.
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Kevin Smith ‘twisted’ ankle, may return soon – Kevin Smith | DET

26 Aug
2012
The Detroit News confirms that Kevin Smith's Saturday night ankle injury was not severe.
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Kevin Smith: X-rays negative & no high sprain – Kevin Smith | DET

25 Aug
2012
Kevin Smith told reporters following Saturday night's preseason game that X-rays came back negative for a fracture of his right ankle, and he also does not have a high ankle sprain.
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Kevin Smith reinjures troublesome right ankle – Kevin Smith | DET

25 Aug
2012
Kevin Smith exited Saturday night's preseason game with a right ankle injury.
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Mostly NFL Notes: What to do with Chris Johnson

13 Aug
2012
by in General

It's tough what to make of Chris Johnson. He was considered a bust last year, and while that may seem harsh after totaling 1,463 yards, he scored just four touchdowns and finished below 4.0 YPC, easily a career low. In fact, Johnson's 2.1 YPC after contact tied for 58th in the NFL, and he saw just six goal-line carries, while 25 other backs were given more. Part of the problem was Tennessee's continuing decline in run blocking, but there's no doubt Johnson showed up after his holdout a different player, noticeably lacking explosiveness and unable to make defenders miss on his own. Still, the low TD total was what really killed his value, something that was largely out of his control, and with Jake Locker, Jared Cook, Kendall Wright, (possibly) Kenny Britt and the addition of Steve Hutchinson, this offense could be sneaky productive. Johnson, who has totaled more yards from scrimmage over the first four years of his career than any back in the history of the NFL, is still just 26 years old and participated in the team's offseason program for the first time since his 2,006-yard season.

While all reports so far have been glowing, Johnson certainly didn't prove it during the team's first preseason game, when he gained just eight yards on five carries with two egregious drops (a growing problem). Still, offensive coordinator Chris Palmer plans to install a version of the run-and-shoot system this year, which has historically been a big boost to running backs' YPC. With high upside guys like Ryan Mathews and Trent Richardson going down, and with so many other backs having question marks, it's tough not to consider Johnson the No. 4 fantasy RB right now despite him disappointing owners so badly last season.

The Jimmy Graham vs. Rob Gronkowski debate is a pretty good one. The mere thought of not ranking a tight end who just put up a season in which he caught 90 balls for 1,327 yards while scoring 18 touchdowns during his second year in the league No. 1 is ridiculous, but Graham has a strong argument as well, as he actually saw 25 more targets than Gronk despite seeing more than 300 fewer snaps. Graham's 28 red-zone targets led all tight ends, and while he's an inferior blocker to Gronkowski, that might actually help fantasy owners, as he lines up out wide more often. Gronkowski is two and a half years younger, but it's probably safer to bet on volume than record-setting TD production repeating. Both are in terrific passing offenses, but New England's alternative options in Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker trump New Orleans'. And for what it's worth (probably nothing), OC Josh McDaniels has never utilized the tight end in his offense in the past. Still, Gronkowski's YPT (10.7) easily beat Graham's (8.8), and over the final eight games last season, Gronk's 46 receptions, 731 yards and 12 touchdowns would have been the No. 1 fantasy TE in (full) seasons past. It's a tough call, so who ya got?

It's probably crazy, but I'm starting to talk myself into Kevin Smith. At this point, the over/under on Jahvid Best touches this season should probably be 0.5, and Mikel LeShoure is suspended, coming off a serious Achilles injury (coaches have already admitted he may never be the same) and currently hurt. Smith didn't see a single touch from Week 10 in 2010 to Week 10 in 2011, but he impressed in his return. After getting his feet wet in his debut, Smith broke out in Week 11, totaling 201 yards with three touchdowns on just 20 touches in one of the best performances in the NFL last season. He followed that up by totaling 57 yards in one quarter of action on Thanksgiving against the Packers until an ankle injury ended his day. Of course, injuries have been the biggest plague on Smith throughout his career. Ultimately, he finished with a 4.9 YPC mark and seven touchdowns over seven games, proving to be plenty dangerous as a receiver as well. With a full offseason of preparation unlike last year, Smith claims he feels stronger than ever, and in an offense that scored the fourth-most points per game with a young corps that should only get better in 2012, he's in a terrific situation. And for a team that ran the greatest percentage of shotguns last season, his strong blocking is a huge plus. Smith had a remarkable 450 carriers (over 14 games!) during his final year in college, but I'm not sure if that's a point in his favor proving he has it in him to be durable, or if it's the reason he's broken down since entering the NFL and something from which he'll never be able to fully recover.

Austin Collie is creeping up my cheat sheet. He's one year removed from scoring eight touchdowns over nine games (and scored 15 TDs over the first 25 games of his career), and it's safe to throw last season's performance away thanks to absolutely abysmal quarterback play. Collie is being asked to play more on the outside this year, but either way he should see more targets with Pierre Garcon gone and Reggie Wayne soon turning 34 years old. Indy's defense is likely to remain a major problem leading to plenty of pass attempts, and Andrew Luck will be a huge upgrade at the quarterback position even if he experiences some rookie ups and downs. Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen will also be in the mix for looks, and Collie has a history of concussions that needs to be taken seriously, but he's proven to be a strong red-zone threat and has an ADP around 150, making him a nice flier later in drafts.

In most leagues, the fantasy numbers Cam Newton put up last season were equivalent to 5,571 passing yards with 42 touchdown passes. Pretty much everyone is predicting regression in his rushing production, particularly his 14 scores, citing the recent example of Michael Vick going from nine to one over the past two years. While I fully agree repeating 14 rushing scores is highly unlikely, I'd also argue another run at double-digits will happen. Vick is 6-0, 215. Newton is 6-5, 245. Newton had 12 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line last year, which is the same amount as Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch and twice as many as Steven Jackson. Newton converted eight of those carries for touchdowns, making him the league's best goal-line runner. Put differently, nine of his rushing TDs came from six yards or fewer and 13 came from 16 yards or fewer. In fairness, eight of Vick's nine TD rushes in 2010 came from 10 yards or fewer, so this may not be predictive, and it's always possible the Panthers change philosophies and certainly have the backfield to compensate (seriously, what is Carolina thinking? I love both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart but talk about a misuse of resources).

After averaging 299.1 passing yards over the first eight games, Newton got just 207.3 over the second half of the year. It's possible defenses figured him out, but I'd say it's more likely the raw rookie (who got an impressive 7.8 YPA) coming from a very un-pro system in college with a short training camp thanks to the lockout improves greatly as a passer during his second year in the league. Carolina's receiving weapons look bleak after Steve Smith, who is 33, but Brandon LaFell has been praised this offseason, and TE Greg Olsen has talent. Plus, I'm very much the believer in quarterbacks make the wide receiver, not vice versa, at least in the vast majority of cases. Coming out of college, I expected Newton to be a bust in the NFL, but I admit I was dead wrong and now view him as a special talent. It's tough not to rank Aaron Rodgers as the No. 1 fantasy QB, but Newton is right there with Tom Brady and Drew Brees afterward. I'm firmly in the "wait on QBs" camp, but because of his rushing ability and so many question marks in the second tier of running backs (and a bunch of similar WRs after Calvin Johnson), Newton's upside becomes quite enticing at some point.

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Kevin Smith listed as Lions starting tailback – Kevin Smith | DET

07 Aug
2012
Kevin Smith is listed as the starting running back on the Lions' first depth chart of training camp.
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