Lames: Buccaneers sharpening swords for Chiefs, Charles

10 Oct
2012
by in General

Each week the Noise highlights 10 bold names who he believes are destined to torpedo your team leave egg on his face. For those playing the Lames home edition, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues to qualify. As an accountability advocate, results, whether genius or moronic, will post the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 5 Lames in the comments section below.

Tom Brady, NE, QB (95-percent started)
Matchup: at Sea
Tom Terrific? More like Tom Tepid in Seattle. Prior to Week 1, most projected extraordinary production for the two-time MVP this season. Everything was in place. He was a proven commodity surrounded with endless weapons in a pass-heavy system. But Bill Belichick isn't predictable. Shockingly, the Hoodie has called 'pass' just 47.5-percent of the time through five games. Stevan Ridley, and not Brady, has become the engine that drives the offense. Still, the passer hasn't become a fantasy slouch. He currently ranks No. 7 among signal callers in per game average. This week, however, look for him to rank well outside the top-10. CenturyLink Field is an intimidating environment. Brady admitted earlier this week running no-huddle, which was instrumental in New England's win over Denver, in such a raucous venue "will be a challenge." Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers, who both struggled earlier this year in Seattle, would most certainly agree. Overall, the 'Hawks have conceded just 6.0 yards per attempt and the fewest fantasy points to QBs. The defensive line along with blanketing corners Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman are a well-oiled machine. It may sound absurd, but Brady is bench worthy for owners with viable alternatives.

Fearless Forecast: 24-36, 248 passing yards, 1 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 14.4 fantasy points

Jamaal Charles, KC, RB (94-percent started)
Matchup: at TB
When drafted four years ago, no one could've predicted the rusher, 199 pounds soaking wet, was capable of transforming from timeshare back to 30-carry Clydesdale, but that's exactly what he's become. Ridden repeatedly with Peyton Hillis sidelined by a high ankle sprain, the JC of KC has gripped the pigskin an average of 30.7 touches per game over the past three weeks, netting 6.1 yards per touch. Considering his lengthy recovery from a torn ACL, his resurgence is nothing short of remarkable. The workload is very attractive, but Charles, like any rusher, isn't immune from fantasy failure. This week's matchup is tougher than you think. A year ago, Stephen Hawking could've putted his way to 150 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs. In complete disarray under Raheem Morris, they ranked dead last versus the run. But new head honcho, Greg Schiano, has changed the culture, elevating the club's defensive profile. In particular, Gerald McCoy, who is the fourth-best run defender in the league according to Pro Football Focus, has ramped up his game. Strength versus strength will be the theme by the Bay this Sunday. At home, Tampa has surrendered just 3.5 yards per carry to RBs this year. But unless Brady Quinn, who floundered in 12 previous career starts, performs semi-competently, Charles could disappoint.

Fearless Forecast: 22 carries, 96 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 10 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 12.8 fantasy points

Willis McGahee, Den, RB (67-percent started)
Matchup: at SD
McGahee's birth may have preceded the construction of Stonehenge, but the ageless wonder has staved off Father Time, displaying nimble feet, versatility and burst reminiscent of his pre-injury days with the Bills. He's averaged 4.5 yards per carry and is on pace for a 1,204 rushing yard, 10-TD campaign. If he continues on that track it would be his finest fantasy season since 2004. Despite him losing a critical fumble last week against New England, Peyton Manning and cohorts remain committed to getting McGahee the ball in multiple situations. However, the Bolts are a stiff adversary. Corey Liuget and Shaun Phillips have done an excellent job sniffing out the run. As a whole, San Diego has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this year and has limited opposing rushers to a modest 3.8 yards per carry. In a pivotal intradivisional game, McGahee may get jolted.

Fearless Forecast: 16 carries, 66 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 13 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 10.1 fantasy points

Jordy Nelson, GB, WR (91-percent started)
Matchup: at Hou
The newest spokesperson for the Wisconsin Department of Tourism isn't exactly luring travelers. His underwhelming performance on the field is bad for business in reality and fantasy. With or without Greg Jennings in uniform, Nelson, no longer a secret, has folded under added pressure. Only once this season has he reached double digits in fantasy scoring. And that was against the New Orleans Aints. On a per game basis teammates James Jones and Randall Cobb have outperformed him. Still, he's enticed a healthy 7.2 targets per game, but with only one TD on the season, some owners are strongly considering keeping their pair of Jordache in the closet, especially this week. Jonathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson are a defensive tandem to fear. According to Pro Football Focus, both rank inside the top-25 in pass coverage among cornerbacks. Their stellar play combined with J.J. Watt's disruptive nature at line  are major concerns for Jordy. Unless Green Bay recently signed a group of ogres to protect the pocket, Aaron Rodgers will likely be under duress early and often, limiting Nelson targets downfield.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 45 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.5 fantasy points

Brian Hartline, Mia, WR (50-percent started)
Matchup: vs. StL
Two weeks ago the Barracuda devoured everything in his path accomplishing what Mark Duper and Mark Clayton never did in their illustrious careers. His 253 yards against Arizona set a new franchise record, at the time a "bittersweet" accolade for the humble receiver. No surprise Hartline crashed back down to earth last week in Cincinnati. Attracting extra attention on numerous occasions, he caught just four passes for 59 yards on five targets. Another vanilla effort could be on tap versus visiting St. Louis. The Rams, no longer 'rancid' defensively, have locked down the pass fairly consistently. Corners Bradley Fletcher and Janoris Jenkins combined have surrendered a mere 10.7 yards per catch to their assignments. Throw in St. Louis' aggressive pass rush, and Hartline is more deep league WR3 than 12-team WR2 material in Week 6.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.1 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 6 LAMES

TEAM HUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK

Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Flames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Mondays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader Record: 14-21, (40.0%)

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

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Lames: Newton to post cool numbers in Hotlanta

26 Sep
2012
by in General

Each week the Noise highlights 10 bold names who he believes are destined to torpedo your team leave egg on his face. For those playing the Lames home edition, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues to qualify. As an accountability advocate, results, whether genius or moronic, will post the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 4 Lames in the comments section below.

Cam Newton, Car, QB
Matchup: at Atl
If you ask Steve Smith, Cam couldn't lead a starving pack of 350-pound linemen to an all-you-can-eat nacho bar. His sulking attitude when faced with a large deficit last week was a prime example. Instead of encouraging his teammates to keep fighting, he waived the white flag, sitting on the bench hiding under a towel. A similar scenario could unfold this week. Atlanta, which lost arguably its best pass defender, Brent Grimes, Week 1, has fought through adversity. Over the past two weeks the Falcons secondary bewildered Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers, allowing just one touchdown while forcing five interceptions. Former Eagle Asante Samuel has championed the cause, limiting assignments to just 10.1 yards per catch, the eighth-best mark among corners with at least 200 snaps. Though Cam's completion percentage is up by nearly four percent compared to last year, he's made several erroneous decisions which have led to a number of costly turnovers. He's on pace to throw nearly 10 more picks compared to his rookie season. Last year, his rushing stats bailed him out of an otherwise dreadful performance at the Georgia Dome (237-0-3, 47-1). This year, however, the 'fearless' leader won't be so lucky. If you have viable alternatives, can Cam.

Fearless Forecast: 18-28, 232 passing yards, 0 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 34 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 19.0 fantasy points

DeMarco Murray, Dal, RB
Matchup: vs. Chi
Starting Murray, who runs behind an offensive line that finds run-blocking challenging, against one of the league's stingiest defenses is about as appealing as being the meat in a sumo wrestler love sandwich. Through three games, the Bears have sniffed out the run effectively. Donald Brown, Cedric Benson and Steven Jackson averaged a combined 3.9 yards per carry and 66.0 total yards against the Monsters of the Midway. At times, Murray has displayed the explosiveness and versatility of a uniquely gifted rusher. Other times, as Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News recently noted, he's bogged down in the backfield, indicative in his seven carries for negative yards last week versus Tampa. As a result, he's currently the 34th-best rusher, one spot behind derailed tank Peyton Hillis, in overall run performance according to Pro Football Focus. Because of Chicago's assertiveness in the trenches and Murray's susceptibility to backpedaling, it doesn't bode well for a standout effort. At best, he's a midrange RB2 in 12-team and deeper leagues this week.

Fearless Forecast: 18 carries, 66 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 15 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 11.1 fantasy points

Trent Richardson, Cle, RB
Matchup: at Bal
T-Pain has made it very clear, he's not afraid of "Uncle Ray." But this isn't your run-of-the-mill creepy Uncle who sits around in his skivvies all day munching on Pizza Hut personal death vehicles while watching animals copulate on Nat Geo Wild. No, the Ravens' 'Uncle,' Ray Lewis, is a multi-time Pro Bowler and future first ballot Hall of Famer who is still executing at a high level. And for that reason, the rookie should be shivering in his cleats. Baltimore, no surprise, is an elite run defense, especially at home. Over its past 10 games at M&T, visiting rushers averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. Richardson is a punishing runner who also contributes handsomely in the pass game, but the Browns' bland offensive line hasn't opened holes with much consistency. Against Philly and Buffalo, for example, Richardson netted a lowly 2.2 yards per carry. Another voluminous week is on tap for T-Pain, but given the extremely difficult matchup and run-blocking concerns he should only be stomached in 12-team and deeper formats. A lackluster high-carry, low-yardage yield is on tap.

Fearless Forecast: 19 carries, 58 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.2 fantasy points

DeSean Jackson, Phi, WR
Matchup: vs. NYG
At first glance a matchup against a banged up Giants secondary that's occasionally struggled defending passes beyond 20 yards would be very appealing, especially for a speedster like Jackson. But, as Admiral Ackbar would say, "It's a trap!" The return of Prince Amukamara to New York's defensive backfield greatly bolstered a unit in need. His stellar play last week in Carolina was exactly what the doctor ordered (25.0 catch% allowed). Jackson, motivated to prove he still belongs among the league's elite playmakers, has improved his overall level of play this year. He ranks in the top-20 league-wide in receiving yards and yards per catch (16.7). Still, the matchup is far from encouraging. The Giants front seven are an aggressive bunch that should gash Philly's porous offensive line. That happens, and Michael Vick, as usual, will be running for his life, hindering opportunities downfield to Jackson. Add that to Jeremy Maclin's expected return, and chances are, the wideout could vanish for long stretches. Consider him a WR3 in deeper formats this week.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 46 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.6 fantasy points

Marques Colston, NO, WR
Matchup: at GB
Those wondering why New Orleans is winless through three weeks should look no further than what little Colston has accomplished. In the Saints' past four losses stretching back to last year, the wideout failed to eclipse 75-yards receiving. Typically, when he's been heavily involved in the pass game, 'Nawlins has thrived. His slow start can be primarily attributed to a nagging foot injury. But another explanation for his lack of production stems from the uneven play of the New Orleans offense as a whole. Drew Brees, under intense heat from opposing pass rushers, has thrown under duress 36.8-percent of the time, not a far cry from what Michael Vick and Jay Cutler have experienced this season. That intense pressure added to Colston's physical limitations and the Saints' spread-the-love nature are why he's made a minimal impact. This week, Sam Shields could be another reason. The 13th-best cover-man currently in the game per Pro Football Focus, he's surrendered a catch rate of just 40-percent this season. Though points should be aplenty in Lambeau this week, Colston, yet again, is poised to underachieve.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 52 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.9 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 4 LAMES

TEAM HUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK

Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Flames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Mondays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader Record: 6-15 (28.6%)

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

NFL video from Yahoo! Sports:

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Tags: , , , , , Lames, , , , , , Uncle
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Flames: Fred Jackson’s timing couldn’t be more impeccable

25 Sep
2012
by in General

Each week the Noise highlights 12-13 somewhat obscure, unobvious names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post the results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 4 Flames in the comments section below.

Kevin Kolb, Ari, QB (1-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Mia
The much maligned Kolb, designated the "Suckiest QB in the League" by yours truly after Blaine Gabbert looked semi-competent in Week 1, hasn't exactly lived down to his rather disparaging handle. In actuality, he's performed exceedingly well after seizing the starting reigns from gimpy John Skelton two weeks ago. Over two-plus games, he's played interception-free football, scoring five touchdowns (4 pass, 1 rush) while completing 64.4 percent of his attempts. To ensure Kolb's success, Ken Whisenhunt and company have tailored the playbook to the QB's strengths. Knowing his issues with passes beyond 20-yards, the staff has installed more plays indicative of a West Coast scheme, short hooks, shallow crosses and quick slants familiar to Kolb during his days in Philly. So far it's worked. Expect that trend to continue this week against Miami. The Fins' back-end has been problematic this year for Joe Philbin. Corners Sean Smith and Richard Marshall have performed marginally at best. Through three weeks, the tandem has allowed a YPA of 7.6 and consecutive 300-yard passing games (To Carson Palmer and Mark Sanchez). With Kolb's confidence sky-high and Larry Fitzgerald finally back on track, a useful Week 4 tally is in the offing.

Fearless Forecast: 18-27, 243 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 12 rushing yards, 21.3 fantasy points

[Video: Green Bay TV station uses 'Replacement Weather Guy' to make a point]

Fred Jackson, Buf, RB (13-percent started)
Matchup: vs. NE
It's official. Jackson possesses the regeneration power of the Incredible Hulk. According to the rusher, he's '70-75 percent' sure he will retake the field this week against New England. Chan Gailey, astonished by the rusher's rapid recovery, is also optimistic his starter will return to practice by Thursday at the latest. Assuming he doesn't trip over any speed-bumps, the plowshare is highly employable in Week 4. The NFL's third-leading rusher, C.J. Spiller, is likely to miss this week's contest with a shoulder strain. And although he filled in admirably last week, third-stringer Tashard Choice will assuredly take a backseat to the hungry incumbent. The Pats, led by buffet closer Vincent Wilfork, have defended the run stiffly thus far, conceding just 3.1 yards per carry to RBs. But pounded between the tackles by Ray Rice last week, they are hardly impenetrable. The Bills offensive line, one of the league's best in terms of run-blocking, should control the line of scrimmage. Jackson's history against New England also bodes well. In eight career contests versus the Pats, he's averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Ready to prove he's not ready to relinquish the starting job to Spiller, he should be counted on as a RB2 in 10-team and deeper leagues . After all, motivation is a very influential fantasy fueler.

Fearless Forecast: 16 carries, 76 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 16 receiving yards,  1 touchdown, 17.4 fantasy points

Cedric Benson, GB, RB (28-percent started)
Matchup: vs. NO
Entering the season, many within the fantasy community believed Mr. 3.0 YPC would emit a rather putrid, Limburger cheese odor. But the rusher's first three weeks, though rather bland, haven't smelled like unwashed feet. In spurts, he's looked terrific. He's displayed surprising versatility, tackle-breaking power and plus vision, a key trait in Green Bay's zone-blocking scheme. His double-digit effort in the Seattle screwing, though modest in total yards (63-4-1), was laudable. After Monday's shipwreck at CenturyLink, Aaron Rodgers will undoubtedly unleash hell on New Orleans (Believe me, the Devil would be kinder), which should thrust Benson into many goal-to-go situations. An end-zone dive or three could be on the horizon. The Saints, thumped by the JC of KC in Week 3, have allowed a whopping 215.3 total yards per game, six touchdowns and 4.8 yards per carry to rushers this year. Given the unusual circumstances and juicy matchup, it would be no shock if Benson finished inside the RB top-5 this week. Start him with the utmost confidence.

[More: Seattle-Green Bay controversy prompts massive change in payout, frustrates bettors]

Fearless Forecast: 19 carries, 113 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 8 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns, 25.6 fantasy points

Justin Blackmon, Jax, WR (8-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Cin
For most rookie wide receivers not named T.Y. Hilton, the adage "Rome wasn't built in a day" applies. Most often it can take weeks, months or even years for targets to fully transition into the league, no matter how talented. Even Calvin Johnson took his lumps in his rookie season. Blackmon could follow a similar path. Nonexistent over the first three weeks, the first-round pick has barely registered a blip on the fantasy radar. As a result, he's been mass-dropped, even in competitive formats. Mike Mularkey attributes his struggles to poor routes and a pressing attitude. Still, he leads all Jags receivers in snaps (Blackmon - 164, Robinson - 122). Inevitably, he'll arrive. He's simply too gifted not to. If there was ever a week for Blackmon to make a splash, this is it. The Jags host Cincinnati, a defense reeling in all facets. Down Dre Kirkpatrick until the end of October and, possibly, Leon Hall (calf) again this week, the already vulnerable Bengals secondary is even more exploitable. Combined Nate Clements and Terrance Newman have surrendered a 68.0 catch percentage through three games. In the Battle of the Cats, look for the rookie to pack some thunder.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 57 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.4 fantasy points

Owen Daniels, Hou, TE (28-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Ten
Hampered by nagging injuries over the past couple seasons, the now healthy oversized target has regained respectability among deep leaguers. Through three weeks he's quietly attracted 22 targets, the seventh-most among TEs, hauling in 13 receptions for 160 yards and a touchdown. His subsequent 7.3 per game average in standard formats ranks ahead of roster mainstays Brandon Pettigrew, Jermichael Finley and Jermaine Gresham. Expect his standing to rise come Sunday. Suffice it to say, the Titans are allergic to defending tight ends. Thus far, they've allowed a staggering 19.8 fantasy points per game to TEs, the highest amount in virtual pigskin. Even Dante Rosario torched them for three scores in Week 2. Given Tennessee's shortcomings against the run, Arian Foster and Ben Tate should dominate touches, but when forced skyward look for Matt Schaub to lock in on No. 81.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 53 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.0 fantasy points

SHOCKER SPECIAL (Under 10-percent started)

Ronnie Hillman, Den, RB (0-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Oak
Inactive the first two weeks of the season due to physical and mental limitations, Denver's diminutive spark-plug, who logged his first action of the season last week against Houston, is on the verge of becoming a household fantasy name. Starter Willis McGahee, highly questionable after suffering a rib injury in the third quarter last Sunday, has strong odds of sitting this week. If he's unable to go, a committee of unknown distribution will likely be installed. Because Knowshon Moreno and Lance Ball are about as exciting as eating tofu, the more flavorful Hillman has a shot to head up the platoon, provided he can protect Peyton Manning. The San Diego St. product is a dynamic, slashing runner with plus acceleration and tender hands, a Darren Sproles-type. If gifted an opportunity, he will pay instant dividends. Oakland, which hasn't defended the flat particularly well, has given up the second-most receptions to RBs on the young year. The Raiders have also allowed 4.2 yards per carry and 161.3 total yards per game to rushers. Add it up, and those hard-pressed for options at the FLEX should roll the dice on the rookie.

Fearless Forecast (If no McGahee): 11 carries, 44 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 23 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.7 fantasy points

[MJD: The absurdly premature 2012 playoff picture]

BONUS WEEK 4 FLAMES

TEAM HUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK

Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Flames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Mondays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader Record: 14-7 (66.7%)

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

Fantasy Football video from Yahoo! Sports:

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Lames: Owners, replacement refs could be disappointed with McCoy’s effort in desert

19 Sep
2012
by in General

Each week the Noise highlights 10 bold names who he believes are destined to torpedo your team leave egg on his face. For those playing the Lames home edition, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues to qualify. As an accountability advocate, results, whether genius or moronic, will post the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 3 Lames in the comments section below.

Tom Brady, NE, QB (99-percent started)
Matchup: at Bal
This week, Ray Lewis and friends will stain the "toughest metrosexual's" sheepskin UGG boots. Fresh off an earth-shattering home loss to Arizona, the Pats will attempt to regain their composure in one of the NFL's most thankless environments, M&T Bank Stadium. Though his final Week 2 output was quite respectable (316-1-1), Brady was largely uneven against Arizona. Cardinals bookends Calais Campbell and Darnell Docket dominated the line of scrimmage, forcing four sacks. Despite being under duress just 19-percent of the time, Brady looked occasionally bewildered. The increased pocket pressure and loss of Aaron Hernandez in the first half knocked New England off-kilter. Another onslaught should be expected in Baltimore. Over their first two games (vs. CIN and PHI), the Ravens blitzed on 40-percent of the time. In total, they've forced six turnovers and tallied six sacks. If the Pats' pass protection again wanes, it could be another long, frustrating four quarters for the sloth-footed signal caller. It's imperative historical safety blanket Wes Welker, whose sudden decline has been the subject of much discussion, elevates his game. Recall in the conference championship a season ago versus Baltimore Brady salvaged an otherwise lousy day (239-0-2) with a 1-yard TD sneak. In the rematch, the model-faced QB may resemble Medusa.

Fearless Forecast: 24-38, 255 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 2 interceptions, 0 rushing yards, 14.8 fantasy points

LeSean McCoy, Phi, RB (99-percent started)
Matchup: at Ari
Many will claim the Noise has officially lost his marbles advertising one of the league's elite rushers in this space, but any player, regardless of clout, isn't completely immune to fantasy failure. Last season, Arian Foster, who bested McCoy in per game average by almost a full point, registered three Lame-worthy performances on the year. The Eagles Pro Bowler, one of the steadiest producers in the virtual game, totaled only four underwhelming efforts. He is arguably the most well-rounded back in the league today. But don't be shocked if Week 3 is his first face-plant of 2012. The Cardinals, as discussed above, are a defense on the rise. Their mind-blowing containment of New England last week was completely unexpected. Still, even given its ups and downs, Arizona has executed well at home in recent years, especially versus the run. In their past nine games at the UPS, the Desert Birds have conceded just 3.7 yards per carry to visiting rushers, including limiting Marshawn Lynch to 97 yards on 23 touches (4.2 ypt) Week 1. McCoy blasted AZ for 93 total yards and a touchdown last season in Philly. However, in the rematch, a pair of aces may not be in the Cards. Replacement refs with fantasy interests be warned.

Fearless Forecast: 21 carries, 73 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 18 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 12.1 fantasy points

Adrian Peterson, Min, RB (89-percent started)
Matchup: vs. SF
What Peterson has accomplished roughly nine months removed to annihilating his ACL/MCL is nothing short of extraordinary. His regenerative healing factor is akin to Wolverine's. Through two games, he's splashed six twice and totaled 167 yards, averaging a characteristic 4.4 yards per carry. Impressively 71 of his 144 rushing yards have come after contact. However, despite his miraculous recovery and early season performance, the Purple Jesus likely won't carry his followers to the Promised Land in Week 3. San Francisco's impervious frontline presents a major roadblock. Hole plungers Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman currently rank inside the top-7 in run coverage according to Pro Football Focus. The pair have already combined for 10 stops (Plays that result in offensive failure). Equally daunting, since Week 1 of 2010, a span of 34 regular season games, opposing rushers have averaged just 3.4 yards per carry versus the Gold Panners. And only four have eclipsed the century mark in a game during that span. Peterson may be at or near 100-percent, but this week, he'll likely churn out only half his normal output.

Fearless Forecast: 17 carries, 58 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 11 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.2 fantasy points

Vincent Jackson, TB, WR (68-percent started)
Matchup: at Dal
Though Mike Williams flashed playmaker skills in his rookie season, most agree, big-play ability the upside of Jackson's hasn't been seen in Tampa since the days of Joey Galloway. And that was an eternity ago. But for fantasy's rollercoaster ride, it's one week up, one week down. Coming off a monstrous game in New York (10-5-128-1), it would only seem appropriate for Jackson to pull a Houdini in Big D. Dallas defensive backs Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne have played marvelously thus far. Versus the rival Giants Week 1 and the Seahawks last Sunday, no wideout surpassed 60 yards against them. Most outstandingly, Carr has surrendered a mere 37.5-percent catch rate. In other words, the man has blanketed his assignments. Jackson's height and supreme athleticism are tough to contain, but last year in games where he topped the 100-yard mark the week before, he averaged just 36 yards in the followup. Again, the man is the essence of inconsistency. Take the odds. He disappears in Dallas.

Fearless Forecast: 3 receptions, 47 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 6.9 fantasy points

Demaryius Thomas, Den, WR (90-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Hou
When Thomas was separated at birth from twin Brandon Marshall, he apparently took both of their hands with him. The wideout, whose muscular frame and excellent athleticism are eerily similar to the ex-Bronco's, has become the apple of Peyton Manning's eye, particularly inside the red-zone. In the early going, he's out-targeted teammate Eric Decker 18-to-15, hauling in 13 receptions for 188 yards and two touchdowns. His resulting 15.4 fantasy points per mark sits atop the pole position among wide receivers. His breakout season, which many projected once elder Manning came aboard, is well underway. However, even the studliest pass catchers take the occasional siesta, an unfortunate outcome that could impact Thomas this week. Houston, one of the league's finest defenses top-to-bottom, has grounded the pass. Of the 21 balls thrown Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph's direction only 42.8 percent reached their destinations unobstructed. No surprise, both DBs rank inside Pro Football Focus' pass coverage top-20. And don't automatically assume their soft early schedule has greatly inflated the pair's prowess. Joseph was especially spectacular last year. Thomas is a strong, physical receiver who wins most one-on-one battles, but Joseph, though giving up three inches, is equally tenacious. If Manning's downfield throws flutter again, it could be a quiet day in Denver for DT.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 58 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.8 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 3 LAMES

TEAM HUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK

Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Flames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Mondays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader Record: 2-12, (14.3%)

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

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Lames: Place the blame on CJ2LAME in Week 2

12 Sep
2012
by in General

Each week the Noise highlights 10 bold names who he believes are destined to torpedo your team leave egg on his face. For those playing the Lames home edition, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues to qualify. As an accountability advocate, results, whether genius or moronic, will post the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 2 Lames in the comments section below.

Michael Vick, Phi, QB (70-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Bal
Badgered repeatedly last week against an average Browns defense, Vick was lucky he didn't leave C-Town folded up in a box. According to Pro Football Focus, 25 of his 61 dropbacks were under duress. Unsurprisingly, the added pressure caused him to make hasty throws, four of which connected with Cleveland defenders. Overall, he exhibited poor decision-making and Blaine Gabbert-like awareness. Vick, a little rusty after an extended layoff during the preseason, isn't completely to blame for his unsteady Week 1 performance. The Eagles offensive line couldn't protect the pocket from a group of handicapped sloths. Its dreadful execution better improve rapidly or the Philly pass game will again crumble. Baltimore absolutely declawed the Bengals Monday night, collapsing the pocket early and often. In total, Andy Dalton, blitzed 48.7 percent of the time, was a victim of four sacks. If the Eagles beef doesn't jell quickly it could be a long, frustrating afternoon for No. 7. In leagues where turnovers are heavily penalized, Vick is bench worthy in Week 2.

Fearless Forecast: 20-35, 234 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 24 rushing yards, fumble lost, 19.1 fantasy points

Chris Johnson, Ten, RB (92-percent started)
Matchup: at SD
Those who gladly took on the risk and selected CJ2LAME in Round 1 are bleeding profusely. After posting 11 carries for four yards versus New England last Sunday, his supporters, convinced 2011 was an anomaly, fell on a collective sword. Embarrassingly, six of his touches went for zero or negative yards. Only his six receptions for 47 yards salvaged what was otherwise a disastrous season debut. And that was only in PPR leagues. It's the same old broken record for Johnson. The Titans offensive line, consumed whole by Vincent Wilfork, failed to sustain blocks. Meanwhile, the rusher, always swinging for the fences, didn't attack the line with much vigor, tapdancing in the backfield while looking for daylight. Outside of underneath coverage, the Chargers were very active at the point of attack versus Oakland. Darren McFadden was limited to a minuscule 2.1 yards per carry on 15 attempts. Considering Tennessee's run-blocking issues and the hostile environment, Johnson should ride the pine for owners with viable alternatives (e.g. C.J. Spiller).

Fearless Forecast: 14 carries, 44 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 28 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 10.2 fantasy points

Darren McFadden, Oak, RB (98-percent started)
Matchup: at Mia
Channeling the football ghost of Brian Westbrook, McFadden was a PPR nightmare in Week 1. His 13 receptions was the second-best mark in franchise history (Tim Brown holds the record with 14). However, his overall performance in standard formats wasn't quite as stellar. Yes, he finished with a very respectable 118 total yards, but he failed to find the end-zone and, as mentioned above, posted  a ghastly YPC. Miami, once again, is a run defense to fear. Arian Foster notched a fine fantasy day last week, but, the 'Fins largely kept the Texans ground game, one of the league's best, in check. Foster and Ben Tate combined for only 2.7 yards per carry. Randy Starks, in particular, was an animal, responsible for four stops. Jared Odrick and Cameron Wake also weren't pushovers. Run DMC is a marvelous talent who can beat you in a variety of ways, but given the difficult matchup and question marks surrounding Oakland's offense as a whole, he could struggle on South Beach.

Fearless Forecast: 17 carries, 61 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 24 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 11.5 fantasy points

Torrey Smith, Bal, WR (58-percent started)
Matchup: at Phi
Smith's 2012 campaign started out with a "Bang!" On the Ravens' first play from scrimmage Monday night versus Cincinnati, Joe Flacco uncorked a bomb, connecting with the wideout on an explosive 52-yard play. Unfortunately, Smith disappeared after that. He hauled in just one more catch for five yards. Another uneven effort could be in the offing. Yes, Brandon Weeden's 5.1 passer rating was nearly equal to the number of prom dates that rejected The Noise in high school, but much of the rookie's struggles were due to the exceptional play of Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie. The stifling corners combined for four pass deflections, conceding just two receptions (16.7 catch percentage). Flacco's soaring confidence in the no-huddle is a plus, but a road matchup against arguably the league's best secondary is daunting. Expect Smith to sour.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 47 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.7 fantasy points

Dez Bryant, Dal, WR (88-percent started)
Matchup: at Sea
Inconsistency continues to be the norm for Dez. A centerpiece of the Dallas attack in the first half against New York, he stayed in the shadows after halftime, grabbing just one pass in the third quarter. His final line (4-85-0) was laudable, but his low target yield (5) and Kevin Ogletree's emergence are a bit worrisome. In many ways, he's the new Vincent Jackson, a completely unreliable performer on a week-in, week-out basis. This week in Seattle, expect the seesaw to sink. Corners Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner are one dynamic duo. Week 1 in 'Zona, the pair did a masterful job keeping Larry Fitzgerald under wraps. Sure Tony Romo is light years better than John Skelton/Kevin Kolb, but considering the secondary's lock-down attitude, the 'Hawks' raucous home crowd and Dez's vulnerability to vanishing, he is a highly suspect option in Week 2. As Jerry Jones admitted this week, the young wideout, "Has to get better at everything he does."

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 38 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 6.8 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 2 LAMES

TEAM HUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK

Reader Record: 1-6 (14.3%)

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

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Flames: Spiller stampede ready to roll through KC

11 Sep
2012
by in General

Each week the Noise highlights 12-13 somewhat obscure, unobvious names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post the results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 2 Flames in the comments section below.

Andrew Luck, Ind, QB (11-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Min
The Peyton Manning comparisons to Luck are downright eery. Both are highly intelligent. Both exude leadership. Both were No. 1 picks. And both probably relish Papa John's pizza. Most remarkably, their NFL debuts were nearly identical (PM: 302-1-3, Luck: 309-1-3). Against Chicago, the rookie was, for the most part, uneven. At times, he exhibited superstar form, delivering passes crisply in the short-to-intermediate field. Other times, however, he pressed the issue, under-throwing balls that led to costly interceptions. But, as Reggie Wayne commented post-game, "Rome wasn't built in a day." Growing pains are par for the course for any inexperienced QB, even if his name is Robert Griffin III. In Luck's home debut, expect a more favorable outcome. Last week against Jacksonville, the Vikings made Blaine Gabbert look like vintage Mark Brunell, surrendering 260 yards and two touchdowns. Jared Allen could have a field day against an Indy frontline that yielded four sacks in Chicago, but when given time, look for Luck to dissect Minnesota's questionable Cover 2. Versus the Jags, Antoine Winfield allowed a catch rate of 66.7 percent. Meanwhile, fellow DB Chris Cook gave up a whopping 19.8 yards per catch — great news for Reggie Wayne and, if healthy, Austin Collie. Saddle up Luck in deeper leagues.

Fearless Forecast: 22-35, 266 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 13 rushing yards, 21.6 fantasy points 

C.J. Spiller, Buf, RB (30-percent started)
Matchup: vs. KC
In preseason play, the rusher was just somebody owners use to know. Spiller's tap-dancing style and uncomfortable number of negative plays buried him behind Fred Jackson on the depth-chart. However, after the incumbent exited stage left in New York due to a sprained knee, the backup resembled the explosive quicksilver that guided owners to championship glory late last year. His 56-yard TD scamper was a thing of beauty. He also forced a league-best eight missed tackles on just 16 total touches. Now with Jackson out for at least the next month, it's Spiller's time to shine. Look for him to again seize the moment. Kansas City, minus six starters on defense last week, is a team ravaged by injuries. Though it did a quality job bottling up Michael Turner in Week 1, don't bank on a repeat performance, with or without Tamba Hali. Buffalo, despite its shortcomings in the pass game, is capable of running the ball effectively. In terms of run-blocking, the offensive line is one of the AFC's best. Combine that with Spiller's fantastic versatility and likely 20-plus touches, and a top-five line is likely in order. Consider him must-start material in any sized league.

Fearless Forecast: 17 carries, 79 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 22 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.4 fantasy points

Stevan Ridley, NE, RB (42-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Ari
Riddle me this. Riddle me that. The Riddler's numbers will be phat. The ground centerpiece in New England's suddenly balanced attack, the second-year rusher was resplendent in Tennessee. Running behind a retooled Pats offensive line, he totaled 152 yards overall, racking up a ridiculous 82 yards after contact. New England hasn't had a top-12 fantasy producer at RB since the days of Corey Dillion, but Ridley could buck that trend. His powerful build and attacking style will continue to inflict plenty of damage between the tackles. Shane Vereen, once up to full speed, will likely supplant him on third downs, but the youngster has strong odds of splashing six on a consistent basis. The Pats will live inside the red-zone, especially this week. Arizona was highly active last week versus Seattle, limiting Marshawn Lynch to a bland 4.0 yards per carry. Darnell Docket, in particular, was outstanding. However, this is a team that hasn't fared well outside the UPS historically, especially when forced to travel east. When weighing the blowout potential and Bill Belichick's confidence in Ridley, the rusher is a slam-dunk RB2 in Week 2.

Fearless Forecast: 21 carries, 98 rushing yards, 1 reception, 7 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 17.3 fantasy points

Nate Burleson, Det, WR (4-percent started)
Matchup: at SF
Throughout the draft season many owners and analysts, including yours truly, were gaga for Titus Young. His eye-popping plays in camp and glowing headlines prompted many to prop him up on a pedestal. Mr. Burleson, our apologies. Though overshadowed by the Young hype, old reliable remains Matthew Stafford's clear-cut No. 2. In a hard-fought win versus St. Louis, Burleson enticed eight targets, hauling in six receptions for 69 yards. No question traveling to San Francisco is an intimidating assignment. Last week in Green Bay, Carlos Rogers and company did a reasonably good job capping Aaron Rodgers. Still, however, they allowed a 71.4 catch rate. With so much attention drawn to Calvin Johnson's side and given the Niners' staunch linebacker corps, Burleson could become the weapon of choice in the Lions' pass game. His 'shadow,' Tarell Brown, was abused by the Pack, giving up over 20 yards per catch. Plug him in as a WR2/3 in 12-team and deeper formats.

Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 64 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.9 fantasy points

Randall Cobb, GB, WR (12-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Chi
In a league where versatility is cherished, Cobb is worth his weight in cheddar. Green Bay's answer to Percy Harvin lined up in the backfield 19 times and also saw ample action in the slot in his 2012 debut versus San Francisco. The results, for the PPR masses, were dreamy (9-77-0). He also chipped in a nifty 75-yard punt return for a TD. Because Cedric Benson's hands were forged from stone and Alex Green is still not up to speed, Mike McCarthy's has essentially designated Cobb as his third-down back, a strategy that will likely continue. Chicago, which runs Cover 2 almost exclusively, is a defense vulnerable underneath, indicative in the copious numbers Coby Fleener and Wayne racked in Week 1. Because McCarthy wants to create mismatches and given the uncertain availability of Greg Jennings, the underrated slot machine is slated to hit pay-dirt. Pull the lever on the WR3 even in shallow formats.

Fearless Forecast: 7 receptions, 71 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.4 fantasy points

SHOCKER SPECIAL (Under 10-percent started)

Andrew Hawkins, Cin, WR  (0-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Cle
Just exactly who would complement budding star A.J. Green in Cincinnati was one of the exhibition season's greatest mysteries. A number of young, unexciting candidates were on the list, including third-round pick Mohamed Sanu, but it appears a former reality TV standout is the man for the job. Hawkins was one of the few highlights in Baltimore's declawing of the Bengals Monday night. The former Montreal Allouette and runner-up to Jesse Holley on "4th and Long" looked like a cross between Danny Amendola, Darren Sproles and a whippet. Targeted a team-high 11 times he snagged eight passes for 86 yards, exhibiting cartoon wheels (4.34 40-yard) and eye-catching elusiveness. Though he's no longer a secret, look for him to build on his initial effort. Cleveland executed well against Philadelphia in its opener, but the loss of Joe Haden to suspension in Week 2 will greatly hinder its performance in the encore. With coverage rotating to the side of Green, Hawkins could again thrive picking apart zone sets underneath. PPR owners in challenging formats need to say hello to this kitty.

Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions. 68 yards, 1 touchdown, 17.3 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 2 FLAMES

TEAM HUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK

Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Flames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Mondays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader Record: 4-4 (50.0%)

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

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Lames: Mile High disappointment expected for Peyton

04 Sep
2012
by in General

Each week the Noise highlights 10 bold names who he believes are destined to torpedo your team leave egg on his face. For those playing the Lames home edition, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues to qualify. As an accountability advocate, results, whether genius or moronic, will post the following week using the scoring system shown below. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 1 Lames in the comments section below.

Peyton Manning, Den, QB (65-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Pit
Deep down if you really believe Manning, nearly 20 months removed from taking his last regular season snap, will suddenly display vintage form against the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers defense, the Noise has a pallet of snake oil available for purchase. Full disclosure, I fully expect Manning to finish inside the QB top-12 this season, but early season expectations need to be tempered. As witnessed in preseason play (2:3 td:int split), he still needs to knock off the dust. Concerns over his lost arm strength have been greatly exaggerated, but don't be surprised if he relies on a dink-and-dunk style out of the gate, which plays perfectly into the hands of the Steelers. Pittsburgh may be aging in areas, but it's constrictive nature hasn't waned. It shouldn't be a surprise. Coordinator Dick LeBeau is a genius. And, when healthy, Troy Polamalu is seemingly omnipresent. Last year, despite injuries in key areas, Steely McBeam yielded a league low 5.6 yards per attempt and just 34 pass plays of 20-plus yards. Under the primetime lights, expect Manning to be mystified.

Fearless Forecast: 23-36, 263 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 19.2 fantasy points

DeMarco Murray, Dal, RB (91-percent started)
Matchup: at NYG
Because of  the high number of uncertainties at running back, Murray, sharpied in as the 'Boys primary rusher, experienced a major value spike in late drafts. Consistently going in the mid-second round over the first 2-3 weeks of August, he vaulted into the back half of Round 1 in a predominant amount of 12-team leagues, particularly PPR formats. The gushy feelings were justified. He's an explosive and versatile rusher who should net 18-22 touches per game. But don't expect the rising star to shine at the Meadowlands. The Giants' defensive strength is clearly in the trenches. Bookends Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora have always sniffed out the run incredibly well and man-eating tackle Linval Joseph is coming off a tremendous camp. Overall, the Giants' 4-3 is shaping up to be one of the league's stingiest. Look for it to feast on Dallas' very suspect offensive line, handicapping the rusher's value. On opening night, think of Murray only as more of a low-end RB2 in 12-team formats.

Fearless Forecast: 18 carries, 72 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 16 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 11.1 fantasy points

Frank Gore, SF, RB (77-percent started)
Matchup: at GB
For much of the preseason, Gore resembled a sloth with an uncontrollable thyroid condition. He looked chunky, slow and Betty White-old. Though he remains atop the depth chart, he is far from the only game in town. Kendall Hunter, who was spectacular this summer, is breathing down his neck. Meanwhile, the Football Frankenstein Brandon Jacobs could poach goal-line touches and LaMichael James third-down work. It's a complicated backfield. Gore should net roughly 15 touches in his 2012 debut, but the matchup is far from favorable. Green Bay, which took a step back defensively last year, is out to regain its once sterling reputation. The defensive backfield is still littered with questions, but, up front, the Packers should regain their mojo. Clay Matthews is one of the league's finest run defenders. And B.J. Raji and A.J. Hawk should ramp it up after a disappointing 2011. Last year, the Pack conceded 4.5 yards per carry at Lambeau. Expect that number to drop dramatically starting Week 1. Gore "The Snore" is about to make a cameo.


Fearless Forecast: 16 carries, 58 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 9 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.2 fantasy points

Mike Wallace, Pit, WR (89-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Den
Last week, Wallace finally penned his name on the dotted line after the Steelers front office refused to waver on its sign or sit stance. Now in uniform and back in the classroom, he's quickly absorbed much of Todd Haley's playbook. But memorizing plays and executing them on the field are two entirely different animals. Champ Bailey is also a concern. Though the corner voted for Grover Cleveland, twice, he is still one of the league's preeminent shadows. A year ago, the Broncos allowed a mere 17 pass plays beyond 25 yards, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. Meanwhile, Bailey and fellow DB Chris Harris, ranked inside the top-15 in coverage according to Pro Football Focus. Yes, Wallace is a go-route guy, but without a single rep in preseason play, rust will be visible. And don't forget how the Champ clamp limited him in the playoffs last year (3-26-0). For one-week only, consider alternatives.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 35 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 6.5 fantasy points

DeSean Jackson, Phi, WR (73-percent started)
Matchup: at Cle
After taking a mental vacation last year, Jackson enters 2012 focused and motivated. With a cushier bottom line and a tarnished image, he is out to prove he again belongs among the game's receiving elites. However, the Chihuahuas are slated to leave the Eagle grounded. Joe Haden, suspended four games after testing positive for Adderall, is currently in the appeals process, which should drag on beyond Week 1, making the shutdown corner available for the opener. If that scenario unfolds, Jackson will likely be in for a frustrating afternoon. A season ago Cleveland yielded just 43 pass plays of 20-plus yards, the second-fewest in the league. More impressively, Haden's assignments hauled in just 49.4-percent of their intended targets. Yes, it's possible the corner could stick on the more rounded Jeremy Maclin, but Sheldon Brown and Dimitri Patterson, both above average in coverage last year, are no pushovers. Add that to Jackson's one-dimensional makeup, and it could be a quiet week for the mouthy receiver.

Fearless Forecast: 3 receptions, 27 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 4.9 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 1 LAMES

TEAM HUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Lames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Mondays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

Other popular content on the Yahoo! network:
• Bold NFL predictions for Fantasy Football '12
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• Houston offensive coordinator resigns after stunning loss to Texas State
• omg!: Actor Michael Clarke Duncan dead at 54

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Flames: RG3 is about to drop bombs on the Bayou

03 Sep
2012
by in General

Each week the Noise highlights 12-13 somewhat obscure, unobvious names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. As an accountability advocate, results, whether genius or moronic, will post the following week using the scoring system shown below. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 1 Flames in the comments section below.

Robert Griffin III, Wash, QB (30-percent started)
Matchup: at NO
In exhibition play, the anti-Akili Smith gave viewers a preview of greatness to come. With the exception of one rough series in Chicago, he displayed exceptional command, precision and pocket poise over three preseason games, finishing 20-for-31 (64.5 completion percentage) for 193 yards, two touchdowns and zero picks. Many would say counting on a rookie in his first professional start is akin to trusting Clint Eastwood to make a coherent speech on an enormous political stage, but RG3 is up to the task. The Saints, already a suspect unit pre-bounty fallout, are a very exploitable defense. Defensive end Will Smith and linebacker Jonathan Vilma, who were handed down multi-week vacations for their part in the scandal, won't be in attendance. Starting linebackers Curtis Lofton (ankle) and David Hawthorne (meniscus surgery) could also miss action. 'Nawlins, the 10th-most generous unit to QBs a season ago, will undoubtedly be one of the league's most matchup-friendly teams, especially early on. Add that to Drew Brees' indestructibility at home (328 ypg, 29:6 TD:INT in eight homes games last year), and it's likely a point-scoring bonanza occurs. A Cam Newton-esque debut is certainly within the realm of possibility. Eat fresh, gamers.

Fearless Forecast: 26-40, 284 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 29 rushing yards, 28.1 fantasy points

Rashad Jennings, Jax, RB (31-percent started)
Matchup: at Min
Maurice Jones-Drew, doing his best Chris Johnson impersonation, ended his holdout at the eleventh hour, reporting to Jags camp Sunday. What a party-crasher. Jennings, who looked every bit a three-down workhorse running with the first-team in preseason play, was on the fast-track toward fantasy stardom. The Jags offense, which resembled a rusted-out Yugo last year, is now a souped-up Ford Taurus. No longer vertically inept, it should execute at a respectable level. If that happens, Jennings should thrive during his one game audition. At 6-foot-1, 228-pounds, the Liberty product is a load to lasso. He's brutish between the tackles, versatile and, most importantly, extremely motivated. If Jennings explodes against Minnesota, he could earn additional touches in what will likely be a loose platoon once the incumbent gets up to full speed. LBs Chad Greenway, Erin Henderson and defensive tackle Kevin Williams were fairly stiff against the run last year, but were far from the impregnable fortress Minnesota was just two short years ago. Ten rushers scored at least 12 fantasy points against the Vikes in standard formats in 2011, up from four the year before . Opportunity knocks for Jennings. Don't expect him to spoil it.

[Bold NFL predictions for Fantasy Football '12]

Fearless Forecast: 21 carries, 97 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 9 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.1 fantasy points

Kevin Smith, Det, RB (39-percent started)
Matchup: vs. StL
Most members of the fantasy community harbor lukewarm feelings for Smith. His recurring ankle problems and fair speed leave a lot to be desired. But, when healthy, he's a skilled back who contributes solidly via ground and air. His 201 total yard, three-TD mauling of Carolina Week 11 was one of four double-digit performances in his seven games last year. With Mikel Leshoure out due to suspension and Jahvid Best on the PUP, he's the only game in town, tender wheel and all. St. Louis, historically vulnerable against the run, should undergo a culture change with Jeff Fisher, but don't expect an overnight turnaround. System implementation and talent-stocking take time. Some strides will be made, but this is a club that allowed 161.8 total yards per game to RBs a season ago, the sixth-most in the NFL. Make no mistake, Detroit is a pass-first, past-often club, but because of Smith's plus hands, he's a strong candidate for 3-5 catches per game, enhancing his worth in PPR leagues. In what should be a one-sided contest, expect the rusher to rack the points on roughly 15-20 touches. Employ him as a RB2 even in 10-team formats.

Fearless Forecast: 15 carries, 67 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 14 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.9 fantasy points

Malcom Floyd, SD, WR (22-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Oak
Blessed with the neck of Merton Hanks and the long strides of Herman Moore, Floyd is a gangling downfield weapon who, quietly, could be on the verge of a breakout campaign. Many publications talked up Vincent Brown and Robert Meachem pre-camp, but with the former out for the next several weeks due to a fractured ankle and the latter coming off a tepid preseason, the Chargers' No. 2 WR from 2011 is in an excellent position to build on last year's success. Though injuries have occasionally plagued him, Floyd has performed terrifically when off the trainer's table. His 9.6 per game average a season ago ranked No. 20 among wide receivers. Oakland's defense, particularly up front, appears much improved. Still, the overhauled secondary is loaded with question marks. Veteran corners Ronald Bartell and Shawntae Spencer, on paper, are marginal options. Weighing that and considering Ryan Mathews likely won't be in the backfield, despite his return to the non-contact portion of practice Monday, Norv Turner will lean heavily on Philip Rivers' arm Monday night, increasing Floyd's chances for a profitable week. Promote him to WR3 or FLEX in 12-team and deeper leagues.

[Donovan McNabb accepts reality, moves toward a career in broadcasting]

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 86 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.4 fantasy points

Greg Olsen, Car, TE (19-percent started)
Matchup: at TB
The He-Man doppelganger has gained considerable momentum over the past couple weeks. Steve Smith's foot infection, minimal excitement over Brandon LaFell and Ron Rivera's bold prediction Olsen could be the next Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, moved the target's needle in late drafts. Those that played the patience game and nabbed the ex-Bear in the double-digit rounds could cash immediately. Linebackers Mason Foster, Lavonte David and Quincy Black are outmatched. Last season, Foster and Black ranked near the bottom of the league in pass coverage, together surrendering a near 80-percent catch rate. Look for offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski, who was an instrumental force behind the rise of Antonio Gates in San Diego and Kellen Winslow in Cleveland, to attack Tampa's weakness. Olsen has always possessed the physical tools to be a star, but inconsistencies in route-running and the presence of Jeremy Shockey hindered him. Now with Shockey out of the picture, he should emerge as Cam's No. 2, attracting upwards of 7-9 targets per game. Coming off a standout camp and given the fantastic matchup, look for him to make a great first impression. Wield the Power Sword, deep leaguers.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 52 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.9 fantasy points

SHOCKER SPECIAL (Under 10-percent started)

Alfred Morris, Wash, RB (1-percent started) (Or Evan Royster, Roy Helu, Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, Maurice Clarett, He Hate Me ... whoever starts at RB for the 'Skins is a must play)
Matchup: at NO
In order to get a leg up in this business sometimes you have to be a little nutty. Attempting to read Lucifer Shanahan's innermost thoughts is usually a futile exercise, but it's possible Morris gets the first crack to establish himself as the 'Skins' lead rusher. Tim Hightower was kicked to the curb last week, Roy Helu is slated for third-down duties and Evan Royster, though listed atop the team's initial depth-chart, could be the fallback option on early downs. Then again, who the hell knows. As Chris Cooley noted last year, everyone, even players in the locker-room, were routinely kept in the dark about the RB pecking order. If Morris nets the start, bank on him seizing the moment. Admittedly, the sixth-round rookie isn't anything special. He's tight-hipped, a suspect blocker and had a fumbling problem in college. But that's the beauty of a one-cut-and-go scheme. If you're an effective downhill runner with quality vision and break-tackle ability, you can succeed, provided you squeeze the rock. See Foster, Arian. As stated above, the Saints are hurting defensively. Key losses due to injury and suspension definitely favors Washington's above average offensive line. The Hogs will lead Morris to the trough. Recall last year, a healthier New Orleans team conceded 5.2 yards per carry to rushers. Because of its depleted state, that number could rise this season. Again, assuming he carves out a substantial role, expect "The Butler" to serve the Saints.

Fearless Forecast: 18 carries, 83 rushing yards, 1 reception, 5 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.6 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 1 FLAMES

TEAM HUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Flames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Mondays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

NFL video from Yahoo! Sports:

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All-Mancrush 2012: Despite injury flaws, Mathews very attractive

28 Aug
2012
by in General

mancrush (n.) — a strong, platonic infatuation for a distinguished or, more often, uncelebrated fantasy sports commodity.

Speaking as a purveyor of the mantastic, intense feelings for a particular player are loaded with potential consequences. Anyone who's drooled over and therefore outstretched arms to acquire high upside producers can empathize. Severed tendons, unbearable 'Ls', lopsided trades and, worst of all, leaguemate mockery are common results for overzealous gamblers who don't exercise objectivity.

Over the years, these obsessions have caused yours truly to run the emotional gamut. Some exaggerated predictions have yielded positive results (e.g. Aaron Rodgers in 2008, Arian Foster 2009 and Matthew Stafford 2011). Other forecasts, meanwhile, have led to endless reader ridicule and weeks of liquid therapy (e.g. Pierre Thomas '09, Mike Williams (Sea) '10 and Felix Jones last year).

Not swayed by my painfully mediocre track-record, I'm confident this year's class of undervalued fantasy darlings will live up to the hype. Consider my minimally ranked reputation staked.

The Noise presents to you the 2012 All-Mancrush team:

QUARTERBACK

Robert Griffin III, Wash (Noise QB Rank: 9)
"Bob" has yet to log a single regular season down, but many are projecting Offensive ROY hardware for the No. 2 overall pick. They should. Completely unfazed by the spotlight, RGIII has looked every bit a future superstar. Within Shany's bootleg offense, he was largely composed, smart and precise in the preseason. His struggles against Chicago were only temporary. Several pundits have compared him to Cam Newton, which is lazy. An unrefined Steve Young is fairer. Unlike the Panther, he is a pass-first, run-second QB who can squeeze throws into tight windows. In preseason action, he completed 64.5 percent of his attempts for two scores and zero interceptions. By design, he didn't run much in exhibition play, but once meaningful games get underway, expect Lucifer to remove the kid gloves. And don't worry about his alleged mediocre arsenal. Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss and Fred Davis are quite useful. His rookie year will be the first in a long line of stellar seasons.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 226.7 passing yards per game, 23 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 37.3 rushing yards per game, 5 rushing touchdowns

Deep Feelings: Russell Wilson, Sea, Jake Locker, Ten

RUNNING BACK

Doug Martin, TB (Noise RB Rank: 13)
Comparing Martin to Ray Rice is a bit shortsighted. "Muscle Hamster," though blessed with a fantastic nickname, is nowhere near the caliber of rusher Rice is. In reality, he's reminiscent of another Martin, Curtis, a well-rounded back who doesn't stand out in any single category. Though lacking the 'wow' factor, he should be highly productive. His vision, cutback ability and versatility aren't to be taken lightly Yes, the loss of guard Davin Joseph hurts, but the remaining components of the Tampa offensive line are talented. Greg Schiano's conservative, pound-you-into-submission mindset won't change. The offense, as a whole, could mirror Kansas City's, which is great news for those who invest in his services. With LeGarrette Blount far back in the rear-view mirror, the rookie is slated to rack roughly 15-20 touches per game immediately, including totes inside the red-zone.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 239 carries, 1,051 rushing yards, 48 receptions, 313 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns

Fred Jackson, Buf (Noise RB Rank: 11)
Jackson is that old flame you continue to go back to. Despite his advanced age, he's versatile, reliable and incredibly difficult to wrangle. His 3.7 yards per contact after attempt was tops among rushers a season ago. Gailey hasn't revealed exactly how carries will be distributed between the vet and C.J. Spiller, but based on preseason performance, it seems likely Jackson will tug roughly 65-70-percent of the load. Spiller hasn't exactly made a positive impression this summer, resembling the rusher that routinely tap-danced behind the line when he entered the league three years ago. Considering Jackson's marvelous skill set, appreciable track-record and likely 17-20 touch per game share, he should turn a handsome profit. As noted before, the Bills boast a very good offensive line and Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't shy about checking down.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 248 carries, 1,166 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 381 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns

Rashad Jennings, Jax (Noise RB Rank: 31)
The third-year rusher, fawned over by yours truly since he was stolen in Round 7 of the 2009 draft, possesses star qualities. Standing at 6-foot-1, 228-pounds, he's the antithesis of Maurice Jones-Drew in size-terms. However, his powerful interior running style, plus burst and versatility are reminiscent of his pint-sized teammate. Over 123 career attempts he's averaged a stout 5.4 yards per carry. And back in 2010 — he missed the entire 2011 season with a nonsurgical knee injury — he was the third-best RB in yards after contact per attempt. Through three preseason games, he's compiled a standout 4.9 yards per carry. Because MJD was a no show last weekend, Mike Mularkey revealed Monday he is fully prepared to hand Jennings the keys Week 1 at Minnesota. Given Blaine Gabbert's strides this preseason and Jacksonville's rigid offensive line, Jennings should roar out of the gate with a 90-110-yard, 1-TD effort. If that happens, he'll surely carve out a substantial role even when the reigning rush king inevitably caves.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 174 carries, 868 rushing yards, 22 receptions, 169 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns

Deep Feelings: Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl, Alex Green, GB, Robert Turbin, Sea,

WIDE RECEIVERS

Antonio Brown, Pit (Noise WR Rank: 10)
Mike Wallace may finally be back in the mix, but Brown is the Steelers' top stat-sheet stuffer. Coming off a very respectable 69-1108-2 campaign, the third-year product is primed to explode. Pittsburgh's ground game is a complete mess, which should prompt Todd Haley to exercise Ben Roethlisberger's arm early and often. Expect Brown to benefit. This preseason he's morphed into a complete receiver. Not the home run hitter Wallace is, he can run every route imaginable, is highly explosive and plays fearlessly. His 57-yard TD scamper on a quick screen two weeks ago against Buffalo is fantastic propaganda. Comfortable in PIT's redesigned offense, he should widen last year's 124-to-114 target gap with Wallace considerably. Bank on Brown developing into one of the most consistent producers in the virtual game.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 83 receptions, 1,213 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns

Eric Decker, Den (Noise WR Rank: 15)
Questions about Peyton Manning's arm strength and accuracy beyond 10-15 yards were answered in Week 3 of the preseason. The venerable QB packed plenty of pepper, distributing the ball with zip to all points on the field, including two TD passes to Decker. The former Golden Gopher is a PPR gem in-the-making. His sharp route-running skills, plus-size and tacky hands are similar to legendary Bronco Ed McCaffery. Demaryius Thomas will also be heavily involved, but Decker's reliability in the short-to-intermediate field cannot be overstated. Provided Peyton remains upright and is impacted little by the outdoor elements, Decker is in position to potentially seize the receptions title in the AFC. And, no, I'm not riding the 'Pineapple Express.'

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 94 receptions, 1,188 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns

Titus Young, Det (Noise WR Rank: 30)
The mere scent of Calvin Johnson draws DBs from far and wide. In a class by himself, it's understandable why defensive coordinators throw the kitchen sink at the multi-time All-Pro. That reason alone is why Young is so attractive this year. Lost in Matthew Stafford and Johnson's otherworldly seasons, the tertiary target was occasionally effective in his first season. His 48-607-6 line was quite useful to owners in challenging formats. Dominating training camp headlines, he's reportedly had a tremendous summer. Because he's tied to an elite QB in a pass-heavy offense and will see many single coverages, it's logical he takes a quantum leap forward in the followup, developing into a top-flight WR3 in 12-teamers. For now, the Lion sleeps tonight.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 69 receptions, 1,053 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

Deep Feelings: Davone Bess, Mia, Danny Amendola, StL, Josh Gordon, Cle

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen, Car (Noise TE Rank: 10)
After years of flirtations, is this the year the He-Man lookalike taps into the "Power of Greyskull?" I think so. Make no mistake, Steve Smith, when not hampered by gangrene, is the focus of the Panthers' vertical attack. At 33, he still has plenty left in the tank. But Olsen, not Brandon LaFell, is Cam Newton's true No. 2. This summer, he's drawn rave reviews, tightening his routes while catching everything in sight. Ron Rivera even went on record predicting "it's possible" the tight end posts similar numbers to what Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham accomplished a season ago. Because Gronk and Graham are tied to more proven signal callers, that forecast is very fearless. Still, Cam's expected advancements as a passer should vault Olsen into the position's top-12. His excellent blend of size and speed have always been alluring. With Jeremy Shockey, who was lined up in the crosshairs 62 times a season ago, no longer stealing away looks, Olsen is a near lock for 110-plus targets this year. Stock up.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 70 receptions,  804 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

Deep Feelings: Kyle Rudolph, Min, Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen, Ind

MOST VALUABLE CRUSH (MVC)

Ryan Mathews, SD (Noise RB Rank: 5)
I know what you're thinking. The receiving end of a Super Macho Man uppercut sounds more appealing than dealing with Mathews' constant setbacks and occasional bouts of fumblitis. Despite his impressive natural talents, he is the essence of frustration. Totally get it. But as discussed numerous times previously, the situation is ideal. The third-year rusher, ahead of schedule in his recovery from a broken clavicle, will be loaded up like a rented mule by Week 3, netting roughly 18-22 touches per game. Ronnie Brown and Le'Ron McClain aren't significant threats. San Diego's offense, though not as potent with Vincent Jackson and, for the next seven weeks, Vincent Brown in tow, still packs quite a wallop. The offensive line, returning several key members from last year's team, is nothing to scoff at. Combine that with Mathews' dedication to conditioning this past off-season and versatile skill set and it adds up to a marquee campaign. His top-10 finish in per game average among RBs over 2011's final five weeks was only a preview. Consider his injury-influenced discount a blessing in disguise. Hopefully you stole him in Round 2 or, in leagues filled with fraidy cats, a little later. Cherish the love.

Fearless Forecast (15 games): 258 carries, 1,238 rushing yards, 60 receptions, 511 receiving yards, 13 total touchdowns

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

Tags: Antonio Brown, , , , , , Rank, reminiscent, rusher, versatility
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All-Avoid Team 2012: Don’t overpay for Peyton

21 Aug
2012
by in General

The plague, lima beans, law enforcement, dustups with Chuck Norris … everyday we all purposely try to dodge the perils of life.

Fantasyland's good citizens are no different.

In a violent sport where injury and ineptitude lurk around every corner, gamers constantly strive to reduce risk in the hope it will propel them to the winner's circle.

Entrust Peyton Manning as your QB1, and your odds of racing past a checkered flag could be minimized.

Once the king of consistency, Manning, for the first time ever in his Hall of Fame career, is smothered in doubt. Multiple neck surgeries, unfamiliar surroundings, throwing limitations and a different system have many people, including the Noise, second guessing whether or not No. 18 can regain his pre-injury form.

To be fair, preseason reviews on elder Manning have been largely positive. In the short-field, he's delivered passes with vintage crispness and precision. Outside three interceptions, the four-time MVP has shown glimpses of his old self. Through two games, he's 20-for-30 for 221 yards averaging a solid 7.4 yards per attempt.


However, his deep touch remains suspect. Earlier this month, observers noted his throws beyond 20 yards floated and fluttered, often wildly missing intended targets. His shortcomings weren't on display versus Chicago in Denver's first preseason game. Peyton played it close to the vest, working the field within a 10-15 yard box. But in his latest exhibition effort, Saturday against Seattle, he was a bit more liberal, taking shots downfield for the first time in game action.

The results were not pretty.

Again, Manning was quite effective on high-percentage attempts, but he repeatedly airmailed receivers beyond the sticks. On a 40-yard streak to tight end Joel Dreessen, he overthrew the 6-foot-4 sequoia by a good 3-4 yards, dropping the ball onto strong safety Jeron Johnson's lap (Watch the play here). Uncharacteristic.

Fluttering deep balls aren't Peyton's only ills. Though he popped back up after getting knocked down against the 'Hawks, durability is still a concern. His response could be much different when he takes a blindside hit.

More worrisome is his track-record in outdoor games. His rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt and touchdowns per game are all lower compared to his performance in a climate controlled venue. With a Week 2 matchup in the Georgia Dome his only indoor clash, it's certainly possible the elements could hinder his overall production.

At this point in his career, he could transform into a Kurt Warner-type, a signal caller who nickel and dimes opponents. Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Jacob Tamme and, once healthy, Ronnie Hillman, makeup a respectable arsenal. Still going just outside the top-50 in Yahoo! leagues (50.5 ADP, QB8), he's not worth the fifth-round pick in 12-team drafts. Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and his Indy replacement, Andrew Luck are better values in terms of draft position.

This season, Peyton's comeback trail will be littered with potholes.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 252.3 yards per game, 28 passing touchdowns, 19 interceptions, 45 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, QB11

Here are seven additional headaches to circumvent in drafts this season. In other words, your cheat-sheet:

Philip Rivers, SD, QB
ADP:  69.5, QB10
The pro-Bolt crowd feels Rivers is destined for a rebound. After a tumultuous season in which the Chargers again failed to deliver on their playoff promise and the QB recorded a career-worst 25 turnovers, those outside of San Diego are more pessimistic. With Ryan Mathews potentially sidelined for the first couple weeks of the regular season, the former Pro Bowler could rage early. But Norv Turner is expected to lean heavily on the run once Mathews is healthy, possibly leaving Rivers' gun-in-holster. Additionally, there are many question marks in the receiving corps outside Antonio Gates. Robert Meachem, though a decent downfield weapon, isn't as talented as the departed Vincent Jackson. And the loss of emerging stud Vincent Brown to a broken foot is bigger blow than most think. To be fair, he finished 2011 No. 8 in per game average mong passers despite his woes. Sadly, though, his stock could dip further this time around.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 263.8 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 38 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jax, RB
ADP:  9.1, RB5
The holdout, despite whispers he could cave soon, may not cross Shad Kahn's deep line-in-the-sand anytime soon. His trade demand, reported by Adam Schefter late Tuesday night, is a strong indication that won't happen, possibly ever. It may seem crazy not to grant MJD's wishes with the back coming off the franchise's first rushing title, but the superb play of contingency plan Rashad Jennings this preseason has made the decision easy. The backup has netted 5.1 yards per carry in exhibition action, close to his 5.4 career regular season mark. Even if MJD returns to the field tomorrow, Jennings will see substantial touches once meaningful games get underway. Add that with the wear and tear MoJo has experienced over the past three years and the Jaguars desire to throw more, and he's a very dicey selection in the back half of Round 2. Learn from Chris Johnson's debacle from a season ago. Back away from the fire.

Fearless Forecast (14 games): 229 carries, 1,010 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 274 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns

DeMarco Murray, Dal, RB
ADP:  27.1, RB12
A fixture on several pundit "breakout" lists, Murray is a dud in disguise. Yes, he is the unrivaled starter in Dallas, but the Cowboys' injury misfortunes (Jason Witten (Spleen), Miles Austin (Hamstring), Dez Bryant (patella tendonitis)) and penetrable offensive line raise red flags. Murray's unfavorable upright running style and general fragility, evident in the numerous lower-body injuries he suffered at Oklahoma and broken foot that cut his rookie season short last year, are major knocks. Also, even though most of the fantasy community has great disdain for Felix Jones, the No. 2 will carve out a larger role than most think. And let's not forget Jason Garrett's sketchy play-calling inside the 10. This star shouldn't shine for you.

Fearless Forecast (12 games): 199 carries, 872 rushing yards, 28 receptions, 193 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns

Michael Turner, Atl, RB
ADP: 39.7, RB15
Andy Behrens wrote a compelling argument denouncing the anti-Burner revolution. Unfortunately, he couldn't be more wrong. The fast-paced Falcons offense simply isn't suited for the clunky back's game. His high odometer reading, advanced age and straight line style aren't a good fit. He's also shown signs of a Shaun Alexander-like regression. Last year, omitting his 172-yard effort against the league's worst run D, Tampa, he tallied a lowly 3.5 yards per carry from Week 12 on. Looking extremely sluggish in preseason action, he's done little to dispel a significant decline isn't in his near future. Falcons head coach Mike Smith's repeated declarations No. 2 Jacquizz Rodgers is a "three-down back" is definitive proof of the organization's decreasing confidence in Turner. At pick No. 40, let someone else swallow cyanide.

Fearless Forecast (14 games): 207 attempts, 746 rushing yards, 16 receptions, 88 receiving yards, 5 rushing touchdowns

Andre Johnson, Hou, WR
ADP:  23.8, WR5
When operating at full-speed, Johnson is one of the league's premier receivers. He's big, ox-strong, speedy and athletic. However, he can't seem to avoid banana peels, felled by various ailments in recent seasons. Only twice since 2007 has No. 80 suited up all 16 games. Without him on the field for chunks of the past two years, Houston has evolved into a run-first juggernaut, spearheaded by Arian Foster and, to a lesser extent, Ben Tate. Even when Matt Schaub was in uniform last year, a stretch of 10 games, Gary Kubiak called "pass" just 42-percent of the time. Given the risks involved, he is an overpriced commodity at his current ADP. Pass on the headache.

Fearless Forecast (13 games): 73 receptions, 1,043 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

Wes Welker, NE, WR
ADP: 29.0, WR8
With PPR leagues the exception, Tom Brady's most trusted underneath ally is terribly overrated. Coming off a career-best 1,569 yards and nine touchdowns, investors are dropping heavy coin on the sticky-fingered wideout. Though another 100 receptions are again achievable, his yardage output and TD total will most certainly drop. With Gronk, Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd clamoring for catches, Brady simply has too many mouths to feed. Expect numbers closer to his TD-starved 2009 and 2010 campaigns. In fantasy, the adage "Never pay for a career year" often applies. This year, Welker is a prime example.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 101 receptions, 1,168 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

Mike Wallace, Pit, WR
ADP: 32.0, WR10
After weeks of trying to pry extra cash out of a franchise that typically doesn't bend to player demands, it appears "60 Minutes'" time is up. On Tuesday, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported the Steelers' leading receiver from a season ago plans to sign his tender and return to camp this weekend. The move is a monumental step in rectifying his tarnished fantasy image, but his prospects of meeting or exceeding what he accomplished in 2011 remains questionable. While away from the Steelers, offensive coordinator Todd Haley installed a new system. That matched with Antonio Brown's emergence has Wallace climbing uphill. If he wants to make an early season impact, his playbook crash course will have to go smoothly. Be smart. If you plan to invest in a Pittsburgh WR this year, dole out the extra dollar for the better-rounded Brown.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 61 receptions, 1,121 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
ADP: 16.7, TE2
Brutishly strong. Handsome. Filthy rich. A connoisseur of adult film stars. We all would love to be Gronk. After a record-shattering season in which he snagged 17 touchdowns, many are shelling out big bucks for his services. Commonly, he's gone in the top-half of Round 2 in 12-team drafts, but, on occasion, has absurdly climbed into the the first-round. Considering the incredible depth at the tight end position and his likely TD downturn — Lloyd will wrest away several downfield targets — he isn't worth snapping tendons for at his current ADP. Hernandez, going some 40 picks later, is actually the better Patriots TE value. Over the last five weeks of '11, Brady actually lined up Hernandez in the cross-hairs more often. Expect that trend to continue.

Fearless Forecast (16 games): 78 receptions, 1,058 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns

Others Dudes to Dodge: Adrian Peterson, Min, RB, Frank Gore, SF, RB, Miles Austin, Dal, WR

Can't get enough Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, Scott Pianowski, Dalton Del Don and "The Noise?" Listen to The Fantasy Freak Show (Now on iTunes) every Friday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Yahoo! Sports Radio

Other popular content on Yahoo! Sports:
• Fantasy: Bold predictions for the 2012 season
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Tags: back, , , , , , MJD, , Philip Rivers, , , touchdowns, winner's circle
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