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Despite the fact that the season has started and lineups have been penciled in, Sexy Pick Syndrome (SPS) can still hurt your fantasy ball club. For some, foolish trades will be made to acquire said sexy pick. Others, will drop a useful player to snag the next big thing. The smart ones will hype up their sexy picks in hopes of dealing them to the fantasy baseball sheep- the fantasy baseball owners who don't read the GNUru. In today's feature, the GNUru will examine Brad Hawpe. Mr. Hawpe gained fantasy baseball notoriety after a hot start to the 2006 season. Although he cooled off as the season continued on, Hawpe has been a popular sleeper candidate of the Fantasy Baseball Hype Network (CBS, ESPN, FOX, Yahoo). To confuse matters more, Hawpe is 27 years old so that must mean he is bound to do big things in 2007, right? To determine that, let's have a look at Hawpe's career numbers.
 Proper Name: Bradley Bonte Hawpe
Born: June 22, 1979
Fort Worth, TX
Height: 6-3
Weight: 205 lbs.
Age: 27
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SEASON
|
AB
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
2004
|
105
|
3
|
9
|
11
|
34
|
1
|
1
|
0.248
|
0.322
|
0.400
|
0.722
|
|
2005
|
305
|
9
|
47
|
43
|
70
|
2
|
2
|
0.262
|
0.350
|
0.403
|
0.753
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|
2006
|
499
|
22
|
84
|
74
|
123
|
5
|
5
|
0.293
|
0.383
|
0.515
|
0.898
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|
SPLIT
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bitmap Away
|
469
|
22
|
69
|
68
|
119
|
3
|
4
|
0.284
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0.374
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0.495
|
0.869
|
|
Day
|
254
|
7
|
35
|
44
|
62
|
2
|
3
|
0.252
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0.361
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0.421
|
0.782
|
|
Dome
|
58
|
2
|
7
|
4
|
11
|
0
|
1
|
0.190
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0.242
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0.362
|
0.604
|
|
Grass
|
899
|
34
|
139
|
127
|
225
|
8
|
8
|
0.275
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0.363
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0.462
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0.825
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Home
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440
|
12
|
71
|
60
|
108
|
5
|
4
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0.270
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0.355
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0.432
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0.787
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|
Night
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655
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27
|
105
|
84
|
165
|
6
|
5
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0.287
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0.366
|
0.481
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0.847
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|
Open
|
851
|
32
|
133
|
124
|
216
|
8
|
7
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0.283
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0.373
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0.471
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0.844
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Turf
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10
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0
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1
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1
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2
|
0
|
0
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0.500
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0.545
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0.700
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1.245
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vs. Left
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110
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4
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15
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12
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41
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0
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1
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0.227
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0.309
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0.400
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0.709
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vs. Right
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799
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30
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125
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116
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186
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8
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7
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0.284
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0.372
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0.473
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0.845
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While Hawpe's numbers show his potential to be an impact fantasy baseball player, there really isn't anything behind the numbers to suggest he is in store for a big, breakout season. Much of the optimism surrounding Hawpe this year is due to 2 popular myths. One (1), Hawpe is turning 27 and the baseball fairies sprinkle their magical pixie dust on all 27 year old players and two (2) numbers in limited action can predict how a player will do in a full season.
I really don't think I need to explain how silly the age 27 myth truly is as I have touched on the subject numerous times. So that leaves the GNUru to tackle the attempt by many to extrapolate numbers produce in limited action, over an entire season. It just plain doesn't work. I could answer that by using a few examples: Craig Wilson, Tony Clark, or Wily Mo Pena. Their power numbers are up there with the best when considering HRs per at bat. However, when these players get full time playing duties, their numbers rapidly decline. Hawpe offers further proof of this as he got off to a blazing start but quickly cooled down.
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SPLIT
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AB
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
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April
|
94
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7
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18
|
13
|
24
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1
|
3
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0.362
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0.439
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0.670
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1.109
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May
|
90
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4
|
15
|
12
|
23
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1
|
0
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0.289
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0.373
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0.511
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0.884
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June
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73
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4
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13
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12
|
21
|
0
|
0
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0.260
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0.365
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0.493
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0.858
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July
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84
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0
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5
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12
|
23
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0
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1
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0.274
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0.361
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0.369
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0.730
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August
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82
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4
|
13
|
13
|
19
|
2
|
0
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0.293
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0.389
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0.500
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0.889
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September
|
73
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3
|
18
|
11
|
12
|
1
|
1
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0.260
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0.353
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0.521
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0.874
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October
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3
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0
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2
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1
|
1
|
0
|
0
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0.333
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0.500
|
0.667
|
1.167
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Pre-All Star
|
290
|
15
|
49
|
39
|
77
|
2
|
3
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0.310
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0.392
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0.562
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0.954
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As you can see by the above stats, the league caught up with Hawpe. After a fantastic April, Hawpe was nothing more than an average fantasy outfielder.
So the GNUru's take home message is that Hawpe is a solid fantasy outfielder to own but keep your projections realistic and temper your level of investment!
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